The next step in profiling Seattle’s shot at defending their AL West throne, and a potential American League pennant bid, comes on the other side of the ball. Seattle’s pitching staff has the easiest task in the sport, in the sense that their hitters face the toughest task. T-Mobile Park, with its predictable dimensions, chilly climate, and SABR-worthy peculiarities in eye of the batting beholder, is a welcoming place for hurlers. But make no mistake, this projects as a worthy group in their own right, as Seattle is joined by only the Dodgers and Blue Jays to have both hitters and pitchers projected in the top-7 of the sport by FanGraphs wins above replacement.
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Anchors (complimentary) of the 2021-2024 Seattle Mariners, in 2025 the starting rotation was at times an anchor (derogatory) to the club’s efforts. While a 3.97/4.02/4.03 ERA/FIP/xERA is no great catastrophe as a starting staff, plenty of the club’s numbers fell short of the standard set by this group. A drop of over 60 innings pitched was most damning, with all but Luis Castillo missing time with injury at one point or another among the top five arms from 2024. Bryce Miller will almost certainly open the season on the injured list, and Logan Evans is sidelined with Tommy John to chip into the depth further.
I’ll skip the panic brake pumping and slam the pedal down here, however. Seattle’s rotation is a huge strength, and is poised for a better showing than a season ago to pair with the improved lineup. Bryan Woo’s breakout was a blessing for the M’s, not only for his excellence but an astounding rate of efficiency. The buttery righty is poised to glide through bats once more in his age 26 campaign, even if he’ll likely face a bit more batted ball fortune on occasion than his lifetime .246 BABIP to this point in nearly 400 innings… right? While George Kirby sought to diversify his targets somewhat, Woo relentlessly pounded the zone at a rate surpassing his famously walk-thrifty teammate. Kirby’s biggest question mark is largely superficial: what impact does his lower arm slot have? The righty seems intent on working the edges more, forcing hitters into disadvantageous swings instead of relentlessly pounding the zone. This is a pathway to more strikeouts and, hopefully, better performance away from T-Mobile Park for Kirby in particular, but it’s likely we’ll see an uptick in free passes, albeit hopefully worth the added K’s.
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Castillo and Gilbert have the least to alter headed into 2026. For The Rock, it’s mostly a battle against time and a workload that is an outlier in this era. No longer needed to be the ace, Castillo is a lynchpin for Seattle’s efforts all the same, as his capacity to deliver six quality innings every fifth game eases the burden on the bullpen and is a luxury few clubs can boast. Gilbert, despite a halting campaign at times a season ago, is pursuing the same goal as Kirby from the opposite end. Despite great velocity, Gilbert’s four-seam fastball is a get-ahead offering but not a strikeout one. His splitter took over the slack for the deterioration of his slider, seemingly a side effect of his injury issues in 2026. Now sporting the slider and a refreshed cutter, Gilbert’s target is the 200 inning mark he eclipsed in 2024.
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The depth will receive some greater shine tomorrow, but suffice to say Emerson Hancock cannot be given much chance in the bullpen as he was late in 2025. While the Georgia righty saw some promise there in short stints, if the M’s hope to avoid the return of the likes of Luis F. Castillo, they’ll hope Hancock can fill in most ably. He is, particularly at home, a fine option in a pinch. Too much, however, and the bullpen could be strained.
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That bullpen’s capacity for strain will look familiar at the season’s outset, although more hale than this time a year ago. The back five of the ‘pen introduce southpaw Jose A. Ferrer, the return in the Harry Ford deal with the Nationals whose knack for groundballs will be a test for a Mariners infield that’s not prioritized defensive prowess in its construction. Still, joined by Speier, Bazardo, Brash, and Muñoz, the M’s can boast one of the better pathways from the 6th-9th in MLB. Likely, Seattle hopes to get to bounce back and forth on days between their five most potent arms, keeping 2-3 fresh per night as often as possible.
The presumed final three also serve that purpose in the inverse. Carlos Vargas, Casey Legumina, and Cooper Criswell all lack minor league options, hence their inclusion on this list, but only Criswell seems assured his role given his capacity for long relief and strong showing this spring.
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Vargas and Legumina have been given ample opportunities in Seattle but have found mixed results, leaving hard-throwing righties Cole Wilcox and Yosver Zulueta windows to crack the club. Both hurlers, as well as the M’s bevy of 40-man relievers, have minor league options remaining, leaving them likeliest to begin the season in Triple-A Tacoma as a tiebreaker.
For Seattle to repeat as AL West champions, the pitching staff will need to improve upon a season ago. The most straightforward path is greater durability and performance from the rotation, easing the load on arms like Bazardo whose workload was, particularly by the end of the playoffs, Herculean. The M’s are positioned to be among the best in baseball on both sides of the ball. That’s what good teams do, and your Seattle Mariners are a good team.
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