College Football Playoff race 2025: Michigan, Florida face big Week 2 tests as nonconference play heats up

It’s never too early to talk about the College Football Playoff. This is especially true in the 12-team era, which provides expanded opportunity and magnifies the impact of wins and losses during any part of the season. 

So that means Week 2 is just as important as Week 14, especially as the contenders try and create some distance between themselves and the rest of the pack. Nonconference play also allows schools to stack some important wins before the difficulty ratchets up once league play begins. 

Though the second week of the 2025 season isn’t as loaded with ranked matchups as Week 1 was, there are plenty of College Football Playoff hopefuls in action. Here’s a look at the Week 2 games that matter in the playoff race, and the stakes for each team involved. 

The most anticipated Illinois football season maybe ever got started with a routine 52-3 tune-up against Western Illinois. Now a real test awaits. The Fighting Illini don’t have the strongest schedule this season. They play just two ranked opponents and seven Big Ten schools that finished the 2024 campaign with a losing conference record. While that could work in their favor, it also means they they could hardly afford a slip-up against a nonconference opponent outside of the top 25. 

Duke’s in a similar boat when it comes to strength of schedule, but the Blue Devils don’t enter this game with nearly the same level of hype. A win would certainly change that. In fact, a win is necessary if Duke even wants to enter the realm of College Football Playoff contender. This is the type of nonconference clash that can certainly elevate their status. 

Iowa State already has two impressive wins. The Cyclones beat a previously ranked Kansas State squad in Ireland in a marquee Week 0 game and then followed that up by stomping a very good FCS program in South Dakota. Last season, Iowa State used an early win against a ranked Iowa squad to propel itself to the most successful season in program history. This year, a ranked Iowa State squad is trying to hold serve against an underdog Iowa team while notching an impressive nonconference win before the rigors of Big 12 play begin. 

Iowa would love nothing more than to spoil its in-state rivals lofty goals. A Hawkeyes victory would, obviously, open some eyes and position Kirk Ferentz’s side as a ranked team exiting September. It would also add some leeway to a conference schedule that features tough trappings like No. 2 Penn State and No. 6 Oregon — both games at home. 

A seismic clash versus No. 3 LSU looms next week. Florida knows that it cannot overlook South Florida beforehand. The Bulls played Alabama tough in 2023 and opened their season with a big win against Boise State, which represented the Group of Six in the College Football Playoff last season. Florida also knows that it needs a win Saturday. Beyond LSU await three more ranked opponents, including No. 5 Miami (FL) and No. 7 Texas. At this point, South Florida is the type of Group of Six opponent that actually looks good on a resume.

The implications of this game are rather obvious for South Florida. Beating Boise State is one thing, but downing a top-15 SEC opponent is an achievement of an entirely different caliber. Do that and the Bulls will be the prohibitive favorite to make the CFP from the Group of Six ranks. 

Michigan went from national championship in 2023 to 8-5 in 2024 thanks in large part to a roster reset and some poor quarterback play. The Wolverines went all in to fix the quarterback issue by signing Bryce Underwood, 2025’s top recruiting prospect. Underwood immediately won the starting job and delivered with 251 yards passing and one touchdown in his first collegiate action. Going from New Mexico to Oklahoma is a steep learning curve. The benefits of beating the Sooners are obvious, though Michigan could survive a loss thanks to its schedule and standing in the Big Ten. 

Oklahoma solved its own quarterback issues by snagging John Mateer from the transfer portal and poaching his offensive coordinator, Ben Arbuckle, from Washington State. Michigan’s defense will be a nice early test for the new-look Sooners offense. Oklahoma touts a top-20 ranking entering this contest, but it still feels like the Sooners have to prove themselves as a national competitor coming off a brutal 6-7 season in 2024. Oklahoma is a 5.5-point betting favorite according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Dark Horse Game of the Week 

James Madison at Louisville (Friday)

This could be considered a double dark horse, as both James Madison and Louisville are flying under the radar when it comes to College Football Playoff outlook. The path is there for each school, though. James Madison won nine games in its first year under coach Bob Chesney and the Dukes are trying to build off of that success by pushing for a Sun Belt championship. Upsetting Louisville would propel the program to new heights, and it would also resonate with the selection committee by the time December rolls around. 

The ACC is fairly wide open this year. Clemson and Miami gobble up all the media attention, while SMU is hanging around the top after its appearance in the ACC Championship Game last season. That’s left Louisville out of the spotlight — exactly where Jeff Brohm-coached teams operate best. Louisville will have a chance to prove itself against both the Tigers and Hurricanes this season, though the Cardinals cannot overlook James Madison.