If Arch Manning really is the biggest bust of all time, as some on social media would love to tell you, then Texas fans better start working on their wish list of transfer portal arms because incoming five-star quarterback recruit Dia Bell’s development has taken a major hit.
Bell announced earlier this week he is shutting things down for the rest of his senior season in order to get a minor procedure. Injuries happen, but Bell also missed the tail end of his junior year with a lower-leg extremity. That means the MVP of this summer’s Elite 11 Finals will head to Austin with just 25 varsity starts under his belt — and that’s not an ideal number.
There is no magic formula when it comes to predicting a quarterback’s success, but live game reps are hard to replace. Just look at Quinn Ewers, who started only 25 games in high school after electing to reclassify and forgo his senior season. Ewers spent his first year at Ohio State running the scout team before eventually transferring to Texas where he brought Texas to consecutive College Football Playoff semifinals but never personally matched his lofty No. 1 overall ranking.
The Talent Tracker isn’t ready to proclaim that Bell is the latest quasi-reclassification cautionary tale, but it would be a bit silly to think that Bell is going to factor into the Longhorns’ quarterback plans next year — 2026 — if Manning really can’t turn things around and that’s because Bell’s growth as a player is being stalled at a key moment.
When Michigan and Nebraska square off this upcoming weekend, it will be a meeting of two former five-star quarterbacks that were Day 1 starters in freshman Bryce Underwood and sophomore Dylan Raiola. The two are very different, but a tying thread between them is the fact that they both played a lot of football in high school with Underwood starting 54 games to Raiola’s 37.
Neither Underwood or Raiola won state championships as seniors in high school, but they both made deep runs in the playoffs. That was also the case with two of the sport’s other breakout young signal-callers in Cal’s Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (35 career starts) and Maryland’s Malik Washington (36 career starts).
Now, it’s certainly not a requirement for quarterbacks to play meaningful games in the months leading up to their college enrollment, but it’s hard to replicate high-pressure situations where one has to be the catalyst in a training camp or spring practice.
In Bell’s case, for the second year in a row he’s missing out on post-season competition.
Texas faithful entered this season with two schools of thought on the quarterback succession play. Manning would either play so well and win so many awards and take Texas so far in the CFP that he would have no choice but to go pro, or he would stick around for the 2026 season, which was, and is, still the most likely path. In either event, Bell would have jockeyed for the starting job in 2026 or 2027 against contenders Trey Owens and KJ Lacey.
The new formula suggests there’s a chance Manning may flat-out flop at Texas and send UT looking for an alternative in 2026. Bell, without those key senior reps, would likely not be ready for the job.
Long-term, there are still plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the No. 3-ranked quarterback in the Top247.
Last month, Bell engineered a comeback for the ages as he rallied his Plantation American Heritage squad from a 28-point halftime deficit to beat Philadelphia St. Joseph’s on a last-second field goal. A week later, he threw for 325 yards and three touchdowns against a Hollywood Chaminade-Madonna Prep program that has won four-straight state titles in Florida.
The son of longtime NBA player Raja Bell, Dia has received terrific coaching since his youth and has some of the best mechanics in the class (that should please some of the season ticket holders inside DKR Texas-Memorial Stadium). He’s proven to be accurate to all three levels. He can play in structure and he can also use his slick athleticism to extend passing windows when the protection isn’t clean.
When Bell committed to the Longhorns two summers ago, it came after he threw alongside multiple other high-profile quarterback recruits at a camp in Austin. He was essentially handpicked by Steve Sarkisian and the rest of the offensive staff to be the eventual successor to Manning.
There’s no reason to think that Bell can’t eventually be the guy for Texas, but it’s probably wise to temper the timeline with the most recent injury.
Other QB recruits dealing with injuries
– Faizon Brandon (Tennessee commit): The No. 1-ranked recruit in the Top247 has not played for North Carolina’s Greensboro Grimsley since injuring his thumb on a game-winning touchdown run in the first outing of his senior season. Details on his return have been scarce.
Brandon owns one of the best statistical profiles in the class with a 30-1 record as a starter, having thrown 72 touchdowns to just five interceptions. The Vols look to have struck gold on a one-year rental in transfer Joey Aguilar, but Brandon is viewed internally as Tenneessee’s quarterback of the future and is expected to battle former four-star recruits Jake Merklinger and George MacIntyre for the starting gig when he arrives on campus.
– Travis Burgess (North Carolina commit): Burgess, the No. 7 quarterback in the Top247, tore his ACL during the second game of his senior season. A major rankings riser this summer, the athletic Burgess turned heads at the Elite 11 Finals and was hoping to lead Grayson to its second consecutive Georgia AAAAAA championship.
After a dismal debut, Gio Lopez has found his footing and helped power UNC to back-to-back victories. Lopez has two more years of eligibility remaining after transferring in from South Alabama. He should only get more comfortable running Bill Belichick’s offense, but it could be hard to fend off a healthy Burgess, who is similar in a lot of ways to Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green given the frame and dynamic cuts as a runner.
–Peyton Falzone (Auburn commit): The quarterback situation on The Plains looks much more promising than it did this time last year. Jackson Arnold has the Tigers off to a 3-0 start and the buzz coming out of preseason camp was that ballyhooed recruit Deuce Knight is ahead of schedule.
Falzone, who ranks as the No. 13 quarterback in the 2026 cycle, broke the clavicle in his non-throwing shoulder four games into his senior season and is done for the year. The four-sport athlete and former Penn State commit was always going to be a longer burn, but the injury ended a 12th-grade campaign where he was showing notable growth as a passer.
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