The 2025 edition of the Blue-Chip Ratio was released this week, providing an annual snapshot at the teams that have been recruiting at the level necessary to win a national championship in the modern era. The BCR, founded by Bud Elliott, contends that in order to have the talent to win it all you must have more than 50% of your recruiting classes rate as blue chips (four-star or five-star prospects) over the prior four-year window.
This year there are 18 teams that meet the requirements, and so in that group you can assume that we will find our national champion for the 2025 season. But it’s extremely important to note that meeting the BCR threshold does not guarantee championship contention, or any level of success, as college football history is filled with talented teams who fall well short of expectations with their results on the field.
Blue-Chip Ratio 2025: These 18 college football teams can actually win the national championship
Bud Elliott
In the modern era, when we find individual teams or programs that are not meeting the expectations set by their roster talent there are two common culprits.
1. Coaching
2. Quarterback
Below we have highlighted six different programs whose recent record does not line up with the ratio of blue chips that have signed with the program over the last four years. Among the many threads connecting these schools is the identify of being a traditional power, or at least one that expects to recruit at a high level, and also the presence of a coaching change at some point in the last four years. However, there are many differences between the situations including the scale of disappointment, proximity to success and explanations for why the blue-chip talent hasn’t been converted to blue-chip results.
So let’s look at all six, with some context from the past and an eye on the season ahead to see if these BCR-approved teams can, in fact, contend for a title in 2025.
2025 Win Total Odds Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
64% Blue Chip
Record Last Four Seasons: 22-28
2025 Win Total: 7.5 wins (Over -164, Under +134)
The most egregious disconnect between Blue-Chip Ratio and winning percentage is at Auburn, which fired Bryan Harsin after two sub-par seasons but has yet to see Hugh Freeze win more than six games in his two years on The Plains. That sets the stage for a pressure-packed 2025 where Freeze is absolutely in “win now” mode and the addition of Jackson Arnold is expected to solve what has been a bit of a quarterback drought since the departure of Bo Nix. A resource-rich program like Auburn is always going to invest at a level that gets them above the BCR threshold, but the coach-quarterback conundrum remain a puzzle the Tigers are working to solve.
64% Blue Chip
Record Last 4 Seasons: 25-26
2025 Win Total: 7.5 wins (Over -108, Under -112)
The Gators might be the blueprint example for context when it comes to these “less with more” teams. It’s been a while since Florida has had a quarterback with the ceiling of DJ Lagway, and seeing the potential in his ascension has contributed to more patience for Billy Napier, who enters Year 4 with a 19-19 record leading the program. Those results are not in line with the talent that’s been coming into Gainesville, but they’ve been able to retain many of their stars and load up the lines of scrimmage so that Lagway, and Napier, are set up for success in 2025.
82% Blue Chip
Record Last 4 Seasons: 28-22
2025 Win Total: 7.5 wins (Over -164, Under +134)
Mike Elko has spent just one year in College Station but he inherits the frustrations of a fan base that has saw both Kevin Sumlin and Jimbo Fisher recruit at a high level but routinely finish with .500 records against conference opponents. Those frustrations were heightened, though, when last year’s team entered November with a 7-1 record in the driver’s seat for the SEC title game and proceeded to lose four of its last five games with the only win coming against New Mexico State. Texas A&M believes it has gotten the coaching part right with Elko, but he needs to feel confident they have the quarterback right with Marcel Reed taking over as the full-time starter.
64% Blue Chip
Record Last 4 Seasons: 29-25
2025 Win Total: 9.5 wins (Over +128, Under -158)
The 2024 campaign was a make-or-break season for Mario Cristobal as he delivered with double-digit wins (first time for Miami since 2017) and real ACC title contention after compiling a 12-13 record in his first two years on the job. Unfortunately, Miami did blow a 21-point lead in the regular season finale to miss the ACC Championship Game and so the familiar feeling of being unfulfilled remains heading into 2025. The intrigue for the season ahead includes whether Carson Beck can follow in Cam Ward’s footsteps as being the answer at quarterback and whether those early recruiting classes that ranked so highly have developed into title-contending upperclassmen.
57% Blue Chip
Record Last Four Seasons: 30-22
2025 Win Total: 7.5 wins (Over -162, Under +132)
The Trojans are weighed down here by a four-win season in Clay Helton’s last year on the job but also bolstered by Lincoln Riley winning 11 games in his first year on the job. USC had the quarterback position extremely dialed with Heisman Trophy winner and future No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams, but a 15-11 showing over the last two seasons is bringing attention to the evaluation and development process in Los Angeles. USC doesn’t have a blue-chip ratio in the realm of conference foes Ohio State (89%) and Oregon (78%), but it’s signed far better recruiting classes than some of the other teams in their neighborhood of the T-9 position in the Big Ten standings.
70% Blue Chip
Record Last 4 Seasons: 33-19
2025 Win Total: 6.5 wins (Over -184, Under +148)
With by far the best winning percentage of the group, Oklahoma feels like a bit of a stretch for “doing less with more.” But the pressure on Brent Venables to deliver a strong season after going 6-7 for the second time in three years points to a dissatisfaction worth noting heading into 2025. The Sooners have a talented roster, and last year fielded a strong defense that helped power big wins against Alabama and Auburn. But the quarterback position dropped off after Dillon Gabriel’s exit, and now Venables has a quick fix coming in from Washington State with offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle and quarterback John Mateer.
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