As we sit just a handful of hours before Game 2 of the Western Conference Final, our thoughts are dominated by Victor Wembanyama. The 22-year-old controlled every facet of the series opener in San Antonio’s 122-115 double overtime win over the two-time NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder.
Just as Mark Daigneault and OKC are working feverishly to figure out a path to victory in Game 2 Wednesday night, we work to find an advantage and subsequently profit from Wemby’s other-worldly actions on the court in the Western Conference Finals and possibly the NBA Finals.
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Let’s start with the obvious opportunity we all wish we had played, but few of us did. San Antonio was 66-1 to win the NBA Title before the season began. If you are holding that ticket, wow! So many ways to hedge off that ticket at this point in the playoffs. For us mere mortals, those odds are no more. The value in that market has long dried up. A bet that has cashed is the Spurs regular season win total which was set at 44 games. A rocking chair bet if ever there was one.
But again, the real goal of this exercise is to find value still available for those wanting to take advantage of the wonder that is Wembanyama.
The Spurs are still listed as the slightest of underdogs at DraftKings to win the series against Oklahoma City (-105). Considering they now own the home court advantage; there is value in getting nearly even money to bet today on Wembanyama and San Antonio to advance to the NBA Finals.
Next category to consider is the exact result of the Finals. Because this exercise is all about the wonder that is Wemby, we are only considering the four markets involving San Antonio. The Spurs to defeat Jalen Brunson and the New York Knicks in the NBA Finals is priced at +260. Losing to the Knicks is set at +750. The Spurs to knock off Donovan Mitchell and the Cleveland Cavaliers is set at +650. Cleveland to beat the Spurs is set at +3000.
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The Spurs are currently +155 to win the Larry O’Brien Trophy next month. There is slightly greater value in playing Wemby not to earn MVP honors in the Western Conference Finals (+100) but to be named the MVP of the NBA Finals (+170).
After dabbling in those markets, an obvious avenue is to bet game results. There is immediate value there for Game 2 as Wemby and co. (+200) are underdogs to the Thunder. If you are a believer in OKC to bounce back but it will be a tight affair, take San Antonio and the 6.5 points (-110).
Lets take a look at Game 2 individual markets and possible plays. No question OKC will change things up and look to play tighter defense on Wembanyama. While that is their intent, it is only realistic to believe the Thunder will disrupt him. It is foolish to think they will stop him. The Spurs slowed SGA in Game 1. As difficult a task as that was and will continue to be it pales in comparison to trying to slow Wembanyama. The obvious difference is about a foot as the Spurs’ leader is roughly 12 inches taller than SGA. He can see over any double-team and find the open cutter in the lane or shooter on the perimeter.
With that in mind, let’s look at the combo markets for Game 2. Victor Wembanyama to record a double-double is an unplayable -700. Wemby to record a triple-double (+4200) looks appealing at first glance, but remember, the wispy giant had but three assists and three blocks to go with his 41 points and 24 rebounds. That said, if he is truly double-teamed with consistency, he will find open teammates and those assist numbers should grow religiously throughout the night.
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That is the market to attack on Wednesday night. You will find plus money for Wembanyama to collect 4+ (+148), 5+ (+299), 6+ (+586), and so on up the ladder. All are sensible plays knowing OKC cannot deter Wembanyama covering him with a single human currently on their roster. If you believe that number will approach double-digits, revisit the triple-double (+4200).
Looking to squad ride with the Wembanyama faithful? We have unearthed a few markets worth a little pizza money. Enjoy Game 2 and all the emotions it will bring, but do not let those emotions affect your decisions when it comes to placing a wager on the game. Bet responsibly.
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