Unless you placed a futures wager on Alabama winning the national championship this season, you’re likely feeling pretty good after a jam-packed opening weekend of results across college football.
The Week 2 slate pales in comparison to the litany of quality games featuring elite teams with No. 15 Michigan vs. No. 18 Oklahoma being the only matchup pitting nationally-ranked competition. However, there’s value to be found elsewhere, including several contests inside our top 10 picks with spreads at 3 points or less.
Last week’s results: Brad Crawford (7-3 straight; 7-3 ATS); Chris Hummer (8-2, 6-4). We both made you money in Week 1 and capped the holiday weekend with three straight covers — South Carolina -7.5, Miami +2.5 and TCU -3.5. Man, what a throttling in Chapel Hill. I even cashed a three-team parlay if you tailed the pick handed out on our new weekly show on Fridays via CBS Sports Network.
Season totals: Crawford (7-3 straight; 7-3 ATS); Hummer (8-2, 6-4).
For clarity, these lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook on Sept. 2.
Hummer (Illinois -2.5): You can’t take a lot away from an opener against a FCS team. But I do know two things about Duke: 1. They’re going to pass the ball — a lot. 2. You can probably run on Duke a little bit after Elon piled up 163 yards. Given those two things, I don’t love how the Blue Devils matchup. The Illini return five starters from what was an above average secondary last year. They also return five O-line starters from an effective rushing unit last year. Playing on the road is hard. But I think Illinois really good. They go to Durham and make a nonconference statement. … Illinois 31, Duke 28
Crawford (Illinois -2.5): Former Tulane quarterback Darian Mensah enjoyed quite the debut for the Blue Devils against Elon and his team needed all of that production considering the matchup was unexpectedly competitive in the second half before the floodgates opened. Illinois presents a vastly different task at the line of scrimmage and will go to Durham and leave with an ugly, albeit acceptable, win to avoid the upset. … Illinois 24, Duke 20
Hummer (Ole Miss – 10.5): I’ll take Ole Miss in this one. The Rebels are going to be very good. They have an excellent D-line that’s capable of slowing down Kentucky’s run game. And if that’s the case … Zach Calzada didn’t give me a lot to believe in last week in his Wildcats debut with a 10-for-23, 85-yard performance. Plus, Ole Miss is going to be very motivated coming into this game. After all, it’s a loss to Kentucky last year that kept the Rebels out of the playoff. … Ole Miss 35, Kentucky 20
Crawford (Kentucky +10.5): Lane Kiffin will do everything in his power to hang a crooked number on the Wildcats after last season’s embarrassing home loss to Mark Stoops, but the last four games in this series have each been decided by three points or less. Kentucky has figured out Ole Miss, at least to an extent of keeping it competitive with a team that’s often more talented within the two-deep. The Rebels get their revenge in the form of a win, but fail to cover at Kroger Field. … Ole Miss 27, Kentucky 17
Hummer (SMU -2.5): This game feels like a total tossup to me. But if I’m going to pick an area to declare a major advantage, it’s Kevin Jennings against the Baylor defense. The Bears struggled against Jackson Arnold last week. Not as a passer but as a runner. Arnold ran for 137 yards and two touchdowns on 8.6 yards per carry. SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings is capable of that sort of rushing output, too. But he’s also a more established passer against what is a Baylor secondary with some stuff to prove. I hesitate with SMU a bit given the injury status of Jordan Hudson, but I’ll take the Mustangs at home. … SMU 34, Baylor 31
Crawford (Baylor +2.5): I saw enough from the Bears offensively against Auburn in Week 1 to warrant a moneyline play here on Dave Aranda’s team. I think it’s an ideal bounce-back opportunity against an in-state rival that might be a bit overvalued because of last season’s success. In terms of overall talent, the Mustangs do not have Auburn’s roster and that should help the road team. Rhett Lashlee has back-to-back 11-win seasons in Dallas, but that’ll end in 2025. … Baylor 31, SMU 27
Hummer (Iowa State -2.5): Kirk Ferentz got the better of Matt Campbell in this rivalry for years, winning the first five times Campbell participated in Cy-Hawk. That’s changed recently. The Cyclones have won two of three, and I think they’re positioned to win back-to-back games in this series for the first time since 2011 and 2012. What holds me back with Iowa is what always does — the passing attack. I thought they’d make a leap with star transfer Mark Gronowski under center, but he went 8 of 15 for 44 yards in his debut against Albany. I don’t know if Iowa can take advantage of what’s been a shaky Cyclone secondary thus far. I do like the Hawkeyes in the trenches. But given the road environment and the inconsistent offensive play of Iowa, I’m picking Iowa State. … Iowa State 20, Iowa 17
Crawford (Iowa State -2.5): Take the under! In all seriousness, both defenses should play well in Ames. The defensive coordinators at both schools always seem to put their players in best position to succeed when this one’s played annually. The winner of this matchup five of the last six years has scored 20 points or fewer, which makes red zone conversions and cashing in on turnovers paramount to the side you’re playing. Iowa State was one of my preseason picks to reach the Big 12 title game and nothing they’ve shown thus far has changed my projection. … Iowa State 20, Iowa 17
Hummer (Kansas +6.5): I’d argue both teams were slept on this offseason. The Tigers have an excellent defensive line, a soft schedule and a QB who makes things happen with his legs. Kansas has a healthy Jalon Daniels, and the Jayhawks are always a problem when that’s the case. I’m going to pick Missouri to win this once fierce rivalry game. I trust the Tigers more in the trenches. But Kansas isn’t going to make it easy. That offense is humming right now, and they’re moving people up front. Give me the Tigers but Kansas does cover. … Missouri 34, Kansas 28
Crawford (Missouri -6.5): A spot inside the national rankings could be up for grabs for the winner in this one and deservedly so based on what we’ve seen on the field up to this point. Missouri quarterback Beau Pribula was unstoppable on the ground in his debut and with Sam Horn’s injury, is the guy moving forward for the Tigers. Jalon Daniels has already thrown seven touchdown passes in two starts and the Kansas defense has improved. Last team with the football wins? Perhaps. … Missouri 24, Kansas 17
Hummer (Oregon -28.5): This is going to be difficult for Oklahoma State. Had Hauss Hejny been healthy, his running ability would have made things interesting. As it is … Zane Flores is going to be making his first career start in Eugene against one of the elite defenses of the sport. I can’t see an upset happening. It’s just a matter of how close can Oklahoma State keep it on the scoreboard. I think OSU’s defense is good enough to hold up. That unit is a strength. But can the Cowboys offense stay on the field long enough? I was not encouraged by their run game against UT Martin. Oklahoma State keeps it close for a bit, but the Cowboys defense wears out after a quarter or two of constantly being on the field. … Oregon 48, Oklahoma State 17
Crawford (Oklahoma State +28.5): It’s not this bad for Mike Gundy, is it? I refuse to believe the Cowboys will simply lay down and wilt at Autzen Stadium this weekend. I’ll take four touchdowns regardless of the quarterback situation at Oklahoma State against a new-look Oregon offense that was not tested by Power Four-caliber talent in Week 1. … Oregon 42, Oklahoma State 24
Hummer (Florida -17.5): It’ll be interesting to see how USF responds after a huge win for the program last week over Boise State. I wonder how well USF’s O-line holds up in this game. Byrum Brown created a lot with his legs against the Broncos, but that O-line did struggle to create a huge push and allowed a fair bit of pressure. That’s going to be an issue against Florida, which will have an elite run defense this season. I also wonder how South Florida’s secondary, which gave up a lot of yards last week, holds up. Brown is going to make his share of plays. But the Gators make a Week 2 statement. … Florida 38, USF 20
Crawford (Florida -17.5): If we used confidence ratings this week, a Gators cover would be toward the bottom of my list. Last week’s win was a glorified scrimmage for Billy Napier’s team while USF whooped Boise State. Byrum Brown will not have as much time to throw or room to navigate on the ground this weekend, but there’s a good chance the Bulls keep it respectable. Crossing the 17 number on this line is worrisome, but I’ll take Florida with a late cover. … Florida 38, USF 17
Hummer (Mississippi State +6.5): This is going to be a tough environment for Arizona State. It’s loud out there when the cowbells are ringing in Starkville. On paper this is an easy Sun Devils pick. But I do think the Bulldogs are considerably undervalued entering this year. That passing offense with Blake Shapen is going to move the ball, and Mississippi State’s defense did a nice job in Week 1. The question to me is can Mississippi State do a decent enough job slowing down the Sun Devils run game? I think so after an offseason of upgrades to that front seven. Arizona State wins but it’s going to uncomfortable. … Arizona State 37, Mississippi State 31
Crawford (Mississippi State +6.5): My biggest early-season upset pick from earlier this summer, I’ll stick with it here in Week 2. The Bulldogs covered a double-digit spread with a late goal line stop in the fourth quarter against Southern Miss on the road last week and Starkville will be boisterous for nationally-ranked Arizona State coming to town. This is the Sun Devils’ first test since winning the Big 12 last season in a true road environment. Take the points for sure, but I’m sprinkling some on the moneyline, too. … Mississippi State 29, Arizona State 27
Hummer (UCLA – 2.5): I’ve got some good news and bad news for UCLA. The good news: You don’t have to face Utah’s defense again this week. That group had 22 pressures a week ago and made Nico Iamaleava uncomfortable on every snap. The bad news: The same Bruins defense that couldn’t do anything to stop Utah a week ago is going up against a very dangerous offense. Still, I’m not going to abandon my preseason prediction that UCLA will be better in 2025. Give me the Bruins to pick up a nice road win. … UCLA 27, UNLV 21
Crawford (UCLA -2.5): Did the Bruins forget how to block? UCLA’s opener at the line of scrimmage featured an embarrassing effort in protecting Nico Iamaleava, the leader of an offense that never got going during a blowout loss to Utah. UNLV has suffered from several blown assignments and missed tackles in its first two outings under Dan Mullen, but has lived to see another day with consecutive wins. You’ve got to assume UCLA has more depth here and wins this one in the fourth quarter, right? Deshaun Foster bounces back after an ugly opener. … UCLA 30, UNLV 24
No. 15 Michigan at No. 18 Oklahoma -6.5
Hummer (Michigan +6.5): This is a bigger line than I would have expected heading into this game. I think both teams have legitimate questions, but there is a lot of talent on the field, too. The key to this game is how Bryce Underwood deals with the pressure Oklahoma is going to bring defensively. Brent Venables is calling defensive plays this year for OU, and nobody heats up quarterbacks quite like he does as a play caller. Michigan is going to have to lean on the run and hope its secondary is up to the task of slowing down John Mateer and an offense that’s going to chuck the ball. I like Oklahoma to win, but there’s a lot of value ATS with the Wolverines. That’s a lot of points between two evenly matched teams. …. Oklahoma 24, Michigan 20
Crawford (Oklahoma -6.5): This is a tough ask for the Wolverines with a true freshman quarterback going into a hornet’s nest against defensive-minded Brent Venables. Schematically, he’s going to confuse and frustrate Bryce Underwood as early and as often impossible to try and get in the head of the nation’s top recruit in the 2025 class. Michigan’s game plan should be simple: Blow the Sooners off the football and keep the football away from John Mateer and that offense. Easier said than done, however. … Oklahoma 27, Michigan 20
Read the full article here