Buy or sell on most hyped college football teams: Will Texas, LSU, Miami and more live up to expectations?

Last season featured one of the most open national championship races we’ve seen in years. Here’s a little secret: The 2025 season is going to be even closer. No program has better than +600 odds to win the national championship, leaving the door open to runs from numerous teams. 

With that in mind, the offseason has presented plenty of time for hype to build in several corners of the college football world. Take LSU or Texas Tech, the two teams that vied for the No. 1 transfer classes of the offseason. There’s also Oklahoma and Auburn, two struggling programs who just might have the rosters to break through. And, of course, Texas and Penn State, both of whom are looking for their first national championships in decades. 

We went through and evaluated the hype around 10 of the most talked-about programs of the offseason, including teams from every major conference, and decided whether to buy or sell their stock. For some, hitting their ceiling means competing for the College Football Playoff. For others, winning it all is the bar in a pivotal 2025 campaign. 

Texas Tech

Shehan Jeyarajah: Few teams in the history of college football have invested as much into their roster as the Red Raiders — and certainly none in the Big 12. Texas Tech reeled in the No. 2 transfer class in the country, headlined by the late addition of edge rusher David Bailey. They bring back an experienced quarterback and a coaching staff that has led the program to three straight winning league records for the first time since the Southwest Conference days. With a manageable schedule, playoff contention is well within reach. Verdict: Buy

Tom Fornelli: There isn’t a team in the Big 12 I wouldn’t buy as a College Football Playoff contender because it’s a league that could be won by any member. All you have to do is look back to last season when an Arizona State team nobody believed in — coming off a 3-9 record and playing in a new league — won it. With Texas Tech, fans and analysts alike are placing too much faith in a highly ranked transfer class, as there is no longstanding evidence that transfer rankings have predictive value. You might be 2024 Indiana, but you could be 2024 Florida State. There’s a wide range of potential outcomes here, and winning the Big 12 is on that spectrum. Verdict: Buy

Oklahoma

Jeyarajah: Oklahoma’s defense was one of the best in the sport last season and should stay on that track despite losing its top two players. The offense is poised to take a step forward after adding top QB transfer John Mateer and sensational running back Jaydn Ott. That said, two factors still have me nervous. First, I remain deeply concerned about the receiver position, especially after top transfer Javonnie Gibson suffered an offseason injury that will cost him chemistry. Also, Oklahoma has perhaps the most difficult schedule in the sport. The Sooners will save Brent Venables’ job, but let’s not get out of hand. Verdict: Sell

Fornelli: This is a hard pass for me. Oklahoma has plenty of talent, but it’s now in a conference where it doesn’t have enough talent to realistically compete at the top of the league. I love the transfers of Jadyn Ott and John Mateer, but the offensive line was abysmal last season, and it’s hard to imagine it being a strength after one offseason of change. As for Mateer himself, he’s a player I enjoy because he’s a fun college quarterback, but a fun college quarterback isn’t the same thing as a quarterback capable of elevating this team to the next level. Verdict: Sell

Jeyarajah: When looking at Clemson’s long-term trajectory, there’s a pretty good case that the Tigers just had a blip where they struggled to adjust to the modern era. Coming into 2025, Clemson finally looks like Clemson again. The defensive line is the most fearsome in the sport, led by future first-round picks Peter Woods and T.J. Parker. The hallmark of great Clemson teams is their receivers, and Antonio Williams, T.J. Moore and Bryant Wesco finally give them a championship contending unit. Repeating as ACC champs should be a minimum expectation. Verdict: Buy

Fornelli: Have you looked around the ACC lately? Clemson was two or three levels below its peak capabilities last year and it still found a way to win the league and get to the College Football Playoff. This year’s team should be far better than the one we saw last year. There’s an experienced QB in Cade Klubnik and the kind of talent on the defensive line we haven’t seen since this team was winning national titles. I’m not confident the Tigers can get their third natty under Dabo Swinney this year, but I’ll be shocked if this team isn’t in the College Football Playoff. Verdict: Buy

LSU

Jeyarajah: Frankly, LSU has no choice but to deliver in 2025. They’ve got, to me, the best returning quarterback in the country in Garrett Nussmeier. They’ve got the nation’s No. 1 transfer class, including big-time contributors at some key defensive positions. This should be the best front seven the program has had in years. Barion Brown and Nic Anderson give the program some serious deep threats. Everything is coming together. Verdict: Buy

Fornelli: What if I told you I’m willing to buy the quarterback but not the team? Because that’s the situation I find myself in here. I’m a big fan of Garrett Nussmeier and believe he has a legitimate shot at being the first QB drafted next spring. What I’m not a fan of is this team’s defense or its schedule. The Tigers play road games against Clemson, Ole Miss and Alabama this year. In the end, I think Nussmeier has a great season, but the team finishes with three or four losses and the heat really turns up on Brian Kelly. Verdict: Sell

Jeyarajah: The expectations at Illinois make perfect sense after a 10-win season, especially with a roster ranking top 20 in returning production. But while I expect the Illini to start and finish a season ranked for the first time since 1990, the playoff expectations feel a little out of wack. Half of Illinois’s wins last season came by one score or fewer, including a 2-0 mark in overtime games. Receiver Pat Bryant had multiple game-winning touchdowns, and he’s gone. The schedule is pretty manageable, but it means Illinois probably needs to return the table outside of Ohio State to confidently get into the field. I just can’t get there. Verdict: Sell

Fornelli: History suggests you sell on the Illini because this program hasn’t begun and finished a season ranked since 1990, and this team will begin the 2025 season ranked. However, this program is in a much different place than it has been at any time over the last 35 years. It’s been a slow build toward sustainability that might’ve reached the unexpected heights of 10 wins last year, but those results weren’t fluky. Now that 10-win team returns nearly every key starter (the Illini rank third in Bill Connelly’s returning production rankings) and has a third-year starter at QB in Luke Altmyer. That’s not something many programs get these days! There are questions at receiver, but this team will be strong in the trenches and has a manageable schedule. Illinois may not reach the playoff, but it will be in the playoff conversation into November. That’s an incredible step forward for this program. Verdict: Buy

Jeyarajah: DJ Lagway’s run through the second half of Florida’s schedule was astonishing. They didn’t lose with him in the starting lineup, including upset wins against LSU and Ole Miss in the final games to help reach a surprising 8-5 record. And now, they’re top 20 in returning production, headlined by Lagway and running back Jadan Baugh. A big part of the question just becomes: What exactly is success? The schedule is still extremely hard, including road trips to LSU, Ole Miss and Texas A&M. Plus, Texas and Tennessee come to The Swamp, with Georgia waiting in Jacksonville. If playoff is the expectation, it’s just too much. Verdict: Sell

Fornelli: This all comes down to how much you believe in DJ Lagway at quarterback. If he lives up to his potential and goes on some “Cam Newton In 2010” run, then perhaps the Gators can compete in the SEC and for a playoff bid. That’s asking a lot of Lagway, however. The way I see it going in Gainesville is that the team will likely be more consistent in 2025 and raise its overall level of competence, but the schedule is still an absolute monster and will keep this team from achieving anything truly noteworthy. It’s hard to imagine any team in the country will face a more difficult four-game stretch than Florida’s run of at LSU, at Miami, Texas and at Texas A&M. And the Gators will still have games against Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Florida State after that! Verdict: Sell

Miami

Jeyarajah: Consider me to be a Carson Beck believer. He had his faults in 2024, but Georgia’s offensive collapse doesn’t come close to falling on his shoulders. The offensive line should also be one of the best in the sport, and Reuben Bain’s return could spearhead a truly special defense. Outside of those units, though, I’m less sold. The top skill talent is all turning over. The secondary could be all transfers. And even if Beck plays like a first-round pick, there’s no guarantee he can replicate Cam Ward. Verdict: Sell

Fornelli: Miami won’t be nearly as entertaining for casual viewers this year, but while we’re all going to miss Cam Ward, the Canes will be much more even-keeled in 2025, and it should be for the better. Carson Beck will bring stability to the offense if not wow-making Heisman plays, and a change in philosophy on defense will lead to far fewer back-breaking mistakes that allowed Miami’s opponents to stick in games last year. It’s a very talented team Mario Cristobal has built in an ACC with a lot of question marks. While Clemson’s my favorite in the ACC, Miami’s the only other team with a realistic shot at winning the league. Verdict: Buy

Texas

Jeyarajah: Frankly, I don’t know exactly how to gauge Texas stock. They’re going to be back in the College Football Playoff and likely the SEC title game with their schedule. They’re also in serious contention to be the preseason No. 1 team in the country, which feels a little generous with losses at receiver and both trenches. Arch Manning will be incredible, but there will be young QB miscues. I expect Texas to finish as a top-five team but maybe half a step behind being a true national championship contender. I guess that makes this… Verdict: Sell

Fornelli: This is an impossible question to answer because if the expectation is to win the national title, I’d prefer to sell than buy. Not because Texas won’t be good — it will be very good — but because there are so many question marks surrounding damn near every program we annually look at as a national title contender. The reasons I have faith aren’t rooted in Arch Manning but instead in Steve Sarkisian. He remains one of the best offensive minds in the sport, but he’s also become an excellent program builder. He had this team ready along the lines of scrimmage to compete in the SEC immediately, so the losses there from last year are a concern, but not a terrifying one. So, I mean, I’m selling and buying? I told you this was impossible to answer! Verdict: Both!

Penn State

Jeyarajah: Last season, Ohio State convinced numerous players to return for their final seasons of eligibility and used a roster of destiny to win the national championship. No program has replicated that strategy more in 2025 than the Nittany Lions, which convinced potential future first rounders Nick Singleton, Drew Allar and Dani Dennis-Sutton to come back after a finish in the national semis. Most important, Penn State added receivers Kyron Hudson and Trebor Pena to fix the receiver room. This should be the most complete team of the James Franklin era. Verdict: Buy

Fornelli: I will happily buy the idea that Penn State is a serious threat to win the Big Ten. It damn near did so last season. However, the reason Penn State brought everybody back this season was so that it could compete for a national title. In that aspect, I’m not nearly as enthusiastic. I love the running backs, and even without Abdul Carter, the defense will be disruptive as hell. My concern is Drew Allar. Perhaps he makes a significant leap this season as a third-year starter, but he’s consistently played poorly against elite competition. Until I see him make winning plays against top teams, I cannot buy the Nittany Lions as a title contender. Verdict: Sell

Auburn

Jeyarajah: Auburn has been a mess for multiple years at this point despite consistently being a blue-chip ratio team. The talent level should take another modest step forward, but the roster still has serious questions. The receiver room is great, but it was last year too. The defense should be a little better, but not a lot so. After two years of Payton Thorne, Jackson Arnold and Ashton Daniels are awfully underwhelming passers to bet your future on. More than anything else, I have very little faith in this staff to get the best out of anyone, especially without the safety blanket of Jarquez Hunter. Verdict: Sell

Fornelli: I’m not even sure why we’re including Auburn in this story. The Tigers have gone 22-28 the last four seasons, including 10-21 in SEC play. What’s changed this offseason that is supposed to convince me they’ll improve enough to make up the gigantic gap that exists between them and the top of the SEC? Verdict: Sell