It’s fight week in Las Vegas and the excitement is building for one of the most anticipated contests of the year: Saul “Canelo” Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford for all of the marbles at super middleweight.
You’d be forgiven for not foreseeing this bout materialize this time last year. All signs were pointing toward David Benavidez as Alvarez’s next opponent, until Turki Alalshikh opened up his now infamous — and seemingly limitless — checkbook.
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Crawford (41-0, 31 KOs) hasn’t officially weighed more than 154 pounds for a professional contest throughout his 17 years and 41 fights in the paid ranks, but is leaping up to Alvarez’s (63-2-2, 39 KOs) natural home of 168 pounds with plans to grab another slice of history.
A win for Crawford would see “Bud” become the first undisputed champion in three different weight classes, cementing his spot firmly in boxing’s history books.
But, “Canelo” is unbeaten as a super middleweight. And with 19 previous bouts in front of a Mexican-heavy Las Vegas crowd, he believes he holds a majority of the cards inside Allegiant Stadium.
Let’s drill down further into Saturday night’s keys to victory for both fighters.
Canelo Alvarez head-hunts William Scull during their championship match this past May.
(FAYEZ NURELDINE via Getty Images)
Saul “Canelo” Alvarez
Size
As the natural super middleweight, “Canelo” will outweigh and outsize Crawford considerably by the time the first bell tolls, but it’s more than just numbers on a scale.
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“Canelo” is unbeaten at 168 pounds, comfortable and experienced at the weight, and won’t enter the ring with any question marks over his head regarding conditioning and gas tank.
At his best, “Canelo” attacks with a wicked and relentless high-guard press, which can look pretty one-dimensional. It’s just usually this one dimension of offense tends to be enough to win a fight.
When these two square off in the head-to-heads, the size disparity may not be that obvious, but it will play a big part in influencing the next two categories.
Power
Alvarez may not have that one-punch knockout in his locker anymore, but he always hits hard and, importantly, he does with accuracy.
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His left hook is the money shot that writes headlines, but his overhand right is just as dangerous, and with a couple of weight classes of extra venom behind these attacks, Alvarez’s power may make bigger dents in Crawford than they have in previous opponents that have taken the Mexican the distance.
“Canelo” is extremely economical in his attacks and is a master at setting traps and striking with counters — any Crawford complacency will be punished by an on-song “Canelo.” Despite not registering a stoppage in his last six wins, Alvarez has dropped and hurt four of those opponents.
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Chin
Across 67 bouts, 520 rounds and 20 years of activity, you can count on one hand the number of times “Canelo” has looked like he could get hurt.
He is yet to touch the canvas as a professional, and his granite chin has a big part to play in the robust nature in which he is able to fight.
Of course, every fighter is human and indestructible whiskers rarely last an entire career, but the Mexican will be banking on walking through whatever the smaller-framed Crawford is able to connect on the chin of the champion.
If “Canelo” is comfortable in taking Crawford’s power early in the fight, it could enable the Mexican to take more risks in offense down the stretch in a contest where he could struggle to bank the earlier rounds.
Terence Crawford pummels Errol Spence Jr. during their 2023 welterweight championship bout.
(Al Bello via Getty Images)
Terence “Bud” Crawford
Skill
Crawford’s ability to adjust to his opponents in fights has enabled him to have success in a multitude of weight classes against a number of different styles.
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His switch-hitting can bamboozle the best of opponents, and his natural talent and technique could go beyond anything “Canelo” has seen in a long while.
Lateral movement, flurries of punches and springing in and out of the pocket against an aggressive “Canelo” will be pivotal to Crawford’s success in this contest, and he has shown this ability time and time again en route to this toughest assignment of his career.
If he is able to read the rhythm of Alvarez, attacks to the body — something that a majority of fighters, barring Gennadiy Golovkin, have neglected against the Mexican — could pay big dividends down the stretch.
Dmitry Bivol set the template on how to beat “Canelo” with front-footed aggression, but Crawford will have to do that without natural size on his side.
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Reach
Even though Crawford will be giving considerable size away to “Canelo,” he’ll enjoy an edge in height and, more importantly, reach.
Those four inches — used effectively — should allow Crawford to spring in and out of range of Alvarez’s counters, but only if he is able to dominate with his jab, much like Bivol was.
“Bud” has proven himself an incredibly intelligent fighter, and although fights are rarely played out on paper, his length could prove the perfect antidote to Alvarez’s natural advantages.
Pace
Crawford will need to set the pace and push “Canelo” onto his back foot. It’s easier said than done, but the Mexican is famous for starting slowly, so it will be down to “Bud” to initiate the early stages and bank the opening rounds.
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Alvarez’s opponents are often guilty of allowing him time to recover when he dictates pauses in rounds, reluctant to follow him into the corner for fear of getting countered off the ropes, but a high-volume press from Crawford will ask questions of the champion that few have posed.
Constant punching, jabbing and feints — even if inaccurate — will keep Alvarez’s mind occupied and delay him fighting dangerously on instinct.
“Canelo” is used to getting things his own way in Vegas, so it’s down to Crawford to flip the narrative and fight like the unbeaten two-weight undisputed champion he is.
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