Coming off a college football weekend featuring losses by three teams in the AP poll’s top 5, things should settle down a bit in Week 6. Keyword there? Should. Changes across the board within our latest College Football Playoff projection signals conference title races within the Big Ten and SEC leading off what to watch moving forward this fall.
There’s not many matchups this weekend pitting nationally ranked teams, but we found 10 games worthy of mention where prediction value is there for the taking.
Last week’s results: Brad Crawford (7-3 straight, 6-4 ATS); Chris Hummer (4-6, 2-8 ATS). After losing the first two picks of the weekend with Virginia and Arizona State upsets, my wagers settled down for a winning mark at 6-4 overall. Notre Dame hammering Arkansas, Auburn keeping it within the number in College Station and Oregon’s outright victory at Penn State helped.
Season totals: Crawford (36-14 straight, 30-20 ATS); Hummer (36-14; 20-30).
For clarity, these lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook on Sept. 28. New users at FanDuel Sportsbook get $300 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager.
Hummer (Clemson -13.5): These are two of the most disappointing teams in the FBS for different reasons. North Carolina just isn’t living up to the Bill Belichick hype at 2-2 and having been outscored 82-23 against Power Four competition. Clemson, for its part, went from preseason national title contender to a disastrous 1-3. Still, Clemson isn’t a bad team. North Carolina might be. The Tigers win the lines of scrimmage and finally look more like themselves coming out of a bye week. — Clemson 38, North Carolina 20.
Crawford (Clemson -13.5): Is Clemson capable of covering any spread the remainder of the season as a favorite? I have questions. Which one of these teams will be be better prepared coming off a bye week? And for the Tigers, how much do they still care with end-of-season goals essentially over? These are all factors to consider when making this play. There’s the obvious talent discrepancy as well, but that hasn’t helped Dabo Swinney’s much through four games. — Clemson 27, North Carolina 10.
Hummer (Notre Dame -17.5): This line is climbing the wrong direction for Boise State midway through this week. But it should be noted that Brad and I pick the lines as of Sunday. Thus, the value is with Notre Dame. Boise State is good. The Broncos are strong defensively, particularly in the secondary, and they’re going to be a tough test. But Notre Dame’s scored on everyone this year, and I’m hesitant to bet on a Boise State offense that’s a middling 61st in offensive success rate. If there’s an area of vulnerability for Notre Dame it’s in the secondary, but Maddux Madsen has just been OK (69th in QBR) and I haven’t seen enough from the Broncos to think they’ll light it up through the air. Give me the Irish to cover. — Notre Dame 35, Boise State 17.
Crawford (Boise State +17.5): The Irish might be overvalued a bit here after just hanging 50-plus at Arkansas, but they’re certainly a team that looks to be hitting their stride since opening with losses to Miami and Texas A&M. And while improved, there are still areas of weakness to sort out defensively at Notre Dame before mentioning “playoff” and “Irish” in the same sentence moving forward. I’ll take the underdogs to cover here. — Notre Dame 38, Boise State 23.
Hummer (Michigan State +11.5): This could be a big day for Dylan Raiola and the Huskers passing attack, because the Spartans have been horrendous this year defending the pass at 116th in success rate and 117th nationally in passing yards allowed per game. The question becomes can Michigan State’s offense score enough against what is an excellent Nebraska secondary to keep up? I think Michigan State does enough coming out of a bye to keep this close. — Nebraska 34, Michigan State 24.
Crawford (Michigan State +11.5): Any believers in Nebraska yet? The home loss to Michigan was a missed opportunity for Matt Rhule, who still hasn’t beaten a nationally-ranked opponent with Huskers. The Spartans aren’t ranked, but they did cover at USC this month and have an offense capable of keeping it within the number. If Nebraska leaves the back door open, Aidan Chiles will deliver with a touchdown pass to cash. — Nebraska 31, Michigan State 24.
Hummer (Cincinnati -1.5): The Bearcats are much better this year, but I’m still a little surprised to see them favored over a ranked Iowa State team. But Vegas doesn’t care about records or rankings, and the Bearcats have been playing great. To me this game comes down to one area: How does Cincinnati’s pass defense holds up? I have full confidence the Bearcats can score. That unit’s been awesome at third nationally in yards per play. But the Cincinnati secondary has been a disaster at 132nd nationally in defensive success rate against the pass. Can Rocco Becht take advantage? I’m not sure. High-scoring, high-volume games aren’t how Iowa State usually wins. Give me the Bearcats. — Cincinnati 27, Iowa State 24.
Crawford (Cincinnati -1.5): If you’re keeping tabs on games featuring an unranked team being favored at home against a ranked opponent, it hits more often than not. We saw it happen last week when then-unbeaten TCU was an underdog at Arizona State. Another scenario could be unfolding here in the unpredictable Big 12. Iowa State’s unbeaten, but this will be its first road game against a conference opponent this fall. — Cincinnati 23, Iowa State 20.
Hummer (Mississippi State +13.5): Unlike Auburn over the weekend, Mississippi State is capable enough on offense to stress a Texas A&M defense that’s had some shaky moments early this year. It also helps that quietly the Bulldogs’ defense has been excellent at 32nd nationally in yards allowed per play. Blake Shapen needs to recapture some of his early-season form, but I think this sets up well for a Mississippi State cover. I wouldn’t even rule out an upset if the Bulldogs can force a few turnovers. — Texas A&M 34, Mississippi State 21.
Crawford (Mississippi State +13.5): Mississippi State is 5-0 ATS this season and could’ve beaten Tennessee outright last week as a 7.5-point underdog at home before the Vols forced overtime. Texas A&M failed to cover at home against Auburn and needed its top defensive performance of the season to down the Tigers. The Aggies should stay unbeaten, but take the points here. And if you can get 14 points or more by kickoff, even better. — Texas A&M 34, Mississippi State 24.
Hummer (Texas -7.5): This is a tough game for Florida. Unless we see a very different offensive product from DJ Lagway and the Gators passing attack, Florida will really struggle against one of the elite defenses in college football. And while the Gators defense has held up admirably for much of the year, the injuries are starting to pile up for that unit, especially along the defensive line. Maybe Florida comes out of the bye week and looks totally different. It’s possible. But based on what we’ve seen so far, I’ll take Texas to cover. — Texas 27, Florida 17.
Crawford (Texas -7.5): Statement coming from Arch Manning? His first SEC start of the season is the most important on this Texas schedule. It’s difficult to imagine the Longhorns being a factor in the league title race or playoff conversation if they fall to a team amid a significant decline. Billy Napier’s offense has no rhythm and going up against a defense littered with stars, that’s a bad omen. — Texas 24, Florida 10.
Hummer (Texas Tech -10.5): I enter this game wondering if Houston can score enough to keep up with Texas Tech. The Cougars are better on that side of the ball but still rank just 86th nationally in yards per play and 116th in offensive success rate. That could be a problem against what’s been an elite Texas Tech defense and an offensive unit capable of putting up points in bunches. Houston’s defense keeps this game close for a while, but Texas Tech is going to be tough to beat coming out of a bye week. — Texas Tech 28, Houston 17.
Crawford (Houston +10.5): We’re keeping the Red Raiders as the projected Big 12 champion this week, but Joey McGuire’s team is marked and is no more upset proof than many other remaining unbeatens. Unlike most Texas Tech wins, this one could take more of the methodical approach against an opponent whose front seven defensively may struggle getting push. But if you’re giving me 10.5 points with an unranked team at home coached by Willie Fritz, I’m taking it. — Texas Tech 31, Houston 23.
Wisconsin at No. 20 Michigan
Hummer (Wisconsin +16.5): Does Wisconsin look any better coming out of the bye week? That’s the big question entering this one. It helps the Badgers’ case that Billy Edwards is back under center as QB1. But the Badgers still must figure out a way to consistently run the football. Michigan, outside of big runs by Justice Haynes, isn’t usually particularly explosive offensively, so that works in Wisconsin’s favor in terms of keeping this close. Michigan is better, but the Badgers manage to cover in an important game for Luke Fickell. — Michigan 31, Wisconsin 20.
Crawford (Michigan -16.5): It’s show me time for Fickell and the Badgers. Too often Wisconsin has come out flat under this current regime in big games, so here’s a chance at reversing those fortunes in Ann Arbor. The best play here would be taking the under, but if you must pick a side, Michigan with a late cover in a potentially ugly game feels like the right spot to put your money. — Michigan 30, Wisconsin 13.
Hummer (Vanderbilt +13.5): Vanderbilt is a product with which I know exactly what to expect. The Commodores are going to control the clock, efficiently move the football and avoid defensive mistakes that lead to explosive plays. Alabama? The Crimson Tide are more talented, but we’ve seen some very uneven performances from them this year. This game comes down to two areas to me: 1. How does a just OK Vanderbilt offensive line hold up? 2. Can Alabama establish any sort of run game and avoid making Ty Simpson carry the offense? I do think Alabama gets revenge at home. But Vanderbilt is going to make it difficult. — Alabama 34, Vanderbilt 27.
Crawford (Vanderbilt +13.5): Vanderbilt’s not going to beat Alabama for a second straight year, but this line feels disrespectful to the Commodores. Knowing what Diego Pavia was able to do against this defense last season should worry Alabama fans, especially since he’s red-hot again through five games. Vanderbilt’s been beating the opposition by more than four touchdowns per game this fall, but that changes this weekend. — Alabama 38, Vanderbilt 27.
Hummer (Miami -5.5): This is going to be a fun test for Miami’s revamped defense. It takes so much discipline to play Florida State’s offense led by Gus Malzahn and Tommy Castellanos, and the Hurricanes have historically (and at times this year) had issues with busts and tackling. At the same time, I’m not particularly optimistic about Florida State’s defense generating much pressure against what is the best O-line in college football. Both these teams are good. But Miami has the better roster and has the advantage of coming off a bye. Give me the Hurricanes. — Miami 35, Florida State 28.
Crawford (Miami -5.5): I was admittedly surprised Virginia had as much success offensively as it did against the Seminoles, which resulted in an inexcusable road loss for Mike Norvell despite a sizable talent advantage. Here, it is Miami’s turn to flex its roster after an open date. Can Florida State block this Hurricanes’ front? That’s where the game will be won. Pressuring Castellanos is key for the unbeaten Hurricanes. — Miami 27, Florida State 20.
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