Each Sunday during the season, I will preview some of the bigger college football games early in the week, give my initial lean, and recommend to either bet it early or wait for a better line. Just for clarification, I will always mention if I already bet the game personally so there is no confusion.
My official Week 7 plays will be out later in the week and I will also post all my picks in the SportsLine Discord as soon as I bet them. This article is more about giving advice so you can get the best number in the higher-profile games every Saturday.
Here are my early thoughts on the Week 7 matchups.
Texas Longhorns (-3) vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Texas was vastly overrated by me and many others heading into the season. The Longhorns have played two games against teams with heartbeats and didn’t look good. Heck, they didn’t look all that good against UTEP either.
The problem with betting against Texas here is this number is just too low with Oklahoma likely going with backup quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. I actually had this game circled and would have bet the Sooners if John Mateer were healthy. There was some hope Mateer could return on Saturday, although head coach Brent Venables said he isn’t planning on the quarterback suiting up.
I would make Oklahoma -1 with Mateer. I don’t think a four-point swing is enough considering Mateer was the Heisman Trophy favorite before getting injured. I’m laying off this game personally. However, if you like Texas, I would grab the three points early. Keep in mind the lookahead number was the Longhorns -9.5 and while Texas looked terrible last week at Florida, this is too much of an overreaction without Mateer.
Of course, you can always look at under 42.5 points instead. Touchdowns should be hard to come by with Hawkins and the struggling Arch Manning facing two of the better defenses in college football.
Bet now: Texas -3
Oregon Ducks (-10) vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Oregon opened up as a double-digit favorite at home over Indiana and if you like the Ducks, I would wait until later in the week. I think we will see some early money backing the Hoosiers and knocking this line down a bit.
I mentioned Texas was overvalued entering the season. The same can certainly be said for Penn State. After losing to Oregon at home, the Nittany Lions got upset by previously winless UCLA. I’m not saying that’s still not a good win for the Ducks. I believe Oregon is the most balanced team in the country. However, Indiana is also highly rated and pro bettors I spoke to on Sunday had already grabbed the Hoosiers at +10.
I can see this number settling at around Oregon -8. If you plan to bet Indiana, take the 10 points early. If you like the Ducks in this matchup, wait for a better number. I would consider the Ducks at -8 or less.
Wait: Oregon -8 or better
South Carolina Gamecocks (+10) at LSU Tigers
This is the one early line that looks way out of whack to me. LSU is still a little overvalued in the market considering the Tigers’ offense has struggled this season. I make the Tigers -7 at home in this matchup.
South Carolina has two losses but keep in mind starting quarterback LaNorris Sellers got hurt against Vanderbilt and the Gamecocks were outscored 17-0 in the second half without him. The 29-20 loss to Missouri was a lot closer than the score suggests. South Carolina led 20-18 after three quarters before Missouri scored the final 11 points to win by nine.
It’s hard to cover double digits when you don’t score much. LSU scored 20 points or less in its three games against Clemson, Florida and Ole Miss. The one game out of the three where the Tigers scored 20 (Florida), they needed a late pick-six to get there.
I can see this being another lower scoring game. As of Sunday afternoon, we already saw a couple of books move to 9.5. I would grab the 10 points with South Carolina. I don’t see that number being around into Monday.
Bet now: South Carolina +10
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