Remember when North Florida earned 14 votes for the AP Top 25 on Nov. 11 after beating South Carolina and Georgia Tech in a six-day span? Ah, memories.
Anyway, North Florida earned the distinction of being the first team eliminated from its conference tournament. The Ospreys can officially turn their attention to the offseason after a 90-69 loss to Austin Peay in the first round of the ASUN Tournament. Not to be outdone, Central Arkansas sent Stetson packing in the other ASUN Tournament tilt behind 37 points, 11 rebounds and four dimes from big man Nehemiah Turner.
Selection Sunday might be less than two weeks away, but it’s bracket season. CBS Sports’ Isaac Trotter and Cameron Salerno dive into various topics in the sport they’re buying or selling, starting with the oft-discussed bubble.
1. Buy or sell: Arkansas will make the NCAA Tournament
Salerno: Sell. Getting outclassed on the road to the worst team in the SEC should be the final nail in the coffin for Arkansas, though there’s solace for John Calipari & Co. because the bubble isn’t great, which increases Arkansas’ chances of getting into the field. The reason I’m selling this, though, is there will inevitably be bid stealers who could bump Arkansas out for good.
Trotter: Sell. A road loss to South Carolina isn’t a bad one, in theory, but the way it looked was discouraging. Arkansas has done a nice job of avoiding those back-breaking, resume-killing marks. It’s 11-0 in Quad 3 or Quad 4 contests. But I think the knee injury to Adou Thiero is going to end up hurting this club. This offense has a scary-low floor when Thiero is not on the floor. Arkansas manages a meager 97 points per 100 possessions without Thiero against top-100 teams, per hoop-explorer. Arkansas probably needs two more victories to feel good on Selection Sunday. I don’t think the Hawgs can score consistently enough to make it happen.
If Arkansas misses out on the Big Dance, don’t overlook Calipari’s decision to ride with nine SEC-caliber players and load up on walk-ons to fill the rest of the roster out. The lack of depth is coming back to bite Arkansas at the wrong time.
2. Buy or sell: Texas Tech is the second-best team in the Big 12
Salerno: Buy. This Texas Tech roster is fun to watch. I’m confident they will make a deep run in March. JT Toppin should be an All-American when it’s all said and done. They’re coming off a gritty win on the road against Kansas and are the only team to hand conference champ Houston a loss in Big 12 play. Sure, you can argue that Iowa State or Arizona is the second-best team in the Big 12, but Texas Tech has been far more consistent. A rematch between Texas Tech and Houston for the Big 12 title would be cinema.
Trotter: Buy … but it’s extremely close because Iowa State is starting to feel like Iowa State again now that Milan Momcilovic, Curtis Jones and Keshon Gilbert are fully healthy and rockin’ and rollin’. Buying into Texas Tech is easy because this offense is just a blast. The Red Raiders have built a cohesive unit with very little positional overlap. Toppin is an excellent paint scorer who can step out and keep defenses honest with pick-and-pop 3s. Darrion Williams is a menace in isolation who can downshift to any role necessary. Elijah Hawkins and Christian Anderson can both handle point guard duties easily. Chance McMillian is one of the elite shooters in college basketball, but there are nights when Kerwin Walton might outshine him as a long-range marksman.
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Texas Tech is the second-best team in this league because it can score at all three levels and it’s elite in both the halfcourt and in transition opportunities. This playbook should be the envy of offensive coordinators everywhere. Grant McCasland’s vision is rounding into form at the right time.
3. Buy or sell: Kentucky will make the Sweet 16 even without Jaxson Robinson
Salerno: Buy. Kentucky is a completely different team without Robinson and Lamont Butler in the lineup. The good news is Butler is back. The bad news is Robinson, Kentucky’s second-leading scorer, is out for the year. Still, I believe Kentucky can make a run. Not only have they shown the ability to beat quality opponents shorthanded (see the most recent Tennessee game), but the Wildcats have been good against top-tier competition. Wins over Duke, Florida and Gonzaga seem like they happened a lifetime ago, but Mark Pope’s squad has shown the ability to punch up when facing a better opponent. That translates to the NCAA Tournament. Kentucky will be in the Sweet 16 later this month.
Trotter: Sell. Kentucky is a tough cover and a brutal short turnaround prep which certainly matters in March, but the Wildcats’ second-weekend appeal hinges on Butler, who has battled back to get on the floor but still doesn’t quite look like himself. If Kentucky drops to that 4-line, there are terrifying No. 13 seeds like High Point or Akron that could await. Plus, that Round of 32 game could easily be against a dangerous No. 5 seed like Clemson or Maryland. Kentucky could very well find itself underdogs in the second round even if it survives the first round.
I want to like Kentucky, but backing a team with a “one-armed bandit” at point guard and a defense that can’t stop a nosebleed is a scary proposition. A second-weekend appearance would be a huge success for Mark Pope in Year 1 because this is likely going to be Pope’s least-talented team in his Kentucky era. Reinforcements are coming.
4. Buy or sell: Derik Queen has a case for Big Ten Freshmen of the Year
Salerno: Buy. In a league with three projected top-five picks, Queen has been arguably the best player of that bunch. As Trotter noted below, Queen balled out against Rutgers earlier this season and outplayed Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper. Maryland is also a better team than Rutgers — which isn’t saying much — but it should count for something. Harper was the popular preseason pick to win Big Ten FOY (and I still think he will win the award), but Queen has a strong case. On a side note, if you haven’t watched Queen yet, you should do so before March Madness begins. The way he plays will make him a March Madness legend/fan favorite.
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Trotter: Buy. You could make a case that the best version of Dylan Harper, the guy who dropped 34 on Washington, 28 on Illinois or 25 and nine dimes on USC, has been the most dominant freshman in the Big Ten. But Rutgers is 7-11 in league play and Harper has missed real time. Meanwhile, Maryland will enter March as a dangerous, Final Four threat with Queen leading the charge. He’s been my pick to win Big Ten Freshman of the Year for a minute. There’s no reason to switch up now. Even with a jumper that can go AWOL, Queen’s big-boy drives feel utterly unguardable.
5. Buy or sell: North Carolina will make the NCAA Tournament
Salerno: Buy. It’s gut check time in Chapel Hill. To an extent, North Carolina controls its destiny to make the NCAA Tournament. The Tar Heels can (obviously) still pull an NC State and win the ACC Tournament and get an automatic bid, but this weekend’s matchup with Duke is a must-win game for their tournament hopes. The Blue Devils embarrassed the Tar Heels at Cameron Indoor Stadium in the first matchup, and this is their chance to get payback. Out of all the teams on the bubble, no one can add a statement to their respective resumé like UNC can this weekend.
Trotter: Sell. I’ve flip-flopped on this for a week. The more I look into it, the more I think UNC’s recent five-game winning streak can be attributed to a 3-point heater that might not be sustainable. UNC is shooting 46% from downtown in the last five games combined. Its opponents are at 33%. That 13-point gap is pretty darn wide and isn’t sustainable. It also may come down to the draw in the ACC Tournament. I don’t think UNC matches up well with Duke or Clemson at all because of the paint dominance for both of those respective clubs. Be careful what you wish for, but a matchup against Louisville could be more up North Carolina’s alley.
Barring something unexpected, UNC is likely headed for the No. 6 seed in the ACC Tournament. That would very likely set up a rematch against … Clemson. UNC can make the Big Dance with a loss to Duke, but it can’t afford to lose to both Duke and Clemson. Even with the pivot to a bigger lineup, I don’t think UNC has enough answers for either of those clubs. I think it ends up left out in the cold on Selection Sunday even with bubble teams like Arkansas and Nebraska self-sabotaging.
6. Buy or sell: Tennessee stays on the No. 1 line come Selection Sunday
Salerno: Buy. Tennessee having the head-to-head advantage over Alabama is a massive development for its chances of staying on the No. 1 line. The only way Tennessee falls off this line is a disastrous ending to the regular season and/or an early exit in the SEC Tournament. Alabama does have a chance to add two big wins (Florida/Auburn) before the regular season ends, but even if that happens, the Crimson Tide face an uphill climb to jump the Volunteers for a No. 1 seed. The next two weeks would have to be chaotic for Alabama to have a chance.
Bracketology: Tennessee joins No. 1 seeds, Alabama falls to a No. 2 after Volunteers’ victory vs. Crimson Tide
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Trotter: Buy. Entering Sunday, Auburn is the only team in the country with more Quad 1 victories than Tennessee (10). The Vols have lost five games to four tournament teams (Florida, Vanderbilt, Auburn and Kentucky twice). This resume just doesn’t have many flaws. I think Tennessee can lose a game in the ultra-tough SEC Tournament and still get a No. 1 seed.
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