Welcome to the end. At least the end of the regular season. As Thanksgiving approaches, there are more possibilities this Week 14 than there are wishbones at the adult table.
As a public service, Storylines has decided to cut through the dressing and get right to the white meat, listing all the games that matter in the College Football Playoff.
Realignment and the subsequent consolidation of conferences have gifted us the resulting tiebreaker headaches. Amaze your friends at holiday parties by cutting and pasting the following:
- Big 12: Nine teams are still alive. Take a Tylenol and read the conference’s tiebreakers.
- Big Ten: Oregon has clinched a spot. Ohio State can assure a rematch with the Ducks by beating Michigan. If not, it’s a bit of a mess.
- ACC: SMU is in. If Miami beats Syracuse, it’s in. Clemson gets in by beating South Carolina and with a Miami loss.
- SEC: The winner of Texas-Texas A&M plays Georgia.
- Mountain West: Boise State has clinched a spot in the title game, against either UNLV or Colorado State; however, it must win that game, and the Oregon State game on Black Friday, or the MWC could lose its playoff spot.
- American: Tulane will play Army. All that’s left to determine based on this week’s results is which school will host the game.
As promised, here in order of importance are the games that most impact the CFP going into the final weekend of the season.
No. 3 Texas at No. 20 Texas A&M: The biggest game in this rivalry’s history. The winner goes to Atlanta. SEC CFP nightmare: A&M wins out, dealing Georgia its third loss of the season. If Texas, South Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama and Ole Miss also lose this week, are we talking two SEC teams in the playoff?
No. 15 South Carolina at No. 12 Clemson: South Carolina is suddenly a playoff contender if it beats the Tigers. The teams immediately above it are Ole Miss, Alabama and Clemson. Who knows how the Rebels and Tide are going to come out in their respective rivalry games. It’s not hard to imagine the Gamecocks leaping all three to get into the conversation as the SEC’s last playoff team. At No. 12, Clemson positions itself to become a second team from the ACC with a win.
No. 16 Arizona State at Arizona: Weird things happen in the Territorial Cup. Arizona State scored 70 in the 2019 game. Arizona has won the last two meetings, scoring 59 in Tempe last year. The Wildcats have underachieved but have nothing to lose in knocking the Sun Devils back into the Big 12 tiebreaker morass. Arizona State clinches a spot in the conference champ game with a win. If not, see tiebreakers above.
Big 12 nightmare: If the champion has three losses (there are 256 combinations left) are we talking about the conference being left out altogether? In that scenario, Tulane could earn at automatic berth by winning this week.
No. 6 Miami at Syracuse: Kyle McCord became the quarterback he never was at Ohio State for the ‘Cuse. McCord leads the country in passing yards, and win or loss he will surpass 4,000 for the season against the Hurricanes. That gives Clemson hope; an upset by the Orange here helps the Tigers in the ACC championship race. There looks to be room to get two in among SMU, Miami and Clemson.
Michigan at No. 2 Ohio State: This is a formality fraught with emotion. The Buckeyes are favored by three touchdowns and should coast, mostly because they’re sick and tired of the “It Has Been [Insert Number Here] Days Since Ohio State’s Last Win over Michigan” signs. An Ohio State victory ends Michigan’s three-year winning streak and once again “saves” Ryan Day’s job.
For entertainment’s sake, think ahead about a possible threepeat with Oregon. The Ducks won the first meeting by a point. If Ohio State beats Michigan, that sets up a rematch with Oregon in Indianapolis next week. At that point, the game should be for seeding. A third meeting in the playoff is absolutely possible.
Georgia Tech at No. 7 Georgia: I don’t know, man. Asking the ‘Dawgs to beat Tech and the Texas A&M-Texas winner in back-to-back weeks might be too much to ask at this stage. Mostly because Georgia hasn’t shown enough consistency to do it. Georgia Tech has already beaten a top-10 team (Miami). Georgia should beat the Jackets but it might have to win the SEC title to get in the CFP. Same as last year.
Auburn at No. 13 Alabama: An Iron Bowl win keeps Bama alive in disappointing season for what looks like a longshot at a CFP berth. With a loss, it will get uglier in T-Town. The Tide haven’t lost four in a season since Nick Saban’s first year, 2007.
Mississippi State at No. 14 Ole Miss: The Egg Bowl is a toss-up in most years. This game qualifies. Who knows how the Rebels are going to come out emotionally after that stinker against Florida? Mississippi State is down but will Ole Miss take advantage? Same as Alabama, Rebels are a longshot for the playoff.
No. 6 Tennessee at Vanderbilt: The Vols have been warned. So has the NCAA. Diego Pavia can beat anyone. If Vandy’s quarterback wins his lawsuit and gets another year of eligibility, the Commodores are going to be dangerous again. They may be too much for the Vols on Saturday. A third loss puts Tennessee in that ever-growing three-loss SEC dust bin.
Maryland at No. 4 Penn State: The Nittany Lions need to beat Maryland (easy) and get an Ohio State loss (not likely) to advance to the Big Ten title game. If not, Penn State looks like it will be hosting a first-round game. Imagine an SEC team coming to State College during Christmas week. Bring a sweater, Southern Man.
No. 5 Notre Dame at USC: The Irish have quietly become of the most feared teams in the country. The same squad that lost at home to Northern Illinois also leads the country in victory margin. A win in LA probably clinches a first-round home game.
Washington at No. 1 Oregon: Remember the two meetings last year? U-Dub used them to advance to the national championship. This is the kind of game Dan Lanning could rest his stars to get ready for the Big Ten Championship Game. Oregon is that good. Washington has slipped that much.
No. 24 Kansas State at No. 18 Iowa State: Farmageddon lives! The Cyclones are still alive in the complicated Big 12 tiebreaker. In a four-way tie at the top, it is most likely Arizona State and Iowa State in the Big 12 title game. The Cyclones have to win and root for losses by at least two of these three: Colorado, Arizona State and BYU.
Houston at No. 19 BYU: If BYU gets to Arlington, it will do so backing in. Two straight losses mean the Cougars need help. Any combination of a BYU win and a loss by two of these three – ASU, Colorado and Iowa State — gets the Cougars in.
Oklahoma State at No. 25 Colorado: CU’s loss to Kansas cost the Buffs dearly; they now need help as one of four teams tied for the Big 12 lead. The easiest way for Colorado to get to the Big 12 Championship Game is to beat the Cowboys and have at least two of these three lose: Iowa State, BYU and ASU. If all four win, Arizona State and Iowa State have the advantage. The entertainment value is high here as Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter could run up big numbers against an Okie State squad that has lost eight in a row and seems disinterested.
Oregon State at No. 11 Boise State: Even though the Broncos have clinched a spot in the Mountain West Championship Game, they likely have to win twice to get in the CFP. The Beavers are no pushover.
Utah State at Colorado State: Jay Norvell has done a heck of a job rallying the Rams after a Week 3 loss at home to Colorado. CSU’s conversation begins by beating the Aggies on Friday night. They then need Nevada to win at UNLV Saturday to get in the Mountain West Championship Game. Most significant if CSU wins out is that might knock the MWC out of the CFP.
UTSA at Army: Army stays in the running for a playoff spot (if Boise loses) and to host the American title game (if Tulane loses).
Memphis at No. 17 Tulane: The Green Wave clinch home field in the American title game with a win. This one has added value. Can the Green Wave hold on to Jon Sumrall?
No. 10 Indiana at Purdue: This another one where Curt Cignetti could afford to rest his starters. Purdue is that bad. Third (or fourth) place is not a bad place to be in the Big Ten. Indiana is favored by four touchdowns. Take the Hoosiers and run to the betting window. They are 8-3 against the spread this season.
West Virginia at Texas Tech: Nine teams are still alive in the Big 12. This is an elimination game if multiple three-loss teams become involved in the tiebreaker.
Cal at No. 9 SMU: Cal is feeling pretty good about itself after beating Stanford to become bowl eligible. Even “Cal Equipment Guy” trended. If the Bears can play defense like they protect their helmets, SMU might be in trouble. The Mustangs have clinched a spot in the ACC Championship Game. If SMU wins out that might clinch the best success story of the season.
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