A team doesn’t fall this short of expectations without at least a few players failing to meet their expected level of production. The Orioles are no exception. Gunnar Henderson has been in the spotlight all season for his lack of superstar production, but this rings true for several players. Colton Cowser has failed to make an impact on the offensive side of the ball. Andrew Kittredge has disappointed as a high-leverage reliever. Carlos Narvaez has not resembled a major league hitter since coming over in the Rutschman deal.
At the same time, a few players have punched above their weight class. Blaze Alexander emerged as one of Baltimore’s best hitters. Christian Encarnacion-Strand took full advantage when given an opportunity. Brandon Young grabbed onto a rotation spot and never let go.
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The next three guys do not fit into either category. Dylan Beavers, Jackson Holliday, and Coby Mayo all have the potential to be above-average hitters but have yet to carve out consistent everyday roles with the team.
Mayo has made headlines as a lefty masher. His superhuman numbers against left-handers have elevated his OPS+ to an above-average 110. At the same time, only five of his 21 home runs have come against right-handed pitching. His .323/.384/.752 line against southpaws is certainly something to marvel at, but his struggles against righties remain a mystery. Mayo did not exhibit anything close to these platoon splits in the minors, and he still feels like a guy that can figure it out with time. The numbers against lefties are destined to decrease, but a 110 OPS+ feels repeatable with heavy power numbers.
The Orioles made the decision to roll with Mayo out of necessity when Jordan Westburg went down. The team could have deployed a glove-first option at the hot corner, but the team gave Mayo an extended window to work out his defensive kinks. Things were not pretty early in the year, but Mayo rewarded the Orioles for sticking with him early in the season.
Mayo’s defense was a story all spring, but all three of these guys have significant room to improve. Beavers entered last night’s game with a -7 Fielding Run Value. Holliday started the game at -4. Mayo actually checked in as the “best” of the three with only a -2 FRV.
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Holliday missed the beginning of the season after having his hamate bone removed. Players often struggle to regain their power after the procedure, and Holliday followed suit. He’s tallied only seven home runs over 92 games and has struggled to get going outside of a red-hot July.
The Orioles believed in Beavers enough to hold him back last summer until the deadline for PPI players had passed. Did the organization really view Beavers as a candidate for rookie of the year? The 25-year-old has failed to meet that expectation, but he continues to show an ability to get on base. Beavers currently holds a 101 OPS+ despite a rocky season that saw him miss well over a month with an oblique strain.
Mayo received an early opportunity and eventually clawed his way into the heart of the order. Holliday struggled before catching fire in July. An injury to Blaze Alexander cemented Holliday as an everyday player and eventually created an opportunity at the top of the lineup. Beavers fell back into a timeshare with a mediocre outfield, but he remains a long term option.
All three of these guys have room to grow on defense, and they’ve all been inconsistent at the plate, but the thing that really brings them together is a need for daily reps. With this season all but lost, will these guys be guaranteed the opportunity in 2027?
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The early years of the Mike Elias tenure were brutal, but at least fans knew what to expect. Developing talent was the most strategically relevant goal, and the team could afford to give players an extended leash. The Orioles have tried (and failed) to put together a winning team over the last two seasons, and they will enter the offseason looking to win in 2027. How will they value this trio moving forward?
The team isn’t going to cut bait with any of these guys. Holliday is a former number one pick that should benefit from a healthy offseason and another year of quality instruction from his father. Mayo has all the power in the world, but will the team look to unlock his bat against righties? Does the team view Beavers as a starter or an extra outfielder?
The product on the field has been bleak over the last week. Pete Alonso has been great, but some of these guys have played brutal baseball. Beavers, Holliday and Mayo haven’t been the problem, but they’ll finish this season with a lot of meat left on the bone. Can the Orioles find a way to unlock that potential moving forward?
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