Week 5 of the college football season features some incredible conference matchups with College Football Playoff implications.
In the SEC, No. 4 LSU visits No. 13 Ole Miss while No. 17 Alabama travels to No. 5 Georgia. In the Big Ten, Washington hosts No. 1 Ohio State, while No. 6 Oregon makes the trip to Happy Valley to face No. 3 Penn State. Those four games would have an argument for the best game of most any week of the season, and all happen to take place on the same Saturday.
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Those matchups will rightfully take up much of the oxygen this week, but here we are always looking beyond the headliners. I like to find some value on those games you toss in to complete a quadbox or throw on a second (or third) screen, because college football Saturdays are about taking in as much football as possible.
Last week I finally broke through with a big winning Saturday, going 9-2 (because I accidentally handed out an extra winner) to break into the black. Let’s try and keep that rolling in Week 5 with 10 more plays.
- Last week: 9-2
- Season record: 21-17
This has all the makings of a very entertaining ACC noon kickoff. Pitt has had a full week to stew over a dreadful loss in the Backyard Brawl, while Louisville has been solid yet unspectacular against a fairly weak nonconference slate. Both of these offenses can go and both of these defenses can be leaky. I’m not sure either team is capable of stopping the other on a consistent basis and I expect them to pile up points. Pick: Over 57.5
Bowling Green has been solidly competitive this year, including an upset win over a bad Liberty team (more on them in a bit), but I think Ohio is going to show why they’re in the top class of the MAC. The Bobcats came out sluggish and fell behind to Gardner-Webb last week, but that was after hanging tough with Ohio State on the road and I think they had some body blow fatigue in the first half. Parker Navarro and this Bobcats offense can get after it, and I don’t think the Falcons can keep up with them for four quarters. Pick: Ohio -8.5
I stared at this line for a good five minutes trying to figure out how anyone could trust Kansas State as a 6.5-point favorite, but I also cannot take this UCF team in their first road game of the season as less than a touchdown dog. That said, I feel fairly confident that both of these teams are better defensively than they are offensively. That points me to the under, especially as long as it’s above that key number of 49. Pick: Under 49.5
We’re going to put the Rutgers over principle to the ultimate test this week, as the Minnesota offense hasn’t scored more than 23 against an FBS opponent. That said, the Gophers had a week to recover from a bad loss at Cal and should be fresh, and Rutgers does nothing but play in shootouts. The Scarlet Knights have yet to play in a game that finished with fewer than 52 points this season — including a 38-28 loss to Iowa last week. Even the Gophers should be able to score on this defense, and on the other side Athan Kaliakmanis and the Rutgers’ offense have looked good so far this season. Pick: Over 51.5
Vanderbilt is destroying teams to start the 2025 season, most recently hanging 70 points on a hapless Georgia State team last week. So, why would you want to take anyone against Vandy on the road right now? Well, for one, Utah State is a solid football team. Bronco’s Big Bad Boys will fight for 60 minutes and hung around in College Station to cover against Texas A&M earlier this season. On top of that, Vandy had plenty of motivation to destroy the Panthers last week as they lost to Georgia State last season in Atlanta. This week, I think Vandy will simply be looking to get out of this one with a win and to be as healthy as possible with a trip to Tuscaloosa looming next Saturday. Don’t be surprised if they’re covering at some point, but we’re going to trust the Aggies to find the backdoor if needed once the ‘Dores pull the starters. Pick: Utah State +22.5
West Virginia’s offense has not looked particularly good this season against FBS competition — even the Backyard Brawl win was weird — and now goes up against a stout Utah defense. The Utes’ offense, meanwhile, has struggled with throwing the ball downfield and Devon Dampier just hasn’t seemed right the last couple weeks. I’m not interested in trusting either of these teams to cover, but I do expect it to be fairly low scoring with two teams that like to run the ball. Pick: Under 47.5
Liberty spent the past five years as one of the big dogs of the Group of Five (now six), but they have fallen off in a major way this season. Like we saw a year ago with Florida State, all those teams they once beat up on are going to enjoy getting their payback in a down year. Liberty won’t get any mercy from ODU this week, as the Monarchs had a week off to enjoy their win over Virginia Tech and shift their focus fully to the Flames. Give me the Monarchs, big. Pick: Old Dominion -15.5
Virginia Tech at NC State
It’s pretty simple. I see an NC State game, I take the over. The Wolfpack can score in bunches and their defense is also happy to facilitate a shootout by being a welcoming host. Virginia Tech, meanwhile, hasn’t tackled anyone in the last six quarters (at least, it feels that way), and I expect this game to feature a lot of points. Pick: Over 57.5
I don’t trust Arizona’s offense to go on the road at night in Ames and perform very well. At the same time, I don’t believe a lot in this Cyclones offense to put up a huge game themselves. If you combine those two feelings it will lead you straight to the under, which is still in the high 40s despite Iowa State having yet to play in a game against an FBS opponent that’s gone over 45 points. Pick: Under 48.5
I’m going back to the first-half well with a big favorite after going 2-1 last week. Mizzou has destroyed lesser competition this season and UMass comes into town banged up and in a really bad place. They gave up 30 first-half points to Iowa two weeks ago, and I think Mizzou hangs a big number on them early before shutting it down after halftime. Pick: Missouri 1H -25.5
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