Every Thursday during the college football season, I’ll share who I think are the most undervalued and overvalued teams across that week’s slate.
A great example of a “spot” play is Vanderbilt’s upset over Alabama last season. The Commodores were returning home after two straight road losses, while Alabama was coming off an emotional win over No. 2 Georgia. Vanderbilt won the game outright as a 23-point underdog.
We will see more spots like that once the season gets going, and I’ll debut the article next Thursday for Week 1. With only five games on the slate this Saturday, I’ll take a different approach and look at some teams that are undervalued and overvalued based on the Week 1 odds.
Undervalued
Old Dominion Monarchs
Old Dominion Monarchs is a team I like this season. I bet the Monarchs to win the Sun Belt Conference at +1000, and I also took ODU +23.5 in Week 1 vs. Indiana.
The Monarchs went 5-7 last season but lost just one game by more than eight points (Virginia Tech). They have 13 starters back, led by sophomore quarterback Colton Joseph. The dual-threat quarterback started the team’s final eight games last season and accounted for half of Old Dominion’s 44 touchdowns by throwing for 11 and running for 11 more.
The Monarchs have been bet down to 22.5 in Week 1, although I still believe they are worth a look at that number. This is a team that should be profitable in conference play too, especially as an underdog.
Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas Jayhawks is a team I’m higher on than some entering the season. The Jayhawks are coming off a disappointing 5-7 season where they lost five games by six points or less. I gave out Kansas -12.5 as my favorite play in Week 0 against a Fresno State team with a new coach and retooled roster.
Former North Dakota State head coach Matt Entz was a good hire for the Bulldogs, although I expect his team to struggle early. Fresno State is replacing 70% of its offensive production and eight starters on defense from last season.
The market has gone against the Jayhawks in this matchup. Kansas opened -14 and is down to -12.5 at most books. I disagree with the line move. I make the Jayhawks -14.5 at home. I am also interested in Kansas beyond Week 0. The Jayhawks play four of their first five games at home, giving Kansas the opportunity to get off to a fast start in 2025.
UCLA Bruins
UCLA Bruins was involved in a major storyline this offseason when Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava decided to transfer to the Bruins. Whatever you think of the situation, Iamaleava is a major upgrade at quarterback for UCLA, and his presence makes the Bruins an interesting team in the Big Ten in 2025.
I thought DeShaun Foster did an excellent job last season. The 5-7 record doesn’t jump off the page, but he took over a challenging situation after Chip Kelly left and his team was a tough out most weeks. Foster is getting more talent to UCLA through the transfer portal, and the Bruins could be better than many people are projecting this season.
I’m high on Utah heading into the year. I bet the Utes to win the Big 12. However, we have seen the number in this game jump from Utah -4.5 to -6.5. Now I see value backing the Bruins at home. Keep an eye on UCLA. The Bruins could be a very profitable team against the spread this season.
Overvalued
Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State Buckeyes makes my overvalued list for one simple reason: I believe the Buckeyes will be better in November than early in the season.
I gave out Texas +3, and the number is now +2.5. I would still take the Longhorns at +2 or higher. I make Texas -3 on a neutral field and think the number versus Ohio State should be closer to a pick ’em. My guess is the +2.5 won’t be around closer to kickoff.
Last season, we saw the Buckeyes peak in the playoffs. I don’t think it will take quite that long this year, but Texas is getting them at the right time in Week 1. If the two teams meet again four months from now in the CFP, I might think differently about the outcome. For now, though, Texas sits atop my power rankings, and I have to back them as a small dog here.
South Florida Bulls
I talk to a lot of bettors throughout the year, and in my opinion, the toughest thing for most people is to differentiate teams they like or don’t like and the word “value.” I’m high on the South Florida Bulls this season in the AAC, but I don’t agree with the big line movement we have seen in Week 1 vs. Boise State.
USF opened +9.5 at home. At that point, my numbers showed value on the Bulls because I made Boise -7.5. However, South Florida is now +6.5, so the value has shifted to the Broncos laying under a touchdown.
South Florida has a nightmare opening three games against Boise State before going to Florida and Miami. My advice is if you missed the good number on the Bulls, be patient. South Florida is a veteran team that returns 13 starters. If the Bulls can fix a defense that allowed 30+ points in its final three games last season, they could win the AAC.
Wait for a better opportunity to back South Florida rather than settling for a bad number against Boise State in Week 1.
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