The bubble is starting to shrink as the college basketball season winds down. Tuesday morning, Wake Forest fell off of it in the wrong direction following a 93-60 loss at Duke on Monday night.
There are 10 bubble games on Tuesday and each of them features a bubble team on the road. The only bubble team at home is Ohio State, which hosts fellow bubbler Nebraska. I expect that we will have more clarity, if not a shorter bubble, after Tuesday night’s action.
Also, three conference tournaments get underway as the Horizon, Patriot and Sun Belt have opening-round will feature opening-round games.
It does not look like we have the possibility of a bid stealer among the usual single-bid conferences. Maybe the A-10 could have one if VCU makes a deep run in the conference tournament and does not take too bad of a loss. That is pretty much it for this season, which is pretty unusual. We don’t always have a bid-stealer, but usually you can see some possibilities. Last season, there were six. so maybe we’re due for some calm.
Check out Palm’s latest bracket, full field of 68 and Bubble Watch at the Bracketology hub
All times ET
Tuesday’s ‘double bubble’ game
Nebraska at Ohio State
9 p.m. | Peacock
The Cornhuskers are hanging on by a thread after losing four of their last five, most recently at home to Minnesota. They are about out of chances. Tonight they hit the road to face a team just as desperate as they are.
That is because Ohio State is only 16-13 overall, a record that is never rewarded. The Buckeyes have a dangerous road trip to Indiana after this, which will be important to both teams. They will likely need to win a game or two in the Big Ten Tournament no matter how they finish the regular season.
Bubble teams in action Tuesday
Georgia
at South Carolina, 6 p.m. | SEC Network, fubo (Try for free)
South Carolina is trying to play the SEC bubble teams into oblivion. The Gamecocks have won two straight home games against Texas and Arkansas, dealing significant blows to those teams’ NCAA Tournament hopes. They go for the hat trick tonight against Georgia, which has won two in a row after a four-game skid. Florida is among the Bulldogs’ recent victims.
North Carolina
at Virginia Tech, 7 p.m. | ESPNU, fubo (Try for free)
The Tar Heels are biding their time until they host Duke on Saturday. Rinse and repeat. This is the sixth straight game where they can only hurt themselves.
VCU
at Duquesne, 7 p.m. | CBS Sports Network (Channel finder)
VCU has nice metrics but not much in the quality win department. The Rams’ best and only Quad 1 win came at Dayton. Four of their five losses have been to non-tournament teams, including a Quad 4 eyesore to Seton Hall. I’m not sure who VCU can afford to lose to, but it certainly is not Duquesne.
Baylor
at TCU, 8 p.m. | ESPN+
Baylor got back on the right foot with a win over Oklahoma State on Saturday. This is another tough game on the road where the loss could really hurt. TCU isn’t terrible — this is a Quad 1 game — but the Bears need to beat non-contenders wherever they play them.
West Virginia
at Utah, 9 p.m. | ESPN+
West Virginia has an interesting resume with five Quad 1 wins, three of which are to teams in the top half of the bracket. The Mountaineers also have losses to Pitt, TCU, Kansas State and Arizona State. They are the model of inconsistency. Utah is playing out the string and doing so with an interim coach. The Utes won their first game with Josh Ellert at the helm, so they aren’t rolling over.
Boise State
at Air Force, 9 p.m.
Boise State has won eight out of nine to get back into the hunt. The Broncos are done with other Mountain West contenders for now, and a loss to Air Force would be a disaster. The last place Falcons are No. 317 in the NET.
Indiana
at Oregon, 9 p.m. | FS1, fubo (Try for free)
Indiana has won three in a row since a home loss to UCLA and are back in the hunt for a spot in the bracket. This is a chance at a quality win away from home. The Hoosiers have already won at Michigan State, but you cannot have too many good road wins.
Arkansas
at Vanderbilt, 10 p.m. | SEC Network, fubo (Try for free)
Arkansas is barely hanging on and now travels to Vanderbilt, which has big wins on its home floor this season. Most recently, the Commodores knocked off Missouri to get off the bubble. The Razorbacks are coming off a disastrous performance at South Carolina. They need a much better effort tonight or we could soon be talking about their tournament hopes in the past tense.
San Diego State
at UNLV, 11 p.m. | CBS Sports Network (Channel finder)
The Aztecs have been coming on strong, having won nine of their last 11 games. Among those wins are victories over Boise State and New Mexico. They also have non-conference wins over 1-seed Houston and Creighton. San Diego State lost the first matchup with the Runnin’ Rebels at home, so they need to avoid the sweep.
Teams near the cut line
NCAA Tournament locks
Locks based on résumé: 27 | At-large bids in play: 14 | Automatic bids secured: 0 of 31
| ACC (3) | Duke, Clemson, Louisville |
| Big East (2) | Marquette, St. John’s |
| Big 12 (5) | Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech |
| Big Ten (8) | Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Oregon, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin, Illinois |
| SEC (9) | Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas A&M |
Note – all references to NCAA Tournament selection records and trends based on NET rankings excludes the 2021 tournament. Due to shortened schedules and a relatively small number of nonconference games, those rankings are not reliable enough to be considered.
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