Week 4 of the college football season is here, and we’re starting to get a clearer sense of who teams really are.
It’s the final week with a heavy nonconference slate before league play ramps up, though a few marquee league games headline the weekend. Those matchups are covered elsewhere by my colleagues. Here, as always, the focus is on digging a little deeper — 10 picks from games that won’t be at the top of everyone’s watchlist.
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This week’s card leans on totals and first-half spreads, mixing in plays from intriguing under-the-radar matchups, a few spots where top teams face overmatched opponents and, yes, even an angle on what might be the ugliest game of the week.
First, a quick look at the season record, which inched closer to .500 after a bounce-back showing last week.
- Last week: 6-4
- Season record: 12-15
The line on this game is fascinating: Maryland is 3-0 but enters as a 10.5-point underdog on the road against a Wisconsin team that’s struggled to score. Still, I’m skeptical of the Terps’ ability to generate points against a real defense, so rather than dabble with the spread, I’ll take the under. This feels like a throwback Big Ten noon kick (think punts, runs, field position battles) with both teams desperate to notch a win against a lower-tier conference opponent. Pick: Under 44.5
Clemson as a 17.5-point favorite against anyone is eyebrow-raising, but like with Wisconsin, I’m more intrigued by the total. Syracuse has struggled offensively against FBS opponents, and while Clemson has looked shaky overall, the defense remains stout. The Tigers’ offense, meanwhile, has trouble generating explosive plays — the very thing that gave Syracuse issues against Tennessee. This sets up as another frustratingly low-scoring afternoon for Clemson. Pick: Under 55.5
Body clocks are in play here for the Rebels as they go to Oxford, Ohio for a sleepy noon kick as a short favorite against a good MAC team. I think the Redhawks can score some points on a UNLV defense that isn’t exactly dominant, and over the course of four quarters, I expect Dan Mullen’s bunch to get it going themselves. My pick here is the over in a game that could be one of the best of the early window. Pick: Over 50.5
UAB at Tennessee
The next three picks fall under what I’ll call Bum Slayer Saturday with Tennessee, Oregon and Florida State.
Tennessee has shown no mercy early in games, piling up first-half points on everyone — including Georgia. Coming off a gutting overtime loss, I expect the Vols to get right back on track against a porous UAB defense. Look for a fast start, plenty of points before halftime and then a lighter second half once the game is in hand. Pick: Tennessee 1H -22.5
Oregon started slow against Northwestern but still managed to cover the first half before blowing the full-game line in brutal fashion. Back home this week for the Civil War, the Ducks face an Oregon State defense that’s been lit up by every opponent so far. I like Dante Moore and the Ducks to strike early and cover a three-touchdown first-half spread before shifting focus to Penn State next week. Pick: Oregon 1H -20.5
Florida State was up 49-0 at the half last week on Texas A&M-Commerce. Kent State was down 48-0 at the half last week to Texas Tech. I do not think this is going to go well in the first half for the Golden Flashes and I’ll take FSU to be up by four touchdowns or more at the half before shutting it down with a short week ahead. Pick: FSU 1H -26.5
Bill Belichick vs. Scott Frost is the real main event of Week 4. Two coaches desperate to get on track at UNC and UCF respectively will face off in the Bounce House on Saturday afternoon. When they’ve faced real FBS competition this season, neither of these offenses have been able to do much of anything, and I expect a fairly sloppy offensive showing from both on Saturday. Give me the under in a real rubbernecking spot for college football fans. Pick: Under 47.5
These are two truly dreadful football teams. The Ragin’ Cajuns have fallen on hard times and have been brutal offensively this year, but it’s possible that any random assortment of 11 people could find a way to score three touchdowns against this Eastern Michigan team. The Factory is close to being condemned for unsafe working conditions, as the Eagles have given up an average of 50 points per game against their two FBS opponents (Kentucky and Texas State) and lost 28-23 to a Long Island team that gained under 100 yards against Florida. I cannot stress enough how bad the EMU defense is, and I think even this version of Louisiana can hit the mid-30s with ease. To the Eagles’ credit, they’ve scored 23 or more in all three of their games, so I expect their offense to do their part here in getting us to an over in Ypsilanti. Pick: Over 50.5
Liberty is in a rough spot right now and likely won’t get much mercy from the rest of the Group of 6. The Dukes hung tough with a strong Louisville team last Thursday and have had a long week to prepare for the Flames, who just lost outright to Bowling Green. I like James Madison to keep piling it on and earn a double-digit win in Lynchburg. Pick: JMU -8.5
BYU’s defense looks extremely nasty again this season and ECU has been pretty solid on that end as well. Shutting out a bad Coastal team isn’t a huge deal, but their opener against NC State was surprisingly low scoring — especially with what we’ve seen from NC State the last two weeks. I’m not sold on the BYU offense just yet, as they had some struggles moving the ball on Stanford, happily opting to pin the Cardinal deep knowing they weren’t going anywhere. I think we’ll get a low-scoring affair in Greenville, with BYU dictating a slower pace. Pick: Under 49.5
Colorado seems to be spinning a big wheel every week to decide what quarterback it will play. Wyoming’s offense has scored 17 points total in two games against FBS competition (which includes Akron). This game screams under and I’m going to listen to the call of the wild here and oblige. Pick: Under 44.5
SportsLine’s proven computer model has simulated every Week 4 college football game 10,000 times. Visit SportsLine now to see all the picks, all from the model that is 32-20 since the beginning of last season on top-rated money-line and over/under picks.
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