Bowl projections: Preseason outlook for College Football Playoff field as SEC leads way in projected bracket

The race to the 2025 College Football Playoff — this time with a straight-seeding model — begins now in what could be the final year of the 12-team bracket. As conversations continue on a potential 14-, 16- or revised 12-team format moving forward, it’s time to reveal our preseason bowl projections and predicted playoff pairings ahead of the season.

There’s still five auto qualifiers for conference champions within the Power Four and the highest-ranked Group of Six champ. However, the top four seeds in the playoff with opening-round byes are no longer required to be a league champion as the selection committee moves to power ranking model of sorts.

We’ll update our bowl projections weekly throughout the campaign with an explainer on any changes to playoff pairings and any intel we’re hearing from bowl sources on preferred teams or matchups as the season matures. Most bowls have specific contractual tie-ins, but agreements and affiliations can change based on ESPN’s designations when the sorting is finalized at season’s end based on eligible teams.

Let’s look ahead at how things may shake out as the 2025 college football season rapidly approaches. 

College Football Playoff

Quarterfinals

First round

Don’t see your team? Check out Brad Crawford’s complete preseason bowl projections.

Projected College Football Playoff field breakdown

No. 1 Texas (SEC champion): Ranked No. 1 in the preseason AP Top 25 for the first time in program history, the Longhorns are under tremendous pressure. Seizing the top seed in the playoff would mean Arch Manning and Texas won the landmine-filled SEC and Steve Sarkisian would have his best team yet on the Forty Acres. The opener at Ohio State could go a long way in earning that top seed if Texas is victorious against the defending national champions.

No. 2 Penn State (Big Ten champion): Can the Nittany Lions accomplish the season most in and around Happy Valley believe Penn State will carry this fall? That’s the expectation for James Franklin, who brings back the bulk of a squad that was a few plays away from playing for a national championship in 2024. The schedule’s favorable, by Big Ten standards, and anything less than double-digits wins during the regular season would be stunning.

No. 3 Clemson (ACC champion): Dabo Swinney’s right — he might have a roster capable of churning along from beginning to end without a loss this season. That’s certainly a high-end projection for a program trying to get back to the playoff with quality wins in and outside of the ACC, but with a Heisman candidate at quarterback and potentially three first-rounders on defense, the iron is hot.

No. 4 Ohio State: Despite a projected loss to Texas at home on Aug. 30, we’re taking the Buckeyes to land a first-round bye despite not winning the Big Ten this fall. Ryan Day hasn’t yet announced a starting quarterback, has two new coordinators and a revamped defense up front offers plenty of questions for an elite squad that will go as far as star wide receiver Jeremiah Smith carries them this fall.

No. 5 Notre Dame: The Fighting Irish are now eligible for a top-four seed and first-round bye with the straight-seeding model, and that’s great news for a team that should be favored in every game this fall. We’re projecting an 11-1 finish and split with Texas A&M and Miami which — at worst — should warrant praise from the selection committee.

No. 6 Alabama: Here’s the rare buy-low opportunity on the Crimson Tide after Alabama’s lackluster close to Kalen DeBoer’s first campaign. The offseason hire of Ryan Grubb as offensive coordinator is being undersold nationally, and if the Crimson Tide get explosive production out of Ty Simpson at quarterback as a result, this is a team worthy of being in the middle of the national title conversation.

No. 7 Georgia: Repeating as SEC champions will be difficult, but that’s not the ultimate prize for a program that’s captured a pair of national titles in the last four seasons. Kirby Smart remains at the top of his profession, and the only way the Bulldogs fail to reach the playoff in 2025 is if Mike Bobo’s offense flatlines with Gunner Stockton at the helm.

No. 8 Texas Tech (Big 12 champion): Where will the selection committee slot a multi-loss Big 12 champion if the Red Raiders get it done this season? That’s hard to say. It depends on who the losses come against and if Texas Tech wins in conference play hold significance. The Big 12 is the toughest conference to call in August. There’s at least five teams capable of getting to Arlington in December and winning.

No. 9 Miami: For 22 consecutive years, there’s been a preseason top 10 team from the AP poll to finish the year unranked. There’s a few pointing to the Hurricanes as that squad this fall, but not here. As our projected ACC runner-up to Clemson, Mario Cristobal will push this team into the playoff for the first time.

No. 10 Oregon: It’s hard to believe this has come to fruition, but it’s a fact — the Ducks will take the field in 2025 when a proverbial chip on their shoulder after getting squashed as the playoff field’s only unbeaten last season by Ohio State. Year 1 in the Big Ten as conference champions was a breeze for Dan Lanning … until Pasadena happened. New faces on both sides of the ball hope the encore has a better finish.

No. 11 Boise State (Group of Six champion): Navy was our initial Group of Six pick earlier this offseason, but upon closer inspection at both rosters and the schedules, the Broncos seem to be better-positioned for a potential 12-1 finish with the lone projected setback coming at Notre Dame in October. Even without Ashton Jeanty, Boise State welcomes back veteran leadership and has several favorable opportunities to look good early and down the stretch.

No. 12 LSU: With the last team in distinction this season, could the Tigers be the playoff’s first three-loss entry? After signing the nation’s top-rated transfer portal haul this offseason, expectations are grand in Baton Rouge for a team that faces a nation-leading seven teams inside the AP’s preseason top 25. Even if LSU finishes 9-3, the schedule is going to hold water and quality wins will be taken into account.