As if I, Christopher Powers, the man writing this, the guy who can’t hit an outright to save his life, wasn’t enough of a kiss of death, it seems that the entire betting community is on Matt Fitzpatrick to win the Open Championship this week.
What could go wrong?
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Well, Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy having a week, for starters. But Fitzy has been arguably better than both this year, though the best way to prove that emphatically would be with a major victory.
The Golf Digest betting panel is comprised of Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Andy Lack of the Inside Sports Network, Ryan Noonan of Betsperts, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line.
RELATED: British Open picks 2026: 5 longshot bets I love for Royal Birkdale
Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2026 British Open:
Read The Line’s Keith Stewart joins Pat Mayo’s show to explain the keys to winning the Open Championship this week:
Watch the full show here.
British Open picks 2026: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Matt Fitzpatrick (18-1, DraftKings) — Despite the three wins and constant contention, the majors have all gone sideways on him. Things looked promising last month when he entered Saturday playing alongside Wyndham Clark in the group. After his first three holes I don’t think he was shown TV the rest of the week. That said, I’ll go to the well one more time. He’s a major winner, posted multiple excellent results at the Open in the past, and is the best combination of accuracy, long-irons, and chipping (No. 1 in scrambling from short grass in the field). Even in the midst of the best year of his career, it’ll be a lost season if he doesn’t make a single major run. Just pray it’s one of those weeks where he can make a few five-footers, not those other ones.
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Keith Stewart, PGA, Read The Line: Matt Fitzpatrick (18-1, DraftKings) — I bet Tom Kim at the John Deere and the Scottish Open, and my persistence paid off. Matt Fitzpatrick finished T-3 at the Scottish Open and showed us he’s ready for The Open. I’m almost excited he didn’t win in Scotland, because carrying the weight of winning it back-to-back is rough. The PGA Tour’s leader on approach and scrambling, what better complement of skills for Royal Birkdale? Following a T-4 at Royal Portrush last year with three top-four finishes in his last four starts, the planets are aligned for a major Sunday in England. Ryan Noonan, Content Manager 4for4/Betsperts: Viktor Hovland (34-1, DraftKings) — I’m not sure that he’s all the way back to that late summer run of 2023, but it certainly feels close. Over the past two months, Viktor Hovland has gained strokes with his ball-striking in 87.5 percent of his rounds, the best rate in the field per Betsperts Golf. When he’s gaining strokes putting, he’s cracking the TV leaderboard on Sundays. The good news is that Hovland has gained strokes on the greens in four of his five career Open Championship starts.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest managing editor: Rory McIlroy (+900, BetMGM) — Scottie got two majors last year, and this will be the year of Rory. I love that he made a scouting trip to Birkdale a few weeks ago and played elsewhere around the U.K. on links courses with his mates. He seems to be in a great frame of mind and ready for his second Open title. Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Matt Fitzpatrick (18-1, DraftKings) — I’ve bet him at all three majors this year to no avail. But I feel that the fourth time will be the charm. He is the best approach player and around-the-green player on the PGA Tour this year, which should serve him very well at Birkdale. Playing in the Scottish, and contending, can only help his chances, too. Fitzy is playing the best golf of his life, something he alluded to last week. It would be a damn shame if he doesn’t capitalize on it with major No. 2. Andy Lack, Inside Sports Network: Viktor Hovland (34-1, DraftKings) — Viktor Hovland has really come into his own over the last couple of weeks and re-emerged as one of the best players in the world. He is coming off a 13th at the Scottish Open where he gained 2.8 strokes off the tee and five strokes on approach. I have long felt that the Norwegian possesses the perfect game for an Open Championship and this is a great venue for him to record his first major.
Past results: We have our FOURTH winner of 2026, and our first stretch of back-to-back winners. Ryan Noonan and Stephen Hennessey both correctly picked Cameron Young to win the Cadillac Championship at +1250, giving Noonan his third win of 2026 (and his second in a row with the Fitzpatrick bros. at 12-1 at Zurich) and Hennessey his second, his first coming at the Farmers (Justin Rose 60-1). Noonan also nailed Nico Echavarria’s victory at the Cognizant at 60-1. Hop on the train while you can.
Listen to Golf Digest’s weekly betting podcast, “The Loop,” (below) where we interview the industry’s leading experts (and sometimes tour pros) to help you make your bets and pick your fantasy lineups. And be sure to subscribe to “The Loop” wherever you get your podcasts!
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British Open picks 2026: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Mayo: J.J. Spaun (80-1, BetMGM) — The short game and putting come and go, but the elite ball-striking persists. Birkdale demands accuracy, wedge control, and ability to navigate the wind, three things Spaun has shown in his three career wins. While no one is making Oakmont/Birkdale comps, a scan of the leader board the past two trips to that U.S. Open venue has been an exceptionally linksy leaderboard. Spaun’s ability to steer away from big trouble has been his biggest attribute over the past few years resulting in spike performances at courses with difficult-to-hit fairways. Stewart: Justin Rose (41-1, DraftKings) — It all started in 1998 at Royal Birkdale. Justin Rose made his debut on golf’s global stage and finished T-4 in The Open. Fast forward 28 years, and Rose is still a factor in major championships. Third place at The Masters, 10th at the PGA Championship, and 11th at the U.S. Open, Justin has not finished outside the top 20 in his last four major starts. Ranked in the top 10 for approach, around the green, and tee-to-green overall, the timing is perfect. A very firm Carnoustie in 2018 where Justin finished runner-up is a great comp. With all the attention on the other two English favorites, watch Rosey bloom at Birkdale. Noonan: Harris English (105-1, DraftKings) — It’s tough to hide a poor short game at an Open, but English’s is good enough to elevate him, especially when the scoring conditions are tough. He ranks fifth in this week’s field in around-the-green proximity on short grass and fifth in SG/putting when it’s difficult to gain. Last year’s runner-up at Royal Portrush has gained at least 1.5 strokes putting in his past four Open Championship starts.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Justin Rose (41-1, DraftKings) — For all the reasons Keith stated above, we are all aboard Rosey for one last stand at Birkdale. Powers, Golf Digest: J.J. Spaun (80-1, BetMGM) — I looked long and hard at the mid-to-longshot tier and hated it. But upon closer look, given how he’s played since early April, this 80-1 number on the 2025 U.S. Open winner is very attractive. While he didn’t contend at the Scottish, he did make the cut and kept it rolling with his irons. This is only his second Open appearance, but he tied for 23rd in his debut a year ago, so it’s not totally foreign to him. His three missed cuts in the majors this year doesn’t inspire confidence, but sometimes that back-against-the-wall mentality can work in a guy’s favor. He’s looked more and more like the guy who won at Oakmont after his win at Valero. Maybe he can go full-Xander and pick off two of these in a short span. Lack: Russell Henley (54-1, DraftKings) — Russell Henley has quietly developed into one of the better major players over the past few years, and he has recorded back-to-back top-10s at the Open Championship, as well as a third-place finish at the Maters this year. Royal Birkdale should seriously mitigate the value of distance this week, and place a lot of that emphasis on middle iron approach play and short game. This is a great setup for Henley.
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British Open picks 2026: Players We’re Fading
Mayo: Tommy Fleetwood (12-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — It’d be a great story if Tommy could somehow win, but at these odds, I’ll root him on by keeping my money far, far away. Stewart: Jon Rahm (+1950, DraftKings) — I have placed a huge emphasis on approach play for the Open Championship. Jon Rahm has lost significant strokes with his iron game in three of his last four starts. A lack of confidence striking the ball with his metal hooks is a red flag when you consider how many instances Rahm will also be using them off the tee and approaching the green.
Noonan: Bryson DeChambeau (56-1, DraftKings) — He’s been working on his 40-time. Let’s see how fast he can run to another missed cut. Hennessey, Golf Digest: Ludvig Aberg (28-1, BetMGM) — His prodigious distance will be nullified by a firm-and-fast Birkdale, and his weaker short game will be put to the test again. I’d bet him to miss the cut as well. Powers, Golf Digest: Baard Skogen (5000-1, DraftKings) — The World No. 745 is making his Open debut. If he wins I’ll live stream myself eating an entire jar of pickles (I despise pickles). Lack: Xander Schauffele (24-1, DraftKings) — Xander Schauffele has been great at Open Championships, but his game has been a few minor details off all season. He missed the cut badly at the Renaissance Club, a course he has won at in the past, and his approach play looked quite poor. This is a steep price to pay for a player that seems a little far away from the winner’s circle.
British Open picks 2026: Matchups
Mayo: Matt Fitzpatrick (-110) over Tommy Fleetwood (Coolbet) — My pick to win over my biggest fade. LETS GOOOOO!!!!!! Stewart: Shane Lowry (-114) over Patrick Cantlay (DraftKings) — Patrick Cantlay started the Genesis Scottish Open as a first-round leader and missed the cut. A ball-striking mess at the Renaissance Club, Cantlay has missed the cut in four of his last six major starts. Shane Lowry’s ball-striking makes him a great fit for Royal Birkdale. Take Lowry’s links experience and cash this H2H matchup on Friday night. Noonan: Collin Morikawa (+105) over Xander Schauffele (Bet365) — I love this setup for Collin Morikawa, who’s one of my outright selections this week, as well. On top of it, Xander Schauffele is scuffling right now, both with his irons and his putter. I love getting plus money here on Morikawa. Hennessey, Golf Digest: Wyndham Clark (-112) over Ludvig Aberg (FanDuel) — Clark is the hottest golfer in the world and has been super consistent since the PGA, whereas Aberg missed the cut last week and is off a strong of mediocre finishes.
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RELATED: British Open 2026: The R&A’s last-chance qualifier, explained Powers, Golf Digest: Viktor Hovland (+110) over Jon Rahm (DraftKings) — I don’t think Jon Rahm is a full fade like some have him as this week, but I’m still far higher on Viktor Hovland, who got a much-needed confidence-boosting win at the Travelers. Lack: Rickie Fowler (-120) over Kristoffer Reitan (Southpoint) — While Kristoffer Reitan has an exciting game given his power off the tee, Royal Birkdale is a strategic, technical golf course that should reward restraint and experience. Rickie Fowler has a great Open resume as is coming off a top-15 finish in his last start where he gained strokes in all four major categories. Matchup Results from the Scottish Open: Powers: 1 for 1 (T. Kim (-114) over Cauley); Mayo: 1 for 1 (English (-120) over Knapp); Lack: 1 for 1 (Chacarra (-120) over Noren); Noonan: 1 for 1 (T. Kim (-108) over Scott); Stewart: 0 for 1; Hennessey: 0 for 1 Matchup Results from the 2026 season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Powers: 17-9-0 (up 6.29 units); Stewart: 15-7-2 (up 6.22 units); Mayo: 14-11-1 (up 3.3 units); Lack: 15-10-1 (up 1.56 units); Noonan: 12-11-3 (down 0.4 units); Hennessey: 10-14-2 (down 4.98 units)
British Open picks 2026: Top 10s
Mayo: Robert MacIntyre (+360, DraftKings) — MacIntyre seemed primed for a career year following his T-4/T-2 run at the Players and the Valero Texas Open. Then, all of a sudden, he stopped being able to hit his irons. After losing strokes to the field on approach in six straight events, the Scot has turned it around over the past month, culminating with a field-leading performance in SG/approach at last week’s Scottish Open. He already has three top 10s in six Open Championship starts, and Birkdale’s firm conditions this week should set up perfectly for his extensive links experience. Stewart: Xander Schauffele (+300, BetRivers) — Almost an auto-bet during major championships, Xander Schauffele has played in 37 major championships since 2017. Schauffele has finished in the top 10 in more than half of them (19). Eight top 10s alone since 2024, take the 2024 Champion Golfer of the Year and cash come Sunday. Noonan: Justin Rose (+415, DraftKings) — Rosey finished T-3 at Augusta, T-10 at Aronimink and T-11 last month at Shinnecock Hills. He was also in the mix at The Players (T-13), Memorial (T-12), and Genesis Invitational (T-7), arguably the three biggest non-majors of the season. He’s a big-game hunter, and an Open at Royal Birkdale is about as big as it gets for Rose. Hennessey, Golf Digest: Victor Perez (+1000, FanDuel) — This is probably best as a top-20 or top-40 bet, but Victor Perez is on a sneaky great streak of golf—with a T-9 last week in Scotland and another T-9 the week before on the DP World Tour. He also had a T-2 on the DP World Tour in May. Powers, Golf Digest: Rickie Fowler (+900, BetRivers) — Fowler caught fire in April and May then cooled off considerably, but a T-15 at the John Deere has me believing again. A baked-out Birkdale might play right into his hands, as he’s a guy who doesn’t get nearly enough credit for his creativity and imagination. Just check his record at the Open – 13 of 14 cuts, two top-fives and five other top-25 finishes, including in 2017. Lack: Robert MacIntyre (+360, DraftKings) — Despite a disappointing Sunday at the Scottish Open, Robert MacIntyre remains one of the best links players in the world. He has finished top-10 in three out of his last six Opens, including a seventh-place finish at Royal Portrush last year. MacIntyre also saw some serious improvement on approach last week, posting his best iron week of the season.
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Top-10 results from the Scottish Open: Mayo: 1 for 1 (Tom Kim +700); Lack: 1 for 1 (Robert MacIntyre +380); Everybody else: 0 for 1 Top-10 results from the 2026 season: Mayo: 10 for 26 (up 43.55 units); Lack: 8 for 26 (up 15.1 units); Stewart: 7 for 26 (up 6.05 units); Powers: 6 for 26 (up 3.25 units); Noonan: 5 for 26 (down 6.5 units); Hennessey: 5 for 26 (down 6.6 units) About our experts Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME. Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor and content partner with Golf Digest. Stewart is a co-founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the PGA Tour, LPGA and TGL. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter for the industry’s best betting narratives. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_. Ryan Noonan is the Betting Content Manager for 4for4 and Betsperts Golf, writing articles and hosting multiple shows under the Betsperts Group umbrella, including Move The Line and our Betsperts Golf Betting Show. Find him on Twitter: @RyNoonan. Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website devoted to the predictive quality of advanced analytics and golf course architecture. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports.
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