The final sprint to claim NCAA Tournament bids is in full swing as the countdown to Selection Sunday grows shorter with teams around the country using conference tournaments as a final opportunity to strut their stuff. By Sunday evening, a full 68-team Big Dance bracket will be available, but there’s much to be sorted out before then.
Among the most-pressing topics of conversation over the coming days will be the fates of former national-title winning programs such as Baylor, Indiana and North Carolina that have each spent the first half of March hovering in bubble territory. The Bears and Hoosiers will each have to rest on their laurels after bowing out of their conference tournaments Thursday.
However, the No. 5 seed Tar Heels are alive and kicking in the ACC Tournament as they head toward a showdown with top-seeded Duke in the quarterfinals on Friday night. UNC is seeking an elusive second Quad 1 victory but will have to get past No. 1 seed Duke. That won’t be easy, even if Blue Devils star freshman Cooper Flagg does not play.
As we enter what’s sure to be a wild weekend of college basketball action, here’s a true/false breakdown of some pressing bracketology questions:
North Carolina needs to beat Duke to make Big Dance
Answer: False
Virginia was ranked just 63rd at KenPom after the ACC Tournament last season and was No. 54 in the NET but still made the field as the last at-large team. North Carolina was No. 35 in KenPom and No. 36 in the NET as of Thursday. While the Tar Heels would have just one Quad 1 victory after another loss to Duke, a 20-1 mark across Quads 2-4 might make them palatable enough to the committee.
Virginia should not have been an NCAA Tournament team last season, evidenced by the fact that it got beat 67-42 by Colorado State in the First Four. But if the the selection committee was willing to admit the Cavaliers in a year where there were multiple bid thieves, then it’s absolutely plausible that UNC will get in this season, even with just one Quad 1 win (UVA had just two). Should it happen? Highly debatable. But could it? Absolutely. There will likely be fewer bid thieves this season, and North Carolina looks good enough in some advanced analytics to provide the committee with cover if its bullish on including the Heels.
Texas deserves an at-large berth, no matter what
Answer: False
“No matter what” is a bridge too far when discussing a team that would be shy of 20 total victories on Selection Sunday. If Texas doesn’t beat Tennessee in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament, it will be 19-15. For a team that played the nation’s 349th ranked non conference schedule, that’s a problem. A win over Saint Joseph’s is Texas’ best out-of-league win, and a 6-12 regular season mark in the SEC is an eyesore regardless of how good the league was this season.
While consecutive Quad 1 wins over Vanderbilt and Texas A&M this week have given Texas life, it’s far from a done deal. Bid thieves and good performances from other bubble teams to close the week would make the Longhorns incredibly uncomfortable heading into the selection show, absent at least one more victory.
Bracketology: Cooper Flagg injury leaves questions as Duke, North Carolina square off in ACC Tournament
Jerry Palm
Sean Miller is sweating Selection Sunday
Answer: True
Xavier entered a soul-crushing 89-87 loss to Marquette in the Big East Tournament quarterfinals as one of the “Last Four in” the projected field, according to CBS Sports Bracketology Expert Jerry Palm. A Quad 1 loss to the Golden Eagles isn’t particularly harmful from a resume perspective, but it was a crushing defeat nonetheless. A win would likely have been enough to solidify the Musketeers’ standing in the field, and the manner of defeat was excruciating. Xavier led by 14 in the second half before getting torched defensively down the stretch.
A Jan. 18 road victory over the Golden Eagles may technically be Xavier’s lone Quad 1 victory on Selection Sunday, but this team also beat UConn and Creighton, who are high-quality Big East opponents and locks to make the NCAA Tournament. In a theoretical world where the final at-large bid comes down to Xavier or North Carolina, the Musketeers should get the nod by virtue of their three wins over at-large NCAA Tournament teams. By contrast, the Tar Heels have just one. It was a neutral-site win over UCLA on Dec. 21. But Xavier coach Sean Miller will absolutely be sweating, especially if someone like North Texas emerges as a bid thief out of the AAC.
If Duke wins ACC without Flagg, it should be No. 1 overall seed
Answer: False
Auburn should be the No. 1 overall seed for the NCAA Tournament, regardless of what happens over the next couple days. Even if the Tigers lose in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament against Ole Miss, they will still be 15-5 in Quad 1 on Selection Sunday and 12-0 across all other games. The Tigers played a nonconference schedule that was even tougher than Duke’s and went unbeaten against it. Bruce Pearl’s club then emerged as outright champions of perhaps the toughest conference in college basketball history. Duke has been fantastic and is almost assuredly deserving of a No. 1 seed, but there’s no way to contort Flagg’s ankle injury into a positive development of any sort.
The Mountain West is a three-bid league
Answer: True
In a doomsday scenario, Boise State’s 62-52 win over San Diego State in the Mountain West Tournament on Thursday knocked the Aztecs out of the bracket but didn’t do enough to get the Broncos in. However, there’s also a best-case scenario in which the Broncos propelled themselves into the field without knocking SDSU out. Oh, and don’t forget about a potential bid thief such as No. 2 seed Colorado State, which could theoretically steal a bid from a conference companion. When it’s all said and done, it’d be surprising if there weren’t at least three Mountain West teams in the field come Sunday.
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