Having seen a couple weeks of Spring Training, it is clear who the Washington Nationals best pitcher is. That would be Cade Cavalli, who is trending towards being Nats Opening Day starter. He dominated in his four innings against the Astros, and looks poised to have a breakout year now that he is finally fully healthy.
The fact a pitcher with 11 career starts is my pick to be the Nats Opening Day starter tells you a lot about where the team is right now. However, it is also a credit to how nasty Cavalli is. His fastball is sitting at 97 MPH and his breaking balls look sharp. The stuff models liked what Cavalli was throwing yesterday.
One thing this model did not pick up was that Cavalli threw two separate breaking balls. Baseball Savant listed nine of his breaking balls as sweepers. That is a new pitch for Cavalli, who needed to find a way to get right handed hitters out. He held lefties to a .221 average last year, but right handers hit a crazy .381 against him.
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Cavalli did not have any pitch that moved away from righties last year, which is why he added the sweeper. Last year, his mix was predictable against right handers and they crushed him. The sweeper was actually the pitch he threw the most against right handed hitters yesterday, tossing it 41% of the time.
According to Grant Paulsen, that is not the only tweak the new regime has made with Cavalli. He is also experimenting with something called a one-seam sinker. It is a different sinker grip that uses seam orientation to get more movement. Teams are learning more about seam effects these days, and the Nats are now a part of that movement. Here is a cool video of an MLB pitcher being taught this one-seam sinker.
With Cavalli’s raw stuff, if one of these new pitches really catches on, he has front of the rotation upside. The other thing Cavalli will have to do to reach his upside is stay healthy. His Tommy John recovery was turbulent to say the least. He basically missed all of 2023 and 2024 due to the recovery process. Cavalli came back last year and threw 122.2 innings between the majors and the minors.
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However, this is the year where he can really be unleashed. Last year was all about showing he still had the stuff that made him a top prospect. Now it is time for him to focus on dominating and leading a young rotation.
If you designed a pitcher in a lab, they would come out with a lot of the traits Cade Cavalli has. He throws very hard, has a feel for spin, can throw a good changeup and has a sturdy 6’4 225 pound frame. While he has not been an innings eater in his career, he just looks like a guy who could throw 200 frames.
Interestingly, Cavalli is on a five day schedule that would line him up to start on Opening Day. With his performance yesterday, where he went four innings without allowing an earned run and struck out 6, there should be no doubt who the Nats Opening Day starter is.
He may be inexperienced, but Cade Cavalli is easily the most talented pitcher in the Nats rotation. I still believe he has number two starter upside and can show that this season. His raw stuff is even better than the now departed MacKenzie Gore, and I would not be shocked if Cavalli out produces Gore this year. Cavalli’s combination of velocity, a special curveball and a new look sweeper gives him a high ceiling.
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I would project Cavalli to toss about 165 innings this year and post an ERA around 3.60. Given his lack of experience, this is ambitious, but I really think his stuff plays. He is the guy who I think will benefit the most from the new pitching coaches because he has the most raw tools.
Out of anyone on the team, I think I am most excited to see Cavalli. This is a real breakout candidate. While he is already 27 years old, he is still brimming with untapped potential. I think this is the year where we see him put it all together. That breakout year should start on Opening Day at Wrigley Field.
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