This year’s edition of the Third Saturday in October rivalry feels like a playoff eliminator. No. 7 Alabama (5-1) and No. 11 Tennessee (5-1) are both coming off stressful wins preceded by surprise losses.
Tennessee needed overtime to beat Florida, 23-17, a week after a road loss to Arkansas. Meanwhile, Alabama barely held off South Carolina, 27-25, following its stunning upset at Vanderbilt. Each fanbase is nervous about how wobbly Alabama and Tennessee have looked in recent weeks.
Both teams have the talent to be real SEC and national championship contenders, but the path gets considerably harder with a loss on Saturday. Especially when you remember Alabama still has No. 19 Missouri and No. 8 LSU on the schedule, and Tennessee has a road trip to No. 5 Georgia on Nov. 16. A loss Saturday will demand perfection the rest of the way while a win will go a long way come selection day.
Alabama vs. Tennessee: Need to know
QB play needs to be better: Jalen Milroe shot up the Heisman Trophy betting odds after Alabama’s win over Georgia but has fallen back to earth in his last two games. He is currently at +1200 to take home college football’s most prestigious award, according to DraftKings. There’s still a tendency to try to do too much, leading to bad decisions and bad situational awareness at times. Throwing two interceptions and taking a safety against the Gamecocks has to get cleaned up to win against Tennessee. The Volunteers’ starting QB Nico Iamaleava may have the opposite problem, focusing so much on not making a major mistake that Tennessee is missing explosive play opportunities. Iamaleava hasn’t broken the 200-yard mark since Game 2 and has thrown for only one total touchdown in three SEC conference games. Tennessee can rely on a strong ground game, but it still needs a lot more from its ballyhooed starting quarterback.
Tennessee’s defense is legit: Under Josh Heupel, the Vols have made the most noise with what they do offensively, but this year the defense has carried them. Led by defensive coordinator Tim Banks, Tennessee’s defense has been superb in 2024. As our Brandon Marcello pointed out in his great Banks profile, Tennessee ranks second nationally in total defense (249.8 yards per game), yards per play (4), yards per rush (2.2) and third-down conversions allowed (23.8 percent). Tennessee faces its toughest test yet against Milroe, Ryan Williams and the rest of that Alabama offense, but its defensive line should cause some problems against an average Alabama offensive line.
Expect a rollicking game: Last season Tennessee raced out to a 20-7 halftime lead in Tuscaloosa only for Jalen Milroe and the Crimson Tide to dominate the second half and win 34-20. Two years ago, Tennessee also got out to a hot start (21-7 first quarter lead). Alabama stormed back but the Volunteers held the Tide off for a wild 52-49 finish that ended with the goalposts paraded around Knoxville that night. It’ll be rocking inside Neyland Stadium and no matter which team gets off to an early lead, buckle up for what should be a lively back-and-forth affair between two teams with plenty of experience in high-stakes rivalry games.
How to watch Alabama vs. Tennessee live
Date: Saturday, Oct. 19 | Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Neyland Stadium — Knoxville, Tennessee
TV: ABC | Live stream: fubo (Try for free)
Alabama vs. Tennessee prediction, picks
Both teams have been inconsistent this season with highs like Alabama’s win over Georgia and Tennessee’s over Oklahoma paired with shocking lows of road losses. Alabama is the more explosive team and has shown it can win in a track meet-type game, but its defense has left a lot to be desired so far this season. Vanderbilt straight up outplayed Alabama’s defense and got what it needed over and over again on third down. Tennessee should have success running the ball against the Tide, but there remain questions whether Nico Iamaleava can make enough big plays to win a game like this. To this point this season, he hasn’t been able to though it largely hasn’t caught up to Tennessee outside of the Arkansas loss. With what should be a raucous environment, you are best off betting Tennessee to cover in a tight one. Pick: Tennessee +3
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