Astros Week 4: 3 Up, 3 Down

This is the latest edition of 3 Up, 3 Down examining who is hot and who is not for the Houston Astros.

3 Up

1. Isaac Paredes – Paredes finally got his first home run of the season yesterday, and then hit his second as well. It’s been a tough start to the season for Paredes, who missed a large chunk of last season due to a torn hamstring before trying to play through it the final few weeks. The team loves his plate discipline and willingness to work counts, making pitchers throw a lot of pitches each time he comes to the plate. He has played well enough defensively at 3B, 2B, and 1B, and should be commended for his flexibility in where he plays. Those 2 HRs could be what he needed to get on a tear.

2. Christian Vazquez – Vazquez continues to produce at an incredible level despite irregular playing time. Vazquez is hitting .375 with an 1.132 OPS over 32 AB with 2 HR and 10 RBI. He has also gunned down 4 would-be base stealers. At a time where Yainer Diaz is struggling as much as he ever has (currently the worst WAR among any starting catcher in MLB), Vazquez has provided a needed lift, both offensively and defensively. Vazquez is also a respected leader in the clubhouse, and has done all he can to earn more playing time.

3. Yordan Alvarez – It would impossible to not have the MLB leader in HR not on the list, following another week in which he homered in 3 straight games. Yordan has the highest offensive WAR in MLB at 1.7, which is almost ridiculous 24 games into the season. The production of a healthy Yordan Alvarez is a big reason why the Astros thought they would contend this season without major changes, because if they had him for just 3 more games last year, its practically a lock they would have went to the postseason. Entering play yesterday, Yordan led the AL in WAR (1.6), RBI (21), XBH (17) and TB (64), and is 2nd in SLG (.790), OBP (.471) and OPS (1.261). His whole season to date has been pure fire.

3 Down

1. Lance McCullers Jr. – What started out as a season with so much hope has gone so terribly sideways. Lance took his first loss of the season 4/18 vs. St. Louis when he gave up 4 ER in 5 IP, allowing 4 H, 3 BB and a HR while striking out 4. He needed 91 pitches to get through the 5 innings, and that was an improvement on his previous start in Seattle 4/11. In that outing he only managed to go 4.1 IP, allowed 6 ER on 5 H, 2 BB and a HR while striking out 4 and took a no-decision in a game the Astros would eventually lose. Since opening the season with a beautiful 7 inning, 1 run, 9 strikeout game against Boston 3/31, that 4/18 outing was the first time Lance managed to complete the 5th inning. It has been heartbreaking to watch, and we all know how hard Lance has worked to get back on the mound, and his dedication to the Astros and the City of Houston, but it’s getting close to that time where the Astros will need to make a decision with Lance McCullers Jr. He is currently 1-1 with a 6.20 ERA in 4 starts totaling 20.1 IP. Note the velocity on this sinker to Masyn Winn, in his first start that was 93.

2. Bryan Abreu – He’s simply too good of a pitcher for this to go on forever, but hard questions need to be asked. I have a hard time with the idea that ‘mechanics’ are the sole reason for his significant drop in velocity this season on his fastball, when there is no velocity drop on his slider. Also, Abreu has no command of the strike zone this season. He currently has an 0-2 record and a 14.73 ERA and 3.00 WHIP. These are the numbers of a man who has been one of the best relievers in baseball the past 4 years, including 3 straight years of at least 100 strikeouts out of the pen. The Astros seem like they are going to continue to put him in leverage situations (even if not closing situations) despite his struggles and despite the fact that right now, he is costing them games and not closing them. I have legit concern that we will eventually find out that Abreu has some sort of injury that is impacting his ability, and the longer it goes untreated the longer it will be before a healthy Abreu can return to the mound and be an impact player for this team as he should be. There are parallels to what Abreu is experiencing and what Dodgers closer Edwin Diaz experienced prior to it being determined Diaz needed arthroscopic surgery.

3. Yainer Diaz – It’s been a tough start to the season for Yainer, who is batting a paltry .194 with an unconscionably low .491 OPS. The issue with Yainer has never been striking out, it has been poor pitch selectivity leading to him rolling over pitches for groundouts that he should be laying off of. He has already bounced into 3 double plays this season. He has had only 1 HR and 2 doubles, leaving him with a soft .269 SLG (he has a career .446 SLG). Now Yainer has had slow starts before, but the team’s struggles are magnifying his, and his seeming refusal to learn to take pitches is both frustrating and confusing – as it could get him better pitches to hit and an ability to do more damage. He has the lowest WAR of any starting catcher in MLB and is 0-10 in throwing out base stealers. In the past 3 seasons, Yainer has been above average in that dept until last year when he was below it, but its 3 straight years of declining success: (2023: 30% CS, 20.6% league avg CS; 2024: 22.9% CS, 21.8% league avg CS; 2025: 19.5% CS, 21.5% league avg CS)