Friday night was a bit of a whirlwind for the entire league. When news broke of the Carolina Hurricanes entering talks with the Chicago Blackhawks to obtain Taylor Hall, that seemed like the biggest move the Hurricanes were going to make all season, all to bolster their forward core.
Enter the Colorado Avalanche, much to everyone’s surprise… Including the subject of the trade.
Mikko Rantanen’s name entered conversations on Friday afternoon when Frank Seravalli broke the news of a three-team trade on the table between the Hurricanes, Blackhawks, and Avalanche. The result ended in a forward ranked top 10 in the league in scoring statistics going to Carolina (half of his salary retained by Chicago) in return for Martin Necas, Jack Drury, and a pair of draft picks.
Related: Official: Avalanche Deal Mikko Rantanen to Carolina in Shocking Blockbuster Trade
Both Rantanen and Necas have expressed their surprise brought about by the move, Necas saying in a post on Instagram, “Words can’t truly describe all of my emotions. This definitely came as a shock and will take time to fully process it.”
Rantanen has expressed his shock in multiple interviews following the trade but has said in tandem that it’s all happened very quickly and it’s hard to dwell on it when a quick turnaround is followed immediately by a game and travel with his new team.
Fans haven’t had the same luxury. Yes, they love watching the games, and watching a cornerstone player to the franchise leave after ten years is bittersweet. It’s when a guy like that leaves that the questions start flowing, the main one being: why couldn’t he stay?
Many fans are also torn by the trade, trying to figure out how to hold both disappointment in Rantanen’s departure and optimism for the futures of the players the Avalanche got in return in Necas and Drury – both of whom each earned their first point in their second game played with the Avalanche.
While the answer to the title may not be one that comes immediately, a couple of factors contribute to the eventual conclusion to the question: who won the trade?
What Was the Expected Number for Rantanen’s Impending Contract?
There are many conflicting reports from NHL insiders on the exact number Rantanen and his camp were looking for during contract talks, but the consensus around when news of the trade dropped was somewhere around $14 million. The caveat? New reports arose stating that Rantanen was prepared to take a significant cut from his appraised market value to stay with the Avalanche. With that said, the theoretical contract (via Elliotte Friedman) for $11.75 million AAV/8 years was something much harder for Mikko Rantanen and his agent to swallow, especially as this same agent was able to broker Leon Draisaitl’s $14 million for the Edmonton Oilers.
The Avalanche have been in talks with Rantanen and his agent since the summer of 2024, but according to Hurricanes GM Eric Tulsky, so were they. According to Tulsky’s virtual media presser, Carolina’s front office had been sending offers to the Avalanche for Rantanen since last summer, but things picked up in the last month or two.
“We’ve been floating concepts all the way back to the summer. I would say we’ve been trading serious offers for six or eight weeks now and have been really been down to brass tacks, grinding, trying to finish it for about two weeks.”
It’s believed that Rantanen asking for more money than the front office wanted on the deal is what gave the Avalanche the green light on the trade. With the upcoming write-up of superstar Cale Makar’s contract, as his current contract is set to expire after the 2026-27 season, the front office didn’t feel like they could swing Rantanen’s reported $14 million asking price. That, and they reportedly had an internal “MacKinnon Cap,” and couldn’t justify paying him more than their best forward, seemingly unbeknownst to Mackinnon, who earns a $12.6 million AAV.
Let’s also remember the predicted increase in the cap set to go into effect next year. Via Dan Rosen on NHL.com, NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman said the league is negotiating with the NHL Player’s Association to increase the cap from its current $88 million threshold to at least $92.4 million for the 2025-26 season.
This makes conflicting reports a little more confusing. In comparison to other elite superstars around the league, an offer of $11.75 million was something that perhaps Rantanen and his camp were having difficulty getting around. Especially with raises around the league by players such as Leon Draisaitl, William Nylander, and Mitch Marner. These players signed for a considerable amount more in salary with what some may deem lesser production when compared to the higher-end talent on their respective teams. With Rantanen having finished in 6th place in Hart voting in 2022-23, there are understandable questions as to why the Avalanche front office was not able to budge from their expectations during contract negotiations.
Answers to those questions may never come, but according to Colorado’s general manager, the issues ran a little “deeper” than cap restraints.
GM Chris MacFarland Points to Forward Depth
“We’re not deep enough, and you’ve got to be deep to go four rounds,” said Avalanche GM Chris MacFarland on Saturday after the trade had been finalized.
On Martin Necas’ fit: “He’s been around the top ten in scoring this year, but his age is a big part of that. He fits in with his speed, he’s certainly a top-6 talent. Whether he has another bump in his game with the way we play, we’ll see.”
On Jack Drury’s fit: “I think Jack is hopefully that 3C we’ve been on the look for… It’s no secret this will improve our depth. Jack is a greedy, competitive guy that I think our coaches will use on the penalty kill. I think there’s another bump in his game offensively as well. It’s no secret we’ve not been the best faceoff team the last number of years and I think that’s an area where he’ll help us, for sure. Just looking for him to be a greedy, competitive guy and play a two-way game.”
Depth is an area the Avalanche have severely struggled with this year due to injury issues across the roster. With this trade, and guys slowly but surely recovering and returning to the lineup, Colorado’s bottom six is now more filled out with NHL-caliber talent. Add the talent that has emerged from Drury as the third-line center in his first three games with the team, there’s no question that the team’s forward lineup has become more deep and reliable. Coach Bednar has mentioned in the past that the third line has impressed him with their consistency and effort, and this likely doesn’t change with the addition of Drury.
Add Necas in the fold, who could potentially be “demoted” to the second line once Valeri Nichushkin returns from an injury that could keep him out at least through to the 4 Nations break. Necas’ speed and skill with handling the puck, not to mention his transition game, has seemingly made the style transition a little easier. With four points in two games in an Avalanche sweater, he seems to work well with high-end talent (and pre-existing chemistry with Drury) next to him. That talent still exists off of the top line, and Necas could prove to be an excellent puck-mover, not to mention a dangerous sniper, when moved down.
It seems like forward depth was a loud issue to the front office, and if that’s a factor in the success of this trade for the Avalanche… It’s still early, but all signs are pointing to that issue being solved.
What It All Boils Down To Is…
A long-term contract. Plain and simple.
These next couple of months are the perfect opportunity for Rantanen to showcase that he is still a top-10 player in the league while he’s not next to Nathan MacKinnon. Tie in the signing of Taylor Hall, who adds grit to Carolina’s lineup and mentioned on the What Chaos show that he’d like to settle in on one team for his final seasons, and you’ve got two acquisitions who no doubt improve a lineup moving forward. If Rantanen turns out to be a good fit and decides to settle down in Raleigh for the next 7-8 years, that’s ultimately a win for the Hurricanes.
If not… The Hurricanes will have not only lost significant draft capital (especially given their success with late draft picks) but also two incredibly talented players in Drury and Necas. This situation, if the Avalanche can hold onto these two players after next season, will play beautifully into the depth they’re trying to create across the forward roster. Add in the factor of the increasing salary cap, this leaves Colorado a lot of room to improve on their depth while also addressing other issues if not addressed by this season’s trade deadline on March 7th.
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