Bowl projections: Ohio State makes big move in College Football Playoff bracket; Alabama, Boise State drop out

So much for Alabama hitting cruise control during the nonconference slate prior to opening SEC play against Georgia on Sept. 27. The Crimson Tide joined Boise State as one of two teams out of our projected playoff bracket from the preseason following Saturday night’s five-alarm fire in Tallahassee, an opening-weekend stunner at Florida State that revealed major issues with one of the nation’s perceived elites.

Alabama looked closer to a seven-win team than one vying for double-digit victories in Kalen DeBoer’s second season and tumbled down our bowl projections after Week 1. Props to Mike Norvell and Florida State, who have successfully erased the stain of last fall’s 2-10 finish with a momentum-changing victory for the program.

Ohio State’s defensively dominant win over preseason No. 1 Texas was a heavyweight fight between two titans, as was LSU’s road win at Clemson that snapped the program’s five-year losing streak in openers. Brian Kelly said before the season his Tigers were in playoff-or-bust mode, and LSU has the look of a loaded team with a potential No. 1 overall pick at quarterback in 2026.

Let’s look ahead at how things may shake out after Week 1 of the 2025 college football season. 

College Football Playoff

Quarterfinals

First round

Don’t see your team? Check out Brad Crawford’s complete bowl projections.

Projected College Football Playoff field breakdown

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champion): The Buckeyes looked the part against the Longhorns, passing the eye test and nixing the assumption this team might be a step or two behind after winning the national championship thanks to considerable personnel changes and two new coordinators. However, with one of their two toughest games behind them in the win column, Ryan Day’s squad now has margin for error in the Big Ten with a sizable nonconference achievement in their back pocket that the selection committee will appreciate.

No. 2 LSU (SEC champion): Slotted to be one of four SEC playoff representatives in the preseason, The Tigers have now moved into a top-four slot as our predicted league champion following their head-turning showing at Clemson. Blake Baker’s portal-laden defense shut down Cade Klubnik and a high-powered Clemson offense, while Garrett Nussmeier made several jaw-dropping throws in the second half to lead LSU to a top-five road win. 

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Both LSU and Ohio State will benefit from Week 1 wins with the selection committee’s updated scheduling metric — tilted record strength.

No. 3 Miami Welcome to the top four, Hurricanes. Mario Cristobal has a signature win to open the 2025 campaign following Sunday night’s triumph over Notre Dame, a marquee victory that snapped the Fighting Irish’s 10-game, regular season winning streak. Carson Beck was precise and the Hurricanes’ offensive line was ferocious, a product of a heavy investment made this offseason into this roster’s strength at the line of scrimmage. Florida, Florida State and SMU are the toughest games left on the slate for the Hurricanes, who should be eyeing double-digit wins after this decision.

No. 4 Penn State: James Franklin brought up a great point prior to Saturday’s blowout win over Nevada to open the season. There’s so much negativity surrounding the Nittany Lions’ lack of championships nationally that elite finishes seem to be overlooked in Happy Valley. He has a legitimate shot at silencing those critics in 2025 with a dominant team. We’ll know more after Penn State hosts Oregon in Week 5.

No. 5 Notre Dame: One regular-season loss won’t keep the Fighting Irish out of the playoff, especially when it came on the road against a fellow top-10 opponent. That said, the battle with Texas A&M in two weeks at home is a bounce-back opportunity that needs to go in Notre Dame’s favor. If not, the margin for error is eliminated and the Irish will spend the rest of the season straddling the bubble. 

No. 6 Georgia: It will take a few weeks before knowing who the Bulldogs really are this fall, but it’s coming. The trip to Neyland Stadium to take on Tennessee on Sept. 13 is the SEC’s first difference-making league matchup of the season. A win in Knoxville puts Georgia on the early pedestal as the reigning league champion and makes the playoff path crystal clear. Everyone was circling the contest against Alabama between the hedges in Week 5 as one to watch, but there’s a chance the Bulldogs could be double-digit favorites in that one against a deflated opponent.

No. 7 Texas: Don’t sell your stock yet on Arch Manning or the Longhorns. This defense is going to keep Texas in every game this season, and Manning has three nonconference weeks and an open date to figure it out in the passing game. The Longhorns have four remaining contests against nationally ranked competition, and if they’re able to — at worst — split those games, the selection committee will overlook what essentially amounts to a draw against the Big Ten favorite on the road.

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No. 8 Oregon: Can we sim the season and go ahead and Sharpie the Ducks as a lock in the bracket? Judging by Week 1 results, the Big Ten appears top-heavy from the outside looking in. Oregon’s trip to Penn State on Sept. 27 is the only game in which the Ducks will face an uphill climb. There’s no other worries on a soft schedule unless Indiana or USC are contenders. Barring significant injuries, Dan Lanning has to feel good about this slate and his team.

No. 9 Clemson: Dabo Swinney and the Tigers have lost four straight games to SEC competition following Saturday night’s letdown against LSU. Clemson’s offensive line struggled, there was no running game to speak of and Cade Klubnik never found a rhythm under the lights. The good news for Clemson is this team remains a heavy favorite to win the ACC and seize an auto-bid. Not taking anything away from LSU, but that opener meant more for Brian Kelly’s squad than the home team in terms of beefing its playoff resume.

No. 10 Texas Tech: Will Utah, Iowa State or Texas Tech win the Big 12? That’s a great question. This is the most wide open conference championship race in the Power Four ranks, and all three have looked good early. The Red Raiders pushed all their financial resources toward the center of the table this offseason to put together an elite roster compared to others in the conference, but there are landmines on the schedule. This one’s written in graphite for the Big 12 representative and will change week to week until there’s a clear-cut best team.

No. 11 Florida: No three-loss, non-conference champion has ever appeared in the playoff, but that could happen this season. The Gators’ schedule is absolutely loaded and getting to nine wins should be the magic number depending on where those losses come. The battle at Miami in a few weeks is crucial for two programs who will be counting up quality wins several months from now when the selection committee begins the sorting process.

No. 12 Tulane: This week’s new Group of Six rep following Boise State’s faceplant at USF, the Green Wave handled Northwestern with BYU transfer Jake Retzlaff making the most of his debut. Tulane has upcoming nonconference matchups with Duke and Ole Miss in September, so there are opportunities at schedule-strengthening victories. And winning the American — the Group of Six’s toughest conference — would go a long way in getting Jon Sumrall’s program to its first playoff appearance. It should be noted that Tulane will not play USF during the regular season, but could meet the Bulls in the conference title game.