The yo-yo effect of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs race can have even the steadiest person’s stomach tied up in knots on a weekly basis. And for the second straight week, a new winner shook up the field to give the standings a fresh look.
This time, it was Chase Briscoe with his fuel-mileage masterclass to hold off Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Denny Hamlin for the win at Pocono Raceway. Known for being one of the most even-keeled drivers in the garage, Briscoe showed steely nerves in the last 30-plus laps as he tried to maintain enough speed, yet save enough fuel, to get to the finish first.
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Briscoe, who was just 39 points above the elimination line after Mexico City, is now safely out of danger and jumped all the way up to eighth place in the playoffs standings following the win. It’s quite the turnaround for a driver who was hit with a 100-point infraction for a spoiler modification (later rescinded upon appeal) to start the season at Daytona International Speedway. Again, it’s that yo-yo effect.
Not everyone is feeling as good as Briscoe, though, as another new winner has put a vise-like grip on those still looking for their first win. Add in the extra element of NASCAR’s first In-Season Challenge, and it could be another wild weekend ahead.
Let’s take a look at the playoff bubble entering Saturday’s Quaker State 400 at EchoPark Speedway, formerly Atlanta Motor Speedway (7 p.m. ET, TNT Sports/truTV, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
Stats courtesy of Racing Insights.
Drivers provisionally qualified for playoffs with a win (11): Kyle Larson (three wins), Denny Hamlin (three wins), Christopher Bell (three wins), William Byron, Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, Austin Cindric, Chase Briscoe, Josh Berry, Shane van Gisbergen and Ross Chastain.
Winless drivers more than 100 points above the elimination line (two): Chase Elliott (+160) and Tyler Reddick (+107).
With 13 spots projected to be filled by the above drivers, there are three spots open for the rest of the field to fight over, including these drivers closest to the elimination line:
| Rank | Driver | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Tyler Reddick | +107 |
| 14 | Chris Buescher | +38 |
| 15 | Bubba Wallace | +29 |
| 16 | Alex Bowman | +20 |
| ELIMINATION LINE | ||
| 17 | Ryan Preece | -20 |
| 18 | AJ Allmendinger | -59 |
| 19 | Erik Jones | -62 |
| 20 | Kyle Busch | -63 |
Bubble analysis: Coming out of Michigan, Bubba Wallace was 61 points above the elimination line and perhaps feeling at least somewhat comfortable. Two races later, including a DNF at Pocono, and the No. 23 Toyota driver now sits just 29 points to the good. For a driver who has had some of his best moments on superspeedways, perhaps EchoPark Speedway will be just what the doctor ordered. Wallace has two top-10 finishes in the last three races there, including a ninth-place performance this spring.
Chris Buescher was the biggest gainer against the elimination line at plus-19 after Pocono and now sits 38 points above the elimination line, which is still not comfortable but a lot better than he was following a 60-point penalty after Kansas (later amended to a 30-point loss after appeal). Buescher seems to have a knack for heating up at this time of the year, too, so if he can get past Atlanta (where he’s finished 30th or worse the last two times out), he could go on a run on the road courses at the Chicago Street Course and Sonoma Raceway.
RELATED: Power Rankings entering Atlanta
Off the charts: It’s getting a little scary for anyone not named Ryan Preece (minus-20) beneath the elimination line. After Preece, the margin drops all the way to minus-59 at AJ Allmendinger, minus-62 for Erik Jones and minus-63 for Kyle Busch. These guys are all starting to lose contact with the elimination line, which means they are falling into must-win territory, if they aren’t there already.
The thing is, all three of those drivers just mentioned are previous Cup winners who have the ability to make like Shane van Gisbergen and become the next to throw a haymaker uppercut from way down low. And they all have a track you can point to in the final nine regular-season races, including Watkins Glen International for Allmendinger, Richmond Raceway for Busch and Daytona for Jones.
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