There’s some real action to be found on the Week 5 college football schedule before Saturday hits. Army vs. East Carolina provides some good mid-major fun on Thursday, but it’s the Florida State vs. Virginia showdown on Friday that should have bettors glued to their screens. Veteran college football betting expert Bruce Marshall has insight every contest on the schedule. Here’s the information he’s working with for Thursday and Friday’s games.
Army at East Carolina (Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET)
Who says Army isn’t built for comebacks? The Black Knights looked almost certain to come up short last week vs. North Texas at Michie Stadium before an unlikely last three minutes when West Point scored ten points, the last three on a field goal by Dawson Jones with nine seconds to play, forcing the Mean Green into overtime. The Black Knights did end up losing, but they demonstrated some extra dimensions most weren’t expecting.
The scheduling doesn’t look bad this week for the trip to Greenville, as the host Pirates haven’t had much extra time to get ready for the West Point option after being preoccupied with a bruising BYU last week. That whole frustrating evening didn’t go well for ECU, ending up on the short end of a 34-13 scoreline. This matchup vs. the Black Knights didn’t work too well for the Pirates last year. They were battered 45-28 at West Point, a flattering score for ECU as it trailed 38-7 into the fourth quarter. It would be the last game for Mike Houston in charge of the Pirates, who were alternately pounded and befuddled most of the afternoon by the rugged Army option that churned for 295 rushing yards, led by since-graduated QB Bryson Daily, who accounted for well over 300 yards worth of offense.
There’s no Daily this season for Jeff Monken, which on the surface appears one very distinct difference from last year’s West Point team, but the “new Army” has already won at Kansas State and forced a couple of better-than-advertised opponents into overtime. Daily’s replacement at QB, Dewayne Coleman, is showing to be a competent pilot, and Cale Hellums can provide a change of pace after recently rushing for 124 yards at Manhattan vs. the Wildcats. The Army option is still gobbling up yards on the ground (301 yards per game) and ranks fourth nationally in rushing stats. After BYU mauled the Pirates defense for better than five yards per carry last week, can ECU expect any better performance vs. West Point?
This could be a problem for Pirates coach Blake Harrell, who needs to get his defebse off of the field so the ECU offense can move in an unencumbered fashion behind QB Katin Houser. It won’t be easy. Even with ECU covering eight of 11 since midseason a year ago, we’d rather not bet against Army here, especially if the Pirates are still licking their wounds after the BYU loss.
Florida State at Virginia (Friday, 7 p.m. ET)
All is seemingly well with the world, at least in Tallahassee, with Mike Norvell’s Seminoles apparently back in form after their 3-0 break from the gate and return to the national polls (slotted at the No. 8 spot this week). Last season’s 2-10 face plant pushed Norvell to go heavy into the portal, and it seems to have worked. A shock win in the opener over Alabama will tend to do all sorts of giddy things to a win-hungry fan base, though we suggest that subsequent napalm jobs vs. East Texas A&M and MAC lightweight Kent State were more expected results. Maybe new OC Gus Malzahn was just taking out some frustrations after a mostly unsatisfying recent head coaching stint at UCF.
There’s a difference with this year’s Seminoles — swagger. That’s what transfer QB Tommy Castellanos has brought to Tallahassee, earning the respect of his teammates for boldly calling out the Crimson Tide in the summer prior to the opener. It’s a big departure from a year ago when FSU seemed to suffer from the on-field aloofness and lack of fire delivered at QB by DJ Uiagalelei. Compared to his predecessor, Castellanos has been a breath of fresh air, though regional insiders also suggest that Norvell did a better job with his portal adds than a year ago, especially along the offensive line. Useful transfer adds are also now providing more steel to the defense and its new coordinator, Tony White, who being mentioned as a possible candidate to succeed the deposed DeShaun Foster at alma mater UCLA.
What we don’t yet know, however, is how much this FSU renaissance has to do with the schedule (Bama plus two lightweights) or a sign of real resurgence by the Noles, who among other things also lead the nation in total offense at 628 yards per game. FSU also travels away from Tallahassee for the first time this week after losing all five road games in 2024.
The other part of the equation on Saturday is an improved Virginia, which is also making its own recovery for fourth-year head coach Tony Elliott, who entered this campaign badly needing nothing short of the first bowl trip for the Cavaliers in his tenure. One difference seems to be North Texas transfer QB Chandler Morris, who has bounced around the college landscape (Oklahoma, TCU, UNT) before landing at Virginia. Morris is piloting an offense that ranks fifth nationally at better than 564 yards per game while scoring nearly 46 points per game. He’s already passed for more than 1000 yards and completed better than 70% of his passes. The Cavs are stressing balance, though, running about 55% of the time and churning out better than 250 yards per game on the ground, led by NC Central transfer J’Mari Taylor’s 6.2 yards per carry.
Not to sound too snarky, but we’d like to see FSU prove it again, this time on the road, as there are a few who believe Bama’s penchant for disappearing acts on the road for Kalen DeBoer had much to do with that rousing opening win for FSU. No matter how impressive, we still need a bit more evidence that FSU is really “back” in 2025. Win one on the road at a tricky venue, and maybe then we’ll hop on board. Besides, Virginia might be hard to bypass at this price. We also won’t be surprised to see these teams push the total into the 60s… and that might not even be high enough.
TCU at Arizona State (Friday, 9 p.m. ET)
Maybe the Sun Devils weren’t just a one-year wonder last season for fiery young head coach Kenny Dillingham, who needed only two seasons to put his alma mater back on the map. There was a school of thought among many Big 12 onlookers that much of last year’s rousing and very unexpected success (a Big 12 title and a bye to the CFP quarterfinals, where ASU might have been unfortunate not to knock off Texas in a double-OT thriller) was more than partly due to the ultra-physical RB Cam Skattebo, who powered for better than 1700 rushing yards and scored a whopping 24 TDs before moving on to the NFL. After the Sun Devils looked a bit out of sorts in their opening pair of games, including a galling loss at SEC Mississippi State, some suggested it wouldn’t be the same this year in the desert. Yet back-to-back wins and covers against a feisty Texas State and then a gut-check success last Saturday at Baylor in an early Big 12 showdown suggests that maybe Dillingham really has a secret recipe for success at ASU.
What Dillingham also has is sophomore dual-threat QB Sam Leavitt, who may be first-round pick material should he choose to declare for the draft after this season. Leavitt seems to have rediscovered some of that 2024 mojo in his last two starts, avoiding picks in the wins over the Bobcats and at Waco after tossing three of them in the opening pair vs. Northern Arizona and Mississippi State. Leavitt has also run for 219 yards in four games, able to do almost as much damage with his legs as his arm. Meanwhile, though Skattebo is now a pro, Dillingham’s new stable of runners is cracking at almost 220 yards per game, ranking a very respectable 24th nationally in rush stats and now featuring former USC transfer Raleek Brown (372 rushing yards and 6.6 yards per carry) and Army transfer Kanye Udoh (1,117 rushing yards last year at West Point). Meanwhile, with nine starters still in the fold from last season when ASU led the Big 12 in rush defense, Dillingham’s defense is unlikely to get overrun, and save for one coverage breakdown in the last minute at Starkville, the Sun Devils would be sitting at 4-0 into this week.
Several Big 12 insiders, however, believe Friday will prove the toughest test yet for this updated Sun Devil team, as TCU is generating some of those 2022 vibes again in Fort Worth after its own quick start (3-0) that includes a thumping of Bill Belichick’s North Carolina in the opener and a sweet revenge win in the battle for the Iron Skillet against MCU. That win over the Mustangs might have impressed more than the dismembering of Belichick’s nascent Tar Heels in the opener, holding the potent Ponies at bay while the Frogs offense hit some more very high notes behind gunslinger QB Josh Hoover, who torched SMU through the air with 379 passing yards and five TDs. Through three games, Hoover has already amassed better than 1,000 passing yards and has 11 TD tosses, which if extrapolated could possibly equate to some Heisman-worthy stats and consideration come December.
He’s the centerpiece of a what is currently the 14th-ranked offense in the country. While it might be tempting for TCU to switch conferences to the ACC after whipping the Tar Heels and Mustangs, remember that Sonny Dykes got to the national title game three years ago out of the Big 12, and the Frogs bring a seven-game win streak (the conference’s longest) into Tempe on Friday night. This has all the earmarks of a shootout, so the total might not be high enough, and whichever defense can make one more stop might prove the difference in the game. With such tight margins, we’d rather take the points with the dangerous Frogs, who have passed their September tests with flying colors thus far.
Houston at Oregon State (Friday, 10:30 p.m. ET)
The leaves haven’t even started to change colors for the fall in Corvallis and they’re already thinking about basketball season and the debut of the new Pac-12 in 2026, of which OSU and Washington State will be the flagship carriers. Anything, it would seem, to get minds off of what is rapidly turning into an ugly season for the Beavers, off to an 0-4 start and threatening to become bowl-ineligble by Columbus Day.
Some regional observers wonder if losing the carrot, at least until 2026, of a conference race the past two seasons has taken some of the starch out of the program. Cracks began to surface about midway last season in a slate full of Mountain West opponents with losses in six of the last seven to close 2024. It was hoped that much-traveled QB Maalik Murphy, who didn’t fare too badly at Duke last fall before getting pushed out of Durham in favor of Tulane transfer Darian Mensah, would help matters. But Murphy has instead looked scattershot, already tossing five picks along with just six TD passes in four games. There is no run game to speak of, gaining a paltry 70 yards per game on the ground, with holdover Anthony Hankerson the only threat but finding it awfully hard to find any running room whatsoever. Meanwhile the defense, supposedly head coach Trent Bray’s specialty, ranks 127th nationally. On top of that, the turnover margin (-4) is tied for 11th in the nation. The team has managed just two covers in its last eleven games. No wonder Beavers Nation is beginning to wonder aloud if the frustrated Bray is the right man to lead the program into its new frontier next fall. We’d report some positives if we could find them.
Meanwhile, we only have positives to report about visiting Houston, which looks to have turned the corner for veteran coach Willie Fritz. After successes at all previous career stops, including some rousing highlights in recent years at Tulane, Fritz was expected to get the Cougars headed in the right direction at some point. The adjustment phase last year from the loosey-goosey Dana Holgorsen regime required a culture change, but after clearing the deadwood last fall, Fritz has molded a new team more in the image of his many past winners.
One plus was luring former Texas A&M QB Conner Weigman from the portal to become yet another of Jimbo Fisher’s QB recruits at College Station finding a better life away from Kyle Field. Weigman, however, is only part of the narrative with the Cougars, helping mostly with mistake-free leadership (no picks in four games) for a run-heavy offense that pounds the rock at an almost 2:1 ratio vs. the pass. The Cougars have gone for better than 200 yards per game on the ground, featuring RB Dean Connors (better than 90 yards per game) as well as Weigman, who has used his wheels to provide an extra dimension. At 3-0 both outright and vs. the spread, Houston is on the move with Fritz, with the added bonus of a defense that’s allowing less than 10 PPG (ranks 11th) while slotting in at ninth nationally in total defense (224 ypg).
If the recent form stays true for these two, this spread doesn’t look high enough. We’d be surprised if the Cougars, well-rested from their last game on a similar Friday two weeks ago vs. Colorado, can’t extend this margin well beyond two TDs.
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