Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford predictions: Can Crawford make history in the fight of the decade?

It’s being billed as the “biggest fight of the decade,” and this time it’s not just hype.

Saul “Canelo” Alvarez and Terence “Bud” Crawford, two of the best pound-for-pound boxers in the world, are just one sleep away from their undisputed super middleweight title blockbuster clash at the 65,000-seater Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

Advertisement

Victory for Crawford would make him the first-ever three-division male undisputed champion of boxing’s four-belt era, and etch his name onto a very short list of the greatest fighters in the history of the sport.

It’s one of the most anticipated fights in recent years, so let’s not waste any more time.

Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Undisputed super middleweight championship: Canelo Alvarez (-160) vs. Terence Crawford (+145)

Alvarez (63-2-2, 39 KOs) is on a six-fight win streak since his 2022 unanimous decision loss to Dmitry Bivol for the WBA light heavyweight title. The Mexican is 11-0 in the super middleweight division and hasn’t been taken to the wire in any of the fights — it’s fair to say Alvarez, 35, has found his weight class, although some would argue that many of his best attributes, such as head movement, were far better at middleweight.

Advertisement

“Canelo” began his career in the super lightweight division at the age of 15 in 2005 and has slowly built up to super middleweight over a 20-year run. He’s a good-sized 168-pounder, but his frame is thick for the weight class and he often looks to be the smaller man, at least in height, next to other super middleweights.

Crawford (41-0, 31 KOs) has won world titles at lightweight, super lightweight, welterweight, and most recently at super welterweight against Israil Madrimov in August 2024. It will be another two-division jump for the man who is just over two weeks out from his 38th birthday on Saturday.

The American hasn’t looked undersized next to Alvarez at faceoffs this week. He documented himself weighing 185 pounds in February, so he will still be coming down in weight for Saturday’s bout, despite being the fighter who’s moving up 14 pounds.

Alvarez, while three years younger, has boxed more than double the rounds between the two — 520 to Crawford’s 245 — and noticeably carries more wear and tear on his body. Alvarez has looked more past his prime in his past six fights, going the distance every time, compared to Crawford, who is just one fight removed from a career-best showing against Errol Spence Jr. in July 2023.

Advertisement

Alvarez’s style has changed in recent fights. He is reluctant to push the pace nowadays, and his volume has decreased, hence his lack of recent knockouts. Against William Scull this past May, Alvarez was unable to slow down Scull’s movement or pin him down for sustained periods. Crawford’s elite movement will undoubtedly be a major part of his game plan.

Alvarez’s power, however, is still a major threat. He scored knockdowns against John Ryder, Jermell Charlo, Jaime Munguia and Edgar Berlanga in four consecutive title defenses, even while going the distance every time. Alvarez’s power — and his opponents’ respect for it — forces them to fight cautiously, which is to Alvarez’s advantage. Bivol, on the other hand, consistently backed Alvarez up, pushed the pace and threw in combinations, which Alvarez didn’t have an answer for.

Advertisement

Crawford is unlike any other recent Alvarez opponent. He is an elite-level fighter in his own right, and arguably the best Alvarez has faced since Floyd Mayweather in 2013.

The key for Crawford is to start fast and get into a rhythm early. Alvarez is a notoriously slow starter. If this is a long-range pure boxing match, it’s very hard to pick against “Bud.” Alvarez will need to roll back the years and make this into a war to overcome the supreme skills of Crawford.

Size matters. It’s a steep task to expect Crawford to overcome a 14-pound weight jump in one fight. Even though the size gap may not look overly decisive at faceoffs, Alvarez is experienced at the weight class, while Crawford has never fought a man as heavy and as powerful.

Even still, I edge Crawford to pull off the upset over “Canelo” and establish himself as one of the best fighters in boxing history.

Advertisement

Pick: Crawford

Super welterweight: Callum Walsh (-275) vs. Fernando Vargas Jr. (+230), 10 rounds

It’s a battle of unbeaten prospects in the Alvarez vs. Crawford co-feature as Dana White-backed Irishman Callum Walsh (14-0, 11 KOs) is pitted against Fernando Vargas Jr. (17-0, 15 KOs), the son of the legendary three-division champion Fernando Vargas.

Vargas Jr., unlike most second-generation boxers, hasn’t been built under the bright lights. He’s fought the majority of his career on smaller shows and steps onto the big stage for the first time Saturday.

Walsh has made a name for himself in the U.S. by knocking out overmatched foes on UFC Fight Pass cards.

Advertisement

Neither man has put a foot wrong in their careers thus far, but this will be the first time either one is fighting at the fringes of the world level.

Walsh was severely tested in his 2023 bout with Ismael Villarreal, where he was rocked multiple times and had to rise off the floor in the final round to win a close decision. Vargas Jr. has never gone past six rounds and never had to come through this level of adversity, although his fights have been at a lower level.

Walsh is a southpaw pressure fighter whose aggression and power mean many of his fights don’t make it past the early rounds. Vargas is more of a knockout artist, however we have yet to see Vargas face a Villarreal-type opponent to see how he does when somebody is fighting back.

The Irishman is more battle-hardened and a more refined boxer, so he enters the matchup with the edge. Vargas is a live threat with his power, but if Walsh doesn’t stay in front of him for too long and instead uses his superior skills to control the pace, I expect him to win a decision.

Advertisement

Pick: Walsh

Super middleweight: Christian Mbilli (-190) vs. Lester Martinez (+150), 12 rounds

Christian Mbilli (29-0, 24 KOs) vs. Lester Martinez (19-0, 16 KOs) is being tipped by many to be the show-stealer on Saturday.

With two action fighters who are big punchers and have defensive vulnerabilities, this matchup promises to deliver fireworks for as long as it lasts.

Mbilli, a Cameroonian-Frenchman now based in Canada, is the WBC interim champion and mandatory challenger (theoretically) to Saturday’s main-event winner. Victories over Carlos Gongora and Sergiy Derevyanchenko have established Mbilli as one of the top contenders at super middleweight.

Advertisement

Martinez, a Guatemalan who has been building on smaller ProBoxTV shows, also has a win over Gongora. While both men were extended the 10-round distance, Mbilli had a much tougher time getting his hand raised. Mbilli was twice rocked by uppercuts from Gongora and only narrowly avoided hitting the deck.

Mbilli will likely be the one forcing the pace in the early rounds Saturday and investing heavily in body work, in the hope that if the fight reaches the later rounds, he’ll have more in the gas tank. I expect Martinez, who is the better pure boxer of the two, to keep Mbilli honest in the early rounds with counterpunches rather than trying to match his volume.

Mbilli will have to be cautious throughout the fight, as Martinez has the power and explosiveness — more so than any other Mbilli opponent — to change the trajectory of the fight with a single punch. I expect Mbilli to slow down in the second half of the fight and for Martinez to start to take over.

If Martinez can get through the early frames without taking too much damage and winning the odd round, I expect him to come on strong late and win a close decision. If he can put a dent in Mbilli, I can also see him forcing a stoppage, as Mbilli can be hit and be hurt in fights, particularly in their late stages. Mbilli’s best chance will be to dominate the first half and leave Martinez in a position where he can no longer come back to win the fight. It’s a real pick’em, but I’m edging Martinez.

Advertisement

Pick: Martinez

Super featherweight: Mohammed Alakel (-1800) vs. Travis Crawford (+720), 10 rounds

Saudi prospect Mohammed Alakel (5-0, 1 KO) steps up to face Travis Kent Crawford (7-4, 2 KOs) in the 10-round main-card opener.

Alakel, 21, who trained with Joe Gallagher for his first few fights, has held his latest training camp in Big Bear Lake, California, under the tutelage of former Gennady Golovkin coach Abel Sanchez.

Alakel had very limited amateur experience and has been a pro for less than a year. Jumping into a 10-round fight probably isn’t the wisest of choices for Alakel, who is very much a work in progress.

Advertisement

Crawford — not related to Terence Crawford in the main event — has also never fought over the 10-round distance. He lost his first two and last two fights, but enjoyed a seven-bout win streak between that, which was capped off by a split decision triumph over Alex Ramos in April 2024 to claim three regional belts.

Alakel won the majority of his early contests with his sharp, long jab, but in recent fights he has started to add combinations and power punches behind it, looking impressive in his first-round TKO win over Yumnam Santosh last month.

Crawford, 22, will have the slower hands on the night and present Alakel with a number of defensive openings. The advantage he brings to this fight is experience. Crawford has been in a few closely contested bouts already at the regional level, while Alakel has seen off five journeyman.

I expect Alakel to be tested but ultimately be too fast and skilled for Crawford.

Advertisement

Pick: Alakel

Undercard quick picks

• Middleweight: Serhii Bohachuk (-450) def. Brandon Adams (+350)

• Heavyweight: Jermaine Franklin Jr. (+100) def. Ivan Dychko (-118)

• Super featherweight: Reito Tsutsumi (-5000) def. Javier Martinez (+1400)

• Super lightweight: Sultan Almohamed (N/A) def. Martin Caraballo (N/A)

• Light heavyweight: Raiko Santana (+250) def. Steven Nelson (-300)

• Super middleweight: Marco Verde (N/A) def. Marcos Osorio-Betancourt (N/A)