Chase Check-In: Where we stand before Indianapolis

With five regular-season races left to go in the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series campaign, it‘s time for regular check-ins to see how the race for The Chase is progressing. This week we‘ll chat with you on Thursday, but after the Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, the Chase Check-In will become a Monday thing.

So, what is this thing, anyway? It will be a relatively quick and easy way to see where the drivers competing to make The Chase stand after their most recent race and before their next race. But before we get into how the drivers are doing, let‘s review the format for The Chase, which is back after a 13-year hiatus, albeit in a modified form.

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RELATED: Cup Series standings | Indianapolis weekend schedule

The Chase Returns

Hall of Famer Mark Martin, former Cup champion Chase Elliott and NASCAR CEO Steve O‘Donnell were among those on hand back in January at the NASCAR Productions Facility in Concord, North Carolina, when NASCAR announced The Chase was back.

What this meant was there was no more “win and you‘re in” for the playoffs. Instead, the top 16 drivers in points make The Chase. Then, at the end of the 10 races making up The Chase, the driver with the most points wins the championship.

Instead of 40 points, wins were now worth 55 points to incentivize drivers and teams to still play for the win and not just go for points.

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After the regular-season finale on Aug. 29 at Daytona International Speedway, The Chase field will be set. The regular-season points leader will reset at 2,100 points and start the Southern 500 on Sept. 6 at Darlington Raceway with a 25-point advantage over the second-place driver, who will then have a 10-point advantage over the third-place driver.

After that, each driver will be separated by five points down to the 16th-place driver, who will start The Chase with 2,000 points, a full 100 points behind the No. 1 seed.

Unlike the most recent playoff format, there will be no eliminations in The Chase. All 16 drivers will be in it for the duration, although they may eventually get mathematically eliminated from championship contention.

The Race for No. 1

First, let‘s focus on the top of the standings, where Denny Hamlin holds a distinct advantage for the No. 1 seed and the all-important 25-point head start. Hamlin leads Tyler Reddick by 68 points and Ryan Blaney by 87 points after the race on Sunday at North Wilkesboro Speedway.

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It‘s important to note that all three of these drivers have clinched a spot in The Chase, and they are the only ones to do so at this point. But before we just go ahead and crown Hamlin the regular-season points winner, please consider how much this situation has changed over the past couple of months.

In nine races, Hamlin has gone from 129 points behind Reddick for the No. 1 spot to 68 points ahead of him. This stretch included a run where Hamlin won three straight races (Nashville, Michigan and Pocono) and where he posted six top-five finishes. Meanwhile, Reddick finished 25th or worse five times in this span.

The point we‘re trying to make is a lot still could change during races at Indianapolis, Iowa, Richmond, New Hampshire and Daytona, so keep your eyes focused on the top spot.

The Mythical Top Six

Some prognosticators, including our friends at Racing Insights, who provided all the data here, are pointing to the top six in the points standings as where a driver needs to be to have a legitimate shot at winning the championship. And the top six has stayed relatively consistent throughout the regular season.

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After the top three of Hamlin, Reddick and Blaney, it’s Ty Gibbs, Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson, who all have a steep mountain to climb to get back into the race for the top spot. But Gibbs has a healthy 74-point lead over Elliott for fourth place as he continues to enjoy a breakout season that included his first Cup Series win (Bristol).

Elliott has two wins (Martinsville, Texas) but just an 18-point cushion between himself and Hendrick Motorsports teammate Larson. Meanwhile, the two-time champion Larson is still searching for his first win in 2026, having gone 46 races since his last victory in the spring of 2025 at Kansas Speedway.

Creeping up on Larson for the sixth spot is Spire Motorsports‘ Carson Hocevar, who sits in seventh place just 18 points back. He, like Gibbs, is also enjoying a breakout season that included his first Cup win back at Talladega Superspeedway.

Eleven points behind Hocevar is Chase Briscoe, who recently got his first win of the 2026 season at Chicagoland Speedway and is riding a run of three top-three finishes in four races. Perhaps there’d be nothing better for the Indiana native than to add a Brickyard win to the equation.

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Plus, if Hamlin‘s hot streak taught us anything, it‘s that a well-timed run can help a driver make up ground in a hurry, especially with the 55 points awarded for race wins. So perhaps somebody outside the mythical top six could make a charge into championship contention, too.

The Middle Ground

The middle ground contains some drivers who are sometimes going in opposite directions but always looking for incremental gains and a step up in The Chase standings in order to improve their chances of getting closer to a championship.

Daniel Suárez continues to have a renaissance at Spire Motorsports and has gained 78 points against the cutline in the last nine races. Suárez was just +18 after Watkins Glen but is now +96 after North Wilkesboro. This span included his win in the Coca-Cola 600 on Memorial Day weekend at Charlotte Motor Speedway. The only driver who gained more ground over that span was Chase Briscoe, who improved his position by 131 points.

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Bubba Wallace and Christopher Bell are a couple of drivers to watch at Indianapolis this weekend. Wallace won the Brickyard 400 last year and has finished top 10 in his last four Brickyard 400 starts. Meanwhile, Bell has an average finish of 8.0 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, his best for all tracks.

The Cutline Battle

Some big swings will need to occur in the next five weeks for the battle at the cutline to change much. Austin Cindric, the 16th-place driver, sits a relatively comfortable 33 points ahead of 17th-place Erik Jones and has an 87.2% chance to make The Chase. Meanwhile, Jones has only a 19.5% chance to make it.

Ryan Preece, in 18th place, is 48 points behind Cindric, while Brad Keselowski (minus-58) and Ross Chastain (minus-83) round out the top 20. None of these drivers has a higher percentage than Keselowski at 5.9 to make The Chase.

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Glancing above the cutline, one can see it has gotten more comfortable recently for Shane van Gisbergen after his fifth-place finish at North Wilkesboro. The road-course ace was in for a nailbiter after he crashed out of the San Diego street-course race and missed a golden opportunity to pad his Chase standing. However, the unexpectedly good performance at the short track jumped his probability of making The Chase from 44% to 89%.

Similarly, Joey Logano‘s chances of making The Chase went from 70.4% to 95.9% after his dominating win at North Wilkesboro. After Indianapolis is over, Logano will get the advantage of two more short tracks with Iowa Speedway and Richmond Raceway to potentially pad his 49-point cushion to the cutline.