B1G Time: Indiana meets Oregon for early leg up in CFP race, obvious missing link limiting Penn State

Not sure anyone other than Curt Cignetti could’ve honestly said they expected Indiana vs. Oregon to be a marquee matchup when the Big Ten expanded prior to last season. But here we are. The game of the week in college football airs on CBS (streaming on Paramount+) Saturday afternoon from Autzen Stadium, where two undefeated teams collide with College Football Playoff and Big Ten title race implications on the line.

Neither program has a national title to claim, but history would suggest Oregon is far and away the stronger, more consistent power. Still, the Hoosiers are a different outfit under Cignetti — disciplined, efficient and capable of hanging in the advanced metrics with anyone.

Here’s a closer look at how Indiana and Oregon compare across some of college football’s most telling categories this season:

How does Indiana stack up against Oregon?

* Against FBS opponents only

For those keeping score, that’s a 4-2 advantage for the Ducks. But the Hoosiers clearly deserve some respect.

According to CBS Sports research, Saturday’s showdown is the first Big Ten matchup between teams entering 5–0 or better with a +30 points-per-game differential or higher since the totally unforgettable Northwestern–Chicago clash of 1904.

Cignetti has done an unbelievable job developing transfers and maximizing the roster, turning Indiana into a legitimate force despite a massive talent gap — at least from a recruiting rankings perspective. Oregon ranks fifth nationally in the 247Sports Team Talent Composite, stocked with blue-chip recruits and elite depth. Indiana, meanwhile, sits 72nd — ahead of only two other Power Four programs — which makes the Hoosiers’ rise under Cignetti all the more remarkable.

Quarterback play should take center stage, and few matchups in the country feature two passers operating at this level. Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza and Oregon’s Dante Moore have combined for 30 touchdown passes against just two interceptions this season — a staggering level of efficiency in the modern Big Ten. 

Mendoza has logged three games with at least four touchdown passes and no picks, the most in the FBS, while Moore has four outings with three or more scores and zero turnovers, also the most nationally. Together, they join 2011 Wisconsin’s Russell Wilson as the only Big Ten quarterbacks since 2000 to start 5-0 with a completion rate above 70%, at least 225 passing yards per game and one or fewer interceptions.

The stakes couldn’t be much higher for an early-October game. Saturday isn’t just about staying unbeaten — it could shape the entire Big Ten title race. Neither Indiana nor Oregon faces another currently ranked opponent the rest of the way (Indiana does visit Penn State in November, but the Nittany Lions look far less imposing after back-to-back stumbles). In other words, this might be the last real test before December.

With Ohio State once again looking like a national title contender, the Hoosiers-Ducks showdown could end up deciding one of the spots in Indianapolis. Of course, history isn’t exactly on Indiana’s side. The Hoosiers are 0-46 all-time on the road against AP top-5 teams — the most losses in college football without a win. Their last road win over a top-10 opponent came back in 1987 (at No. 9 Ohio State).

Penn State’s missing link? … Tyler Warren

It wasn’t going to matter who Penn State brought in at receiver to help Drew Allar. Nothing was going to replace the impact tight end Tyler Warren had on this offense last season. Transfers Kyron Hudson (USC), Trebor Pena (Syracuse) and Devonte Ross (Troy) have combined for 588 scrimmage yards and six touchdowns on 54 touches through five games.

In that same span last year, Warren had 323 scrimmage yards and four touchdowns on 27 touches — and even threw a touchdown pass to his stat line as well. Allar doesn’t have his security blanket anymore, and that’s undoubtedly part of the reason his production has dipped this fall.

Meanwhile Warren leads all NFL tight ends with 307 receiving yards as a rookie with the Indianapolis Colts.

Mike Locksley’s October curse on Maryland

Maryland entered this past Saturday’s game against Washington at 4-0, looking every bit the team that had dominated early in the season. But a 20-0 lead slipped away in the final 19 minutes, resulting in a 24-20 loss, dropping Mike Locksley’s October record to 7-14 during his seven-year tenure. 

That trend has made October a particularly spooky month for Maryland.

Under Locksley, Maryland is 21-5 (.808) in August and September, a win percentage that ranks tied for 12th-best in the FBS and fifth among current Big Ten teams. In October, however, the Terrapins are just 7-14 (.333), a mark that ranks 104th among current FBS teams with only Rutgers performing worse over the same span.

Locksley’s mid-season struggles extend into the later months as well, with Maryland going 5-18 (.217) in November and December regular-season games — a win rate that’s tied for ninth-worst in the FBS and last among Big Ten programs.

The pattern is unmistakable: Maryland thrives early but once October arrives, momentum vanishes.

Locksley’s record by month at Maryland (2019-present)

* Regular season games only

The obvious reason is the jump in competition. In August and September, Maryland feasted on non-Power Four opponents, going 13-1, but struggled more against Power Four teams, going 8-4 (4-4 in the Big Ten) during that stretch.

Love to see it moment of the week

Every now and then, college football serves up a moment so touching it feels scripted for a movie. CBS Sports analyst Rick Neuheisel could barely contain himself as he watched his son, UCLA interim offensive coordinator Jerry Neuheisel, orchestrate a stunning upset of No. 7 Penn State at the Rose Bowl on Saturday.

With the Bruins winless and massive underdogs, Jerry’s play-calling clicked perfectly, while quarterback Nico Iamaleava put on a career day, accounting for five touchdowns.

Some Illinois thoughts from Fighting Fornelli himself

Going with my gut

Every week Tom picks the Big Ten games against the spread based on nothing but his gut reaction to the number. No digging into numbers — just vibes, baby. He even tracks his record to embarrass himself publicly. This week, I’m giving it a shot and taking a turn at the picks. Any game not included is due to there not being a posted line at the time of publishing.

UCLA at Michigan State  — Michigan State -7.5
No. 1 Ohio State at No. 17 Illinois — Illinois +15.5
Northwestern at Penn State — Northwestern +22.5
No. 7 Indiana at No. 3 Oregon — Oregon -8.5
Nebraska at Maryland — Maryland +6.5
No. 15 Michigan at USC — USC -2.5
Iowa at Wisconsin — Iowa -3.5
Purdue at Minnesota — Purdue +7.5

Last Week: 4-2
Season: 33-26