It’s remarkable that in a season chalked full of competent clubs, we’ve reached the home stretch with numerous high-major conference races almost over.
The Big Ten is the only high-major league with real intrigue. Four teams entered the weekend with championship aspirations. That list just got cut in half after Wisconsin and Purdue all but fell out of the race with losses to Oregon and Indiana, respectively. With less than two weeks to go in the regular season, it’s an in-state dual for the crown between Michigan and Michigan State. That regular-season finale on March 9 could be for all the marbles.
March is coming, so CBS Sports’ Isaac Trotter and Cameron Salerno dive into various topics in the sport they’re buying or selling, starting with the ole Spartans.
1. Buy or sell: Is Michigan State good enough to win the national championship?
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Trotter: Sell. Michigan State has something special brewing but winning a national championship with a halfcourt offense that ranks 11th in the Big Ten in efficiency is a bridge just a tad too far. I think Michigan State has clearly proven it has what it takes to string wins together in March, especially since it finally unleashed fabulous freshman Jase Richardson and armed him with well over 30 minutes, but I can’t shake the feeling that this shaky halfcourt offense is going to come back and haunt MSU at the wrong time.
Salerno: Buy. Coming into the season, I was personally lower on Michigan State. Instead of doubling down on my preseason prediction, it’s time to acknowledge that the Spartans can win six consecutive games in the NCAA Tournament. As our Matt Norlander wrote over the weekend, this is Jase Richardson’s team. If you haven’t watched Coen Carr yet, he is one of the best highflyers in the sport. There aren’t many college basketball coaches who elevate their teams in March like Tom Izzo does at Michigan State. I’m officially buying into the hype after Michigan State recorded a statement win on the road against Michigan.
2. Buy or sell: Does Wake Forest reach the NCAA Tournament?
Trotter: Sell. And it’s a shame because Hunter Sallis and Cam Hildreth are a bucket-getting duo that can go toe-to-toe with anybody, and forward Tre’Von Spillers is one of the elite role players in the ACC. But Wake Forest can only blame itself if it does not get good news on Selection Sunday. That devastating home loss to Florida State when it led by 16 points with 8:22 to go will linger for a long, long time if Wake Forest ends up on the wrong side of the cut-line.
Salerno: Sell. As of today, Wake Forest is in the NCAA Tournament as a No. 11 seed, according to CBS Sports Bracketology Expert Jerry Palm. The Demon Deacons lost 85-73 on the road to a bad NC State team less than two weeks after blowing a double-digit lead to Florida State at home. With games on the schedule against Virginia, Notre Dame, Duke and Georgia Tech to close the regular season, there won’t be many opportunities to beef up their résumé. A win over Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium would be huge but seems very unlikely because of how well the Blue Devils are playing. Wake Forest is currently No. 62 in the NET Rankings and there are a handful of teams on the bubble capable of drastically improving their résumé between now and Selection Sunday. Barring a run like NC State had last spring in the ACC Tournament, Wake Forest might be on the outside looking in.
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3. Buy or sell: More than two teams from the Mountain West will make the NCAA Tournament
Trotter: Buy. But it’s going to be really close. Utah State and New Mexico are poised to dance. It really does come down to San Diego State, who can’t afford a shaky loss and could be short-handed without star freshman big man Magoon Gwath who suffered a scary-looking leg injury in Saturday’s loss to Utah State. Gwath is not San Diego State’s best player, but he’s one of its most important hoopers. The Aztecs’ defense is over 11 points per 100 possessions worse without its intimidating shot-blocker. If he’s out for any semblance of time, it could get hairy for San Diego State down the stretch.
Salerno: Buy. Two teams from the Mountain West (barring some madness in the next three weeks) should be safely in the field: Utah State and New Mexico. After that, San Diego State has a strong case and Boise State could also sneak into the field (currently one of the Last Four Out) by closing the season strong. And we haven’t even talked about the possibility of a potential bid stealer in the Mountain West Tournament, either. I would be shocked if the Mountain West doesn’t get at least three teams in the field. There is a case for potentially four, too.
4. Buy or sell: Will one of this big-brand batch of No. 8 or No. 9 seeds reach the Sweet 16?
Trotter: Buy. Preseason top-10 teams like UConn, Gonzaga and Baylor are shaping up to be a No. 8 or No. 9 seed. That’s insane. Even after a rough home loss to Saint Mary’s, Gonzaga is still No. 11 on KenPom. The last time a top-10 KenPom team earned a No. 9 seed was in 2021 and Porter Moser’s Loyola-Chicago club upset No. 1 seed Illinois. This group of No. 1 seeds is insanely good, but that Round of 32 game for one or two of them is not going to be easy at all. Are you really looking forward to being a four-point favorite over a Gonzaga team that has had insanely bad luck in late-game scenarios this season and could easily be a No. 5 seed if a couple of breaks had gone its way?? Are you really fired up about seeing Dan Hurley on the opposing sideline with a Sweet 16 berth on the line? Are you really fired up about having to try and defend Baylor’s cavalry of outstanding guards? Me neither.
Salerno: Buy. For just the fifth time ever last season, every No. 1 and 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament reached the Sweet 16. Based on how this season has gone and how strong the No. 7/8/9 seeds will be this time, it would be surprising to see that trend repeat. Is UConn as good as they were last season? Definitely not. Is Kansas still capable of winning the national title? Probably not. But can either of those teams “upset” a No. 1 or 2 seed in the second round? Absolutely.
5. Buy or sell: Duke or Auburn will be cutting down the nets in San Antonio
Trotter: Buy. Mathematically speaking, I do think it would make sense to pick the field instead of Duke or Auburn. But Duke and Auburn have been my top two teams for months and they have the fewest respective flaws. Both have the National Player of the Year frontrunners. Both have elite rim defense which has become nearly essential to win a title. Both have loads of depth and elite role players. My lone reservation might be Florida. These Gators have everything I want in a title contender, too. But I’ll rock with Auburn or Duke.
Salerno: Sell. Giving me the option to pick two teams (clearly the best teams in the country) or 66 other teams in the field, I’m going with the best of the rest. No, it would not shock me if Auburn or Duke were the last two teams standing. It also wouldn’t surprise me if this is the title game matchup. But this, friends, is the NCAA Tournament. Craziness and weird things happen. That’s the beauty of it. Now, who would I pick to win the national title right now outside of those teams? Not sure. But I know my odds are better with 66 teams instead of two.
6. Buy or sell: Indiana should follow Rick Pitino’s advice and hire Chris Beard as its next coach
Trotter: Buy … but with a few conditions. If Creighton’s Greg McDermott does not want the job, pivoting to Chris Beard makes a lot more sense than hiring the Brad Brownells or Buzz Williamses of the world. The baggage is hard to overlook. Beard was fired from Texas after being arrested and accused of strangulation by his fiancee Randi Trew. The police report from that night was disturbing; the felony charges were later dropped.
Beard would embrace the fishbowl that can be Indiana basketball and would be a (complicated) connective tissue back to Bob Knight, who Beard worked under at Texas Tech. Armed with elite resources, Beard would be primed to put together rosters that would be the envy of numerous Big Ten rivals. It’s also hard to find recruits that do not resonate quickly with Beard. If winning big is the only thing that matters to IU and everything else off the court doesn’t matter, Beard can help the Hoosiers take that jet-pack to the top of the college basketball mountain quicker than the other realistic targets.
Salerno: Sell. Chris Beard is a great coach but Indiana can do better. He helped Ole Miss get off to a hot start in nonconference play last season and has the program on the cusp of its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2019. I would still go in a different direction with this hire because of the potential names you can get. Brad Stevens has already said no and Michigan’s Dusty May just signed an extension to stay at the school. That’s two candidates (who were probably unrealistic to start) off the board. Baylor coach Scott Drew said no to the Kentucky job last season, so who knows if he’s picking up the phone this offseason. If I was Indiana, that would be my first call.
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