BMW Championship picks 2026: Sooner or later, Sam Burns is going to win

Fifty of the PGA Tour’s best head to St. Louis this week for the BMW Championship at Bellerive, yet it feels like 49 of them don’t have a chance to win.

That’s the way Scottie Scheffler makes it seem, at least, when he’s going well. He’s been going just fine all year, but not winning at his normal rate. If he was saving it all for the FedEx Cup Playoffs, this thing may be a wrap already.

Our experts are a little more optimistic that it’s anybody’s game, though.

The Golf Digest betting panel is comprised of Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Andy Lack of the Inside Sports Network, Ryan Noonan of Betsperts, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line.

RELATED: Here are the 50 players who qualified for the BMW Championship (and the notables who missed)

Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2026 BMW Championship:

BMW Championship picks 2026: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions

Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Cameron Young (22-1, FanDuel) — Last week went off the rails in the third round (the other three were actually quite good), but really, Young has been held back by a frigid flat stick. As he has shown us all year, that comes and goes week-to-week. He’s gained off the driver in six straight, picked up an average of four strokes on approach in his three starts before Memphis, and, don’t forget, the guy almost won a major a month ago. On paper, Young should challenge for a win if the putter is merely average. On the odds board, he’s somehow behind Ludvig in the outright winner market.

Keith Stewart, PGA, Read The Line: Viktor Hovland (30-1, DraftKings) — If anyone can compete with Scottie Scheffler on approach, it is Viktor Hovland. A proven winner at the BMW Championship (2023) on a course that draws great comp comparisons (Olympia Fields), I’m running with an aggressive player who fell out of contention because the driver went awry in Memphis. A little more room off the tee at Bellerive, I love the bounce back for the 2023 FedEx Cup Champion. Fifth in the field on approach over the last few events and fourth in birdie-or-better percentage. Firepower and the overall trend, I’m all in.

Ryan Noonan, Content Manager 4for4/Betsperts: Sam Burns (20-1, FanDuel) — Over the past six starts (24 rounds), Burns has gained an average of 1.25 strokes per round on approach. Burns played in 20 events between last year’s Travelers Championship and this year’s PGA Championship. In those 20 starts (74 rounds), he gained an average of 0.05 strokes per round on approach. He’s taken his ball-striking to a new level, and he’s mixing every week.

Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest managing editor: Rory McIlroy (16-1, FanDuel) — These odds are out of control thanks to an extremely lackluster FedEx St. Jude. It was a surprise Rory even played Memphis, and the course fit was awful. Now he gets the perfect venue—a bomb-and-gouge he can tear apart. Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Chris Gotterup (28-1, BetMGM) — Slaying Scottie will be no easy task, but it sure feels like time for Gotterup to take that leap. After a poor performance with his irons at the Rocket Classic, the Rutgers legend bounced back in Memphis and continued to excel with driver. This course should suit his style nicely, and at seventh in the FedEx Cup standings, he’s just as live as anybody to rip off the next two and cap off what’s already been a career year. Andy Lack, Inside Sports Network: Ludvig Aberg (18-1, FanDuel) — Ludvig Aberg has had an extremely strong and consistent season, which makes his lack of victories that much more frustrating. Hopefully that changes this week, as he continues to put together strong performances that are derailed by one poor round. Aberg gained over 4.5 strokes off the tee last week and his combination of distance and accuracy should pay further dividends at Bellerive.

Past results: We have our SIXTH winner of 2026, and we just went back-to-back! Our newest panelist, Ryan Noonan, correctly selected Jackson Koivun at 36-1 to win the 3M Open, which was his fourth winner of the year. Then Steve Hennessey backed that up with a Michael Thorbjornsen pick at 41-1 to win the Rocket Classic for his third winner of the year. Let’s stay hot and finish the season strong!

Listen to Golf Digest’s weekly betting podcast, “The Loop,” (below) where we interview the industry’s leading experts (and sometimes tour pros) to help you make your bets and pick your fantasy lineups. And be sure to subscribe to “The Loop” wherever you get your podcasts!

BMW Championship picks 2026: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win

Mayo: Wyndham Clark (30-1, DraftKings) — It seemed like the summer of Wyndham Clark had ended following missed cuts at the Open and Rocket Classic. But then he surged up the leaderboard last week in Memphis, gaining across the board and now gets a course with the same fairways (zoysia), but with far thicker landing areas. That’s the Wyndham cheat code. Plus, there’s his price. Although, Clark isn’t the most consistent player results-wise, in the outright market there’s no difference between 5th and 50th. While he does have a ton of variance, he actually wins tournaments which is better than most of the losers I wager on. Stewart: Wyndham Clark (30-1, DraftKings) — There’s a ton of talk surrounding Jake Knapp this week. I will take the odds cut and gain a better chance at winning with Wyndham Clark. Why? Few have beaten the World No. 1 this year head-to-head, and Clark (CJ Cup) is one of them. I do like TPC Craig Ranch as a comp (with less scoring at BCC), and Clark’s approach play this season really sets him apart from the other driver/putter-heavy players. Fifth place at the St. Jude, if scoring and power are needed, Wyndham can win. Noonan: Justin Rose (70-1, DraftKings) — Justin Rose lapped the field on Sunday at TPC Southwind, gaining 6.31 strokes ball-striking and firing a final-round 64, the best score of the day. He’s a tough handicap because the lows are pretty low, but as we saw in last year’s playoffs, Rose is a big-game hunter.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Alex Fitzpatrick (100-1, BetMGM) — This is a bit of a dart throw since A-Fitz has cooled off recently. But the two best correlated courses for Bellerive from this summer are Quail Hollow and Muirfield Village. Fitz was the 54-hole leader at Quail Hollow and finished T-6 at the Memorial. His off-the-tee stats and approach numbers are both in the top 11 in this field over the past 30 rounds. I like this better in the without Scottie market at 80-1 at BetMGM.

Powers, Golf Digest: Sungjae Im (70-1, FanDuel) — Im has now been elite for a month now, and last week in Memphis was his best week with the irons in that stretch. He has been riding a hot putter, yes, but if it can stay hot one more week, I’ll gladly take a shot on him putting it all together at this number. Lack: Jake Knapp (40-1, FanDuel) — Jake Knapp played some great golf last week in Memphis on a course that strongly favored accurate players. Now he travels to Bellerive, which should be far more bomber-friendly, and his long iron play remains amongst the best in the field.

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BMW Championship picks 2026: Miscellaneous prop

Mayo: Gary Woodland leader after Round 1 (40-1, FanDuel) — Woodland’s got the rare distance, accuracy combo. The rest of his game’s quite spotty. Just trying to catch him in a round where everything is clicking, and he’ll surge early before falling back. He was the first-round leader last time at Bellerive too, so GOOD VIBES. Stewart: Scottie Scheffler to lead after Round 3 (+400, DraftKings) — Hey, if you can’t beat ’em… Scottie Scheffler seems poised to run through these FedEx Cup playoffs with multiple wins. The FedEx Cup trend supports it. Did you know there have been 12 multiple playoff winners in the 19 years of the FEC since they started in 2007? Less than +300 to start the week, I’ll play the 54-hole game, and grab Scheffler at a much better number on Saturday night.

Noonan: Alex Noren top-10 finish, including ties (+370, DraftKings) — Alex Noren is perhaps the most form-dependent golfer on tour. Form is certainly fickle, but Noren is riding a three-event T-20 streak with each finish better than the last. Hennessey, Golf Digest: Ludvig Aberg, first round leader (+2050, DraftKings) — I love Aberg’s course fit this week, but instead of taking him outright, which he’s proven to struggle to cash, let’s go with the better odds on him to get off to a hot start—which he’s proven is no problem for him. Powers, Golf Digest: Michael Brennan top 20 finish including ties (+115, DraftKings) — While T-42 is unimpressive in a 70-man field, it’s a lot better than I thought Brennan would do coming off the Wyndham win. The driver remained a strength, and that will be his best weapon out Bellerive. Despite having two wins, he’s still 47th in the FEC, so he’ll need a big week to get to East Lake. Lack: Gary Woodland leader after Round 1 (40-1, FanDuel) — Gary Woodland has one of the early tee times on Thursday morning. He ranks top 10 in this field in first-round scoring average, and his distance should play extremely well here.

Misc. Prop Results from the FedEx St. Jude Championship: Powers: 1 for 1 (Sam Burns 19th or better, -120); Noonan: 0 for 1; Stewart: 0 for 1; Lack: 0 for 1; Mayo: 0 for 1; Hennessey: 0 for 1

Misc. Prop Results from the 2026 season: Noonan: 1 for 2 (up 4 units); Stewart: 1 for 2 (up 3.45 units); Powers: 1 for 2 (down 0.17 units); Lack: 1 for 2 (down 0.2 units); Mayo: 0 for 2 (down 2 units); Hennessey: 0 for 2 (down 2 units)

BMW Championship picks 2026: Matchups

Mayo: Kurt Kitayama (-120) over Ryan Gerard (Coolbet) — Kitayama’s combo of carry distance and long-iron acumen give him such a huge advantage over Gerard until they get to the green, even this usual lousy putting should be enough to blow it. Stewart: Jake Knapp (+110) over Patrick Cantlay (FanDuel) — I love when the books favor a player’s career record over recent history. Patrick Cantlay is a two-time BMW winner who has not won since the second BMW victory in 2022. Cantlay can’t miss with his irons, but the off-the-tee and around-the-green game are consistent problems leading to several mediocre results. Jake Knapp started the season on fire and has recently recaptured that edge. Knapp finished T-7 in Memphis and lost strokes with the putter. Jake gained over seven strokes tee-to-green, which will serve him well on a course where he can outdrive Patrick and give us another positive odds in a head-to-head. Noonan: Sam Burns (-102) over Rory McIlroy (BetOnline) — I’m in on Sam Burns to win, plus Rory’s telling us he’s not ready, and it showed last week. Hennessey, Golf Digest: Si Woo Kim (+100) over Matt Fitzpatrick (Bet365) — They’re about the same distance-wise off the tee, but Si Woo has been incredibly more accurate. And Si Woo’s approach proximity from the crucial 175-200-yard range has been light years better than Fitzpatrick over the past 36 rounds.

Powers, Golf Digest: Viktor Hovland (-108) over Patrick Cantlay (DraftKings) — Hovland might win. Cantlay will top 20 without ever seeing a shot of his on the broadcast. Lack: Patrick Cantlay (-120) over Justin Thomas (Pinnacle) — Patrick Cantlay continues to rack up un-competitive top 20s, but that is more than Justin Thomas can say right now. Thomas lost over three strokes in both ball-striking categories last week, and I’m not sure it will get any easier for him at Bellerive. Matchup Results from the FedEx St. Jude Championship: Stewart: 1 for 1 (Kitayama (+100) over Griffin); Noonan: 1 for 1 (Henley (-105) over Thomas); Mayo: 1 for 1 (S.W. Kim (-110) over Thomas); Lack: 1 for 1 (Matsuyama (+100) over Fitzpatrick); Powers: 0 for 1; Hennessey: 0 for 1 Matchup Results from the 2026 season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Stewart: 17-9-3 (up 6.13 units); Powers: 19-12-0 (up 5.34 units); Noonan: 16-11-4 (up 3.41 units); Mayo: 16-13-2 (up 3.12 units); Lack: 17-12-2 (up 1.43 units); Hennessey: 12-16-3 (down 4.97 units)

BMW Championship picks 2026: Top 10s

Mayo: Michael Thorbjornsen (+340, FanDuel) — Long, straight, and just won on Bentgrass. Was sick all weekend at St. Jude, which could explain how he went from first-round leader to playing like me. Or he was simply bad. Since I’m betting him, I’ll choose to believe the former.

Stewart: Hideki Matsuyama (+195, FanDuel) — In his last four starts, Hideki Matsuyama has finished T-3, T-5, T-7 and T-7 in Memphis on Sunday. Bellerive CC is arguably a better course fit than most of those top 10s. St. Louis offers more room off the tee and higher priority for short game scoring. With 10 places against a limited field, I’m taking the guy who has gained an average of 7.9 SG/total over his last six starts, which date all the way back to June.

Noonan: Wyndham Clark (+230, FanDuel) — Outside of the wins, Clark has a lot of other first-page-of-the-leaderboard finishes against strong fields, including a solo third at Muirfield Village, a T-5 at TPC River Highlands, and a T-5 last week at TPC Southwind. After back-to-back poor performances from Clark, he got it together again last week in Memphis, gaining throughout the bag, including three very strong ball-striking rounds. Hennessey, Golf Digest: Gary Woodland (+400, FanDuel) — People forget Woodland played alongside Tiger Woods in the final round of the 2018 PGA at Bellerive, where Woodland finished T-6. He’s longer than ever and playing more consistent golf in 2026. Powers, Golf Digest: Min Woo Lee (+380, FanDuel) — All this driver-heavy golf course talk and nobody is biting on Mr. Spray-it-everywhere himself. Not to mention the fact he’s only a month removed from a solo second at the Scottish. Lack: Xander Schauffele (+150, FanDuel) — Xander Schauffele has looked solid with back-to-back top 10s in his last two starts. I expect Bellerive to play on the more challenging side this week, which should only further emphasize Schauffele’s great current ball-striking.

Top-10 results from the FedEx St. Jude Championship: Stewart: 1 for 1 (Hideki Matsuyama +250); Everybody else: 0 for 1 Top-10 results from the 2026 season: Mayo: 10 for 31 (up 38.55 units); Lack: 8 for 31 (up 10.1 units); Stewart: 8 for 31 (up 4.55 units); Noonan: 7 for 31 (down 1.1 units); Powers: 6 for 31 (down 1.75 units); Hennessey: 5 for 31 (down 11.6 units) About our experts Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME. Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor and content partner with Golf Digest. Stewart is a co-founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the PGA Tour, LPGA and TGL. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter for the industry’s best betting narratives. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_. Ryan Noonan is the Betting Content Manager for 4for4 and Betsperts Golf, writing articles and hosting multiple shows under the Betsperts Group umbrella, including Move The Line and our Betsperts Golf Betting Show. Find him on Twitter: @RyNoonan. Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website devoted to the predictive quality of advanced analytics and golf course architecture. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports.