Halfway through the 2024 college football season, the best place to be might be third place.
That’s either a wacky observation on the College Football Playoff or an astute assessment. Maybe it’s both since nobody really understands the College Football Playoff under this new 12-team format. All we know for sure is the top five-ranked conference champions get in with the top four of those champs earning a first-round bye.
Beyond that it gets complicated and highly subjective. So subjective that the Big Ten and SEC basically don’t trust the selection committee, which is why they continue to push for automatic qualifiers.
But, for now, it’s just about making the field, and third place may offer the path of least resistance. We know the SEC and Big Ten will have the best access routes. The two conferences combined would have filled, on average, 7.73 spots over the first 10 years of the CFP.
So here, now, is a different take on the latest marquee game of the season — No. 5 Georgia at No. 1 Texas. The Longhorns look like the class of the SEC in their first season as a league member; you probably don’t have to be told that as they are current favorite to win the national championship at +370, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
But what of Georgia, sitting with the third-best college football betting odds to win the title at +500, according to DraftKings? It already has the Alabama loss. Another in Austin on Saturday would be … crippling? Not necessarily.
When considering playoff implications, a loss for the Bulldogs wouldn’t be such a bad thing. A third-place team doesn’t have to expend energy preparing for and playing an extra contest in the conference championship game. A third-place team doesn’t have to risk getting knocked out of the CFP with a championship game loss.
And a third-place team can still host a first-round game. What’s so bad about avoiding wear and tear, resting up and having an extra home game?
This is written mostly with the SEC and Big Ten in mind. That third-place team in those leagues should almost always be guaranteed a playoff spot. In four of the last six years in the Big Ten, No. 3 Penn State had the league’s third-best record. The Nittany Lions have been frustrated because they usually couldn’t measure up to Michigan and Ohio State. Now, thanks to conference realignment, both the Wolverines and Buckeyes aren’t guaranteed to be on the schedule each year.
If Nittany Lions are what they have been in the last six years — average record 9-3 not counting the COVID-19 season in 2020 — they should be in.
Which brings us back to third place and Georgia. Saturday could be another example in this new CFP era of a national power “affording” a loss. A second defeat would be Georgia’s second in the regular season since Kirby Smart’s first year in 2016. (Again, not counting 2020)
The CFP, though, can be the gift that keeps on giving. The loser of the other marquee game in the SEC — No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 11 Tennessee — will be in the same situation (see below). Georgia goes into Saturday night in fourth place in the SEC, and the Dawgs still have No. 18 Ole Miss and Tennessee after Texas. Gosh, third place might be a relief.
Penn State goes into Saturday’s bye tied for first in the Big Ten with Oregon and Ohio State after the stirring win over USC and sits at No. 3 in the AP Top 25.
Yeah, it’s early to raise such CFP minutiae. But we’re also halfway home.
Week 9 storylines
Why Texas will win: The interior of the defensive line is as good as last season despite of loss of T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy, two first-round draft picks. Offensive tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. — a unanimous CBS Sports Midseason All-America selection — has allowed one pressure in 202 pass-blocking snaps. No other team has a quarterback as talented as Arch Manning sitting on the bench.
Texas has won its first six games of the season by at least 19 points for the first time since 1961. It has its best point differential (+221) through six games in the last 100 years. The Longhorns allowed 37 points in the CFP semifinal loss to Washington to end last season but has given up 38 points all season to this point.
Those are Godzilla-rumbles-through-Tokyo numbers.
Why Georgia will win: Still scratching my head. The last time Georgia was worse defensively in a three-game stretch (85 points surrendered through the last three games) was the COVID-19 year in 2020. Before that was in Smart’s first season (2016). All-America guard Tate Ratledge has been upgraded to questionable, while linebacker Smael Mondon as well as running backs Branson Robinson and Roderick Robinson are all out. Carson Beck, this one is on you.
Now, let’s hand out some midseason honors before we dive into more Week 8 storylines …
Midseason Coach of the Year
1. Matt Campbell, Iowa State: Picked sixth in the Big 12 before the season, the No. 9 Cyclones have emerged as one of the conference’s teams to beat in the second half along with No. 13 BYU. Campbell has had to play 11 linebackers due to injuries, and the current starters at those positions all played Class A high school football (smallest division in Iowa).
2. Dan Lanning, Oregon: The No. 2 Ducks’ speed might be the best in the country. The intentional 12-men penalty late against No. 4 Ohio State was brilliant. Oregon’s style, speed and physicality is the new Big Ten standard.
3. Curt Cignetti, Indiana: Why is No. 16 Indiana so good? The Hoosiers’ first-year coach wins. Google him. Cignetti was surgical with his transfer portal flips, landing key players from his old James Madison program who infused a winning culture. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke is the Big Ten’s highest-rated passer.
Heisman frontrunners through midseason
Odds provided via DraftKings Sportsbook
1. Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel (+320): In his sixth season, Gabriel has emerged as a run-pass threat who is making all the right decisions. Go check his rushing touchdown against Ohio State. Gabriel will end up as the No. 2 career passing leader.
2. Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty (+210): The junior is putting up Barry Sanders-like numbers. At only 5-foot-9, there is little doubt the nation’s leading rusher will play in the NFL. At his current pace, he’ll likely need a 13th game — probably the Mountain West Championship Game — to break Sanders’ single-season rushing record.
3. Colorado CB/WR Travis Hunter (+550): The game has never seen the likes of CU’s two-way marvel. Hunter averages more than 120 total plays per game. His 49 catches lead the Big 12. If Hunter is injured for a period of time, Coach Prime would have to fill two key positions.
Halfway through the season, scoring is up 4.5% to 29.02 points per game. That’s an increase of 1.24 points per game per team from 2023.
These categories are on pace for single-season records: completion percentage (62.3); yards per pass (7.57).
Playoff hope math: There are 66 schools — 49% of FBS — with two losses or less.
Halfway through the season, UCLA (1-5, 0-4 heading to Rutgers) is in line to become the first FBS team to finish 18th in a conference. That’s because there has never been an 18-team conference (Big Ten).
Service oriented: There are 11 undefeated teams. Ten of those teams can win out and finish 12-0 in the regular season. The only remaining head-to-head meeting of currently undefeated teams in the second half is No. 23 Army and No. 25 Navy, whose annual meeting is scheduled for Dec. 14, but the two could possibly square off a week prior in the AAC Championship Game.
“I hate to say it, but they’re inspiring,” CFP executive director and former Air Force superintendent Richard Clark said. “It’s hard for the service academies to go out and win that way.”
How hard? CBS Sports asked a former Power Five assistant to size up the Black Knights and Midshipmen. One factor was the Army Prep School being moved from Fort Monmouth, New Jersey, to West Point in 2011. It allowed for an easier transition for the players who were emerging out Army Prep.
“We used to go and look at prep school kids for the ones that weren’t going to make it into the academy. They’re pretty tough kids … [Moving the prep school closer to West Point] has paid benefits. A few years ago when they changed commanders, the commander wanted football to be good. Jeff Monken said, ‘Here’s what we have to do to be good.’ And they did it.’
“At Navy, AD Chet Gladchuk was on Kenny [Nuimatalolo] about throwing the ball more. This isn’t an offense that’s made to come from behind. Chet said, ‘I’m tired of us not having the ability to throw the football unless we’re behind.’ They hired the guy from Mercer [Drew Cronic as offensive coordinator] and that has opened up the whole thing … It’s wing-T principles, but they’re throwing the heck out of the ball.”
Cronic was 28-17 in four seasons as Mercer coach in the tough Southland Conference. His nine wins in 2023 were the most in the 50-year history of the program. His arrival under second-year Navy coach Brian Newberry has helped shape a stat you may never see again. Entering this week, Army and Navy are 1-2 nationally in pass efficiency. Never mind they’re both 1-2 in fewest passes attempted. Both offenses have “opened up” — or at least becoming more efficient — to address those come-from-behind concerns.
Expect the undefeated seasons to continue this week. East Carolina is at Army while Charlotte visits Navy.
Playing into the hands of the Big Ten, SEC: At the halfway point in the ACC’s season, it seems that No. 6 Miami and No. 10 Clemson are destined to meet in the conference championship game. Miami (6-0) could get to that game without playing a ranked team. That would give the SEC and Big Ten more ammunition in their drive to secure automatic qualifying spots starting in 2026. Just don’t tell the ACC.
Miami starts the second half Saturday at Louisville. In Week 8, the Cardinals become the first team the Hurricanes will face with a winning record in FBS play. The second half gets tougher with games against currently unranked Duke (5-1), Georgia Tech (5-2) and Syracuse (5–1). Clemson (hosting Virginia) has its own challenges with Louisville, Pitt and South Carolina still to go.
More on that Big Ten-SEC takeover: We told you about the possible scheduling agreement between the two. What we’ve learned since then:
- It may take years for the schools involved to buy out existing nonconference games to make room for the cross-conference “challenge.”
- Actually, it may take until next decade for the series to start. In that case, the two leagues can merely fold the games into their next media rights deals. As things stand, ESPN (SEC) as well as Fox, CBS and NBC (Big Ten) would have to agree to pay more for games they’ve already purchased.
- A glimpse at the possible future windfall: Texas vs. Michigan was the highest-rated game of Week 2. Alabama vs. Wisconsin was second-highest rated game of Week 2.
Travis Hunter’s injury history: Colorado’s fantastic two-way player was injured again against No. 17 Kansas State, missing the second half with an apparent shoulder injury. Deion Sanders said this week that Hunter is on track to play against Arizona, though. If Hunter can make it through, it would be the first time he had appeared in every game since at least his junior year in high school.
As a high school senior, Hunter missed five games with an ankle injury. As a freshman at Jackson State in 2022, he missed five games with an undisclosed injury. Hunter missed three games last season after that crippling hit from Colorado State’s Henry Blackburn resulted in a lacerated liver.
That’s 13 games in three seasons while building an Ironman reputation. Is Hunter being used too much? CBS Sports spoke to a prominent veteran trainer with extensive college and NFL experience.
“That’s a slippery slope. I do think we have seen modifications of concussions in recent years because we’re mitigating forces in practice. To make a reach and say he’s being overused may be a stretch. Knowing their medical people, they are monitoring their workout output. There’s no doubt that if you play more, you’ve got a [better] chance of injury. You never know if he didn’t practice or had something else happen [last week prior to the K-State game].”
Prior to Saturday’s injury, Hunter had played 44 of the 45 defensive snaps against K-State. He ran 216 routes through CU’s first five games, per ESPN. His 46 catches and five receiving touchdowns continue to lead the Big 12.
Kudos to Nick Saban: It’s obvious Alabama has slipped, and CBS Sports’ Chip Patterson did a fine job of chronicling the reasons for the decline.
But credit also goes to Nick Saban for his candor as an analyst. The hire of any former coach or player on the TV side is always fraught with concern they won’t be objective and critical of their former teams. Saban moved up a notch in my journalism credibility rankings with his comments recently about the Crimson Tide, who have slumped in his absence.
“A lot of teams that have had big wins, they’d have had significant letdowns the next week. If you put a little complacency with a littler arrogance because you had a big win, and you don’t focus on the right things the next week, you really don’t get the results you’d like to have. If you don’t focus on the right stuff, your execution goes to pot in a hurry.”
Kalen DeBoer shouldn’t have to worry about focus Saturday at Tennessee. Speaking of which …
Playing for all the cigars: My ears are still ringing from interviewing Jalin Hyatt two years amid the field storming at Neyland Stadium.
Tennessee and Alabama are both equally stuck in a two-game malaise. This is probably a CFP elimination game considering the number of two-loss teams that could come out of the SEC.
Hey, again, there’s till third place left for the loser.
A special shout out to Oregon’s video team: Just watch this incredibly produced “Ducks versus Them” video following the win over Ohio State. I’m ready to run through a wall.
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