Week 2 was our annual reminder that there are no such things as quiet weeks in the college football season. A slate described by most as sleepy proved to be anything but some wild games throughout Saturday, highlighted by a shocking upset in Gainesville.
Week 3 of the season brings a return to big-time ranked battles and high-profile matchups, which my colleagues explored here, but as we did last week we’ll be using this space to highlight some of the under the radar games worth keeping tabs on throughout Saturday.
Last week’s picks certainly could’ve gone better as we ended up on the wrong side of a heinous beat with UConn alongside some outright bad picks. We’ll get back in the saddle this week with 10 more picks of games that might not be at the top of the menu, but still offer some value and intrigue. From interesting nonconference showdowns to big teams trying to avoid letdowns, let’s run through our 10 favorite under the radar plays from Week 3.
- Last week: 3-7
- Season total: 6-11
The Ducks spun Mike Gundy’s frustration with Oklahoma State’s lack of NIL funding into a rallying cry last week and showed just what all that money can buy in a beatdown of the Pokes. Now they fly to Evanston for a sleepy noon kick against lowly Northwestern in their makeshift stadium on the lake. Surely the Ducks will have a little letdown in this spot, right? Not so fast, my friend. I really don’t think the Ducks have it in them to sleepwalk through a first half, and I expect them to send Dante Moore out there to pile up more stats early on to continue his ascent in the Heisman race and put this game to bed by halftime. Pick: Oregon 1H -15.5
Oregon State’s defense has made Cal and Fresno State’s offenses look like juggernauts in the first two weeks of the season. Now they face a team that’s hung 60-plus on back-to-back opponents. The Red Raiders should be able to pile up points in this one, and I would be mildly surprised if Texas Tech isn’t sniffing around the 50-point number again. I don’t have a good feel for whether the Beavers’ offense can do anything or not here, so I’m just going to ride with the Red Raiders team total because Oregon State might be one of the worst defensive teams in the country. Pick: Texas Tech team total over 42.5
While the nation’s eyes will be on the ranked showdown between No. 5 Miami and No. 18 South Florida, the rivalry game going on down the road at Pitbull Stadium has my attention. FIU has looked good in its first two games and Willie Simmons seems to have the boys ready to play. There has been plenty of talk around Drew Allar and Penn State’s offense struggling to move it last week, and I think the Panthers had a decent bit to do with that. FAU just smoked Simmons’ old team, FAMU, but they weren’t great in their opener against Maryland. I’ll take the Panthers to pick up a big rivalry win at home here and do so by more than a field goal. Pick: FIU -2.5
If football games were only 30 minutes, Virginia Tech would be a pretty good team. Unfortunately, they are 60-minute affairs and the Hokies have been miserable in the second halves this season. After a tough loss in the opener to South Carolina they came home and blew a double-digit lead to Vanderbilt, completely letting go of the rope late and letting the Commodores run it up. I’ve officially got the Hokies on quit watch and that is not a good place to be with a plucky ODU squad coming in very hungry to get a win over an in-state power conference foe. ODU gave Indiana all they could handle in Week 1 and I think the Monarchs will be a live dog on Saturday in Lane Stadium. Pick: ODU +6.5
Ohio State steamrolled Grambling State last week and remain the No. 1 team in the country. This week they welcome the Bobcats, fresh off a win over West Virginia at home, and the expectation is for the Buckeyes to do the same. Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith got on the same page last week and lit it up, and no one wants to stand in front of that train right now.
Except for me.
I believe in Parker Navarro and the Bobcats. Not to win or anything, but to make this more competitive than people expect. I have no illusions that Ohio isn’t at a massive talent deficit, but I do think they have more self-belief right now than most teams that come into Ohio Stadium in this situation. I also think Ohio State did what they wanted last week in terms of showing the offense isn’t going to be a problem, and if they do go up big early, they’ll pedal off in the second half with the Big Ten schedule looming. Pick: Ohio +31.5
The Chanticleers are just not a good football team right now. After getting smoked by Virginia in the opener they could only put up 13 points on Charleston Southern last week in a win. I’m a little worried about the teal roosters down there in Myrtle Beach and think this is a spot for ECU to make a little statement. The Pirates were very game in their opener at NC State and then dominated the Campbell Camels last week. I do not think this line has caught up to how down Coastal is right now, and I’ll ride with the Pirates on the road. Pick: ECU -7.5
UMass might be the worst FBS football team in the country. They gave up 42 to Temple in the opener and just lost to Bryant — which is not a very good FCS program — in Week 2. Now they have to go to Iowa City to play a Hawkeyes defense that looks, once again, to be very good. I’m not seeing how UMass scores points here and, fun fact, Iowa hasn’t scored more than 42 in five years. If you want to really ride the lightning, you could take UMass team total under 2.5 or lay it with Iowa at -35.5 and see if it’s physically possible for them to score more than five touchdowns against even a terrible opponent. However, I think the more prudent play is just to take the full game under and wait on a 35-0 Iowa win that takes 2 hours and 43 minutes. Pick: Under 42.5
Darian Mensah makes his return to New Orleans and his Duke Blue Devils are the underdogs here. I understand why that’s the case, as Duke just lost by 26 to Illinois and Tulane is 2-0 including a 20-point win at home over Northwestern. However, I think Duke was better than the scoreline suggests against Illinois and Tulane’s win over Northwestern was inflated by a Nathan Peterman-esque four interception performance from Preston Stone. That defense struggled to stop South Alabama last week, and while you could argue they were looking ahead, I think there are some leaks Mensah and the Blue Devils can take advantage of. Now, Duke is going to have to tighten up their operation, especially in the red zone, as they squandered a number of scoring chances against Illinois before the Illini pulled away, but I like the Blue Devils to get the win here. Pick: Duke +1.5
Watching Stanford’s offense last week against BYU was physically painful. To the Cardinal’s credit, they battled defensively, but they just cannot move the football. Boston College’s defense wasn’t exactly stout against Michigan State in a brutal double overtime loss, but I think they are going to look vastly improved this week just because of who they are playing. I will be fading Stanford until proven wrong, so give me the Eagles laying less than two touchdowns. Pick: Boston College -12.5
I think the Golden Gophers are a good football team with a legitimately great defense. Cal got a ton of hype off that win over Oregon State, but after watching the Beavers last week against Fresno State, I think a decent portion of that success is because of the opponent they faced.
I do like the talent of QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, but this game is going to be a freshman facing a really good defense for the first time and I think it’ll be a learning experience for the young man. I don’t expect Minnesota to just run away with it, because I don’t think their offense is quite explosive enough to do that (without a lot of help from turnovers), but I do think they win this game on the road thanks to their defense. Pick: Minnesota -1.5
SportsLine’s proven computer model has simulated every Week 3 college football game 10,000 times. Visit SportsLine now to see all the picks, all from the model that is 31-19 since the beginning of last season on top-rated money-line and over/under picks.
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