Each Sunday during the season, I will preview some of the bigger college football games early in the week, give my initial lean, and recommend to either bet it early or wait for a better line. Just for clarification, I will always mention if I already bet the game personally so there is no confusion.
My official Week 6 plays will be out later in the week, and I will also post all my picks in the SportsLine Discord as soon as I bet them. This article is more about giving advice so you can get the best number in the higher-profile games every Saturday.
Here are my early thoughts on the Week 6 matchups:
Florida State Seminoles (+5.5) vs. Miami Hurricanes
This is an interesting spot for Florida State at home coming off the loss to Virginia on Friday. I don’t have a strong opinion on this game and probably won’t play it personally, although I would wait if you want to bet the Seminoles.
The market is high on Miami, and we saw a slight move on this line already from 4.5 to 5.5. I can see the number going a little higher, but I do expect some buyback on Florida State once it gets to 6.5. This is a matchup where we could see solid-two-way action on both teams at different numbers.
My advice is if you like Miami, take the Hurricanes early at -5.5. If you want to back the Seminoles, wait to see if the line gets to 6.5. If it does, act quickly. I think we could see this number teeter back and forth from 5.5 and 6.5 early in the week.
Wait: Florida State +6.5 or better
Texas Longhorns (-7) vs. Florida Gators
We have seen money back Florida in both of its big games so far against Miami and LSU. The result was the Gators getting outscored 46-17 and failing to cover both times. You know the old saying, fool me once…
Both teams are coming off byes, but I think the week off benefited Texas more. Florida spent last week licking its wounds after three straight losses and wondering when head coach Billy Napier is going to get fired. My worry here is if Texas jumps out early, how will the fragile Gators respond?
I don’t think we see early money backing Florida for a third straight game. The market has been high on Texas all season, and we have yet to see the Longhorns play their best game. The Gators struggled to do much on offense against South Florida, LSU and Miami. Look for that trend to continue against an elite Texas defense.
Some books opened the Longhorns -6.5 and it quickly moved to -7. I don’t think the number will climb much higher. However, if you like Texas, don’t be greedy and grab -7 early.
Bet: Texas -7
Vanderbilt Commodores (+13.5) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Last season, Alabama defeated Georgia in an instant classic before facing Vanderbilt as a 13.5-point favorite. The result? The Commodores won outright. Will history repeat itself on Saturday?
Vanderbilt has been undervalued since the summer. I’m still kicking myself for not taking over the Commodores’ win total at 4.5. A few books opened the Crimson Tide -14.5 at home, but the number moved to 13.5. That was the consensus line as of early Sunday afternoon.
I don’t think we see this line get back up over 14. If it does, my guess is it won’t last very long. With 14 being a key number, I expect pro bettors to keep hitting the Commodores if it climbs back to 14.5. I see it going the other way and settling at 12.5 early in the week.
I don’t always bet teams early if the number is 13.5 because sometimes it makes sense to wait on that extra half point. I just don’t see it happening here. I make the Crimson Tide -12, so I am fine taking Vanderbilt at 13.5. If you like Alabama to avenge last season’s loss, stay patient — you should get a better line throughout the week.
Bet: Vanderbilt +13.5
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