Kansas State’s curious roster construction decisions have been fairly questioned ad nauseam amid a 9-11 start. On the other side of the aisle, Iowa State’s roster construction decisions have been fairly praised ad nauseam amid a 17-3 start.
So naturally, Jerome Tang’s club waltzed into Hilton Coliseum, usually a grave site for those who dare to enter, and stunned the third-ranked Cyclones 80-61 Saturday. It’s the first time a team with a losing record beat a top-five opponent on the road by 15+ points in AP poll history, per ESPN Stats and Information.
Not only did the loss snap Iowa State’s 29-game home winning streak, but it also spreads seeds of doubt about whether a team built like the Cyclones can ultimately scale the college basketball mountain to win the national championship. The beauty of Iowa State is that T.J. Otzelberger has constructed a contender that’s relied heavily on smart transfer portal evaluations and internal development. Iowa State doesn’t have a loaded NIL budget, and it has become a national story because its go-to lineup features zero players who were top-100 recruits in high school.
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That’s a stark difference from the historical precedent that championship-level squads have NBA talent. Maybe Curtis Jones or Keshon Gilbert become next-level players, but the jury is still out on that. And that might be the inquiry behind all of it. Does Iowa State have that tip-top talent to win six straight?
After Saturday’s debacle, some questions about the ceiling of this group might have to be in order because shooting 44% from 3-point range on your home floor and losing by 19 just doesn’t add up.
Iowa State falls to a No. 2 seed
Iowa State was a No. 1 seed in Jerry Palm’s Bracketology, but the loss to the Wildcats is expected to bump the Cyclones to a No. 2 seed in the next NCAA Tournament bracket projection.
“Iowa State’s loss at home to Kansas State is going to cost the Cyclones a No. 1 seed in the new bracket when it is posted on Monday,” Palm said. “The Wildcats moved to one game under .500 on the season with the win, so this is a pretty damaging loss for the Cyclones. As of today, that is a Quad 3 loss, which makes ISU the only team in the top 25 of the NET with a loss that bad. That is not how you want to stand out to the committee.
“There are still six weeks to go, so we’ll have to wait and see how badly this ends up hurting the Cyclones in the end, but for now, it’s a minimum one-seed line drop.”
What Kansas State did to clamp down on ISU
An embattled Kansas State team does deserve credit for unlocking some interesting ways to puncture Iowa State’s armor. Tang leaned heavily on big man Coleman Hawkins and used him as a primary initiator to try and keep the ball away from the sticky hands from Keshon Gilbert and Tamin Lipsey. For the first time maybe all season, Iowa State lost its composure and went a bit rogue offensively in the second half. 22 of Iowa State’s 52 attempts were non-rim 2-pointers, and the Cyclones managed just 0.59 points per possession in its halfcourt possessions, per Synergy.
Jones’ miracle shot-making has saved Iowa State numerous times this season, but he could only manage 14 points on 15 shots. Gilbert’s one-man-fastbreak has fueled Iowa State routinely, but Kansas State’s length and activity gave him real problems. Gilbert finished with just eight points on 3-for-9 shooting with five turnovers.
Cyclones beaten on glass
Otzelberger and Iowa State’s staff will also not be happy with the battle on the glass. Defensive rebounding has been one area of concern inside that coaching staff, and Kansas State corralled 43% of its misses against Iowa State, easily a season high.
A turbulent 20 minutes is easy to toss in the dumpster, but this felt a bit different. The quiet concerns about this halfcourt offense were revealed for the world to see. Iowa State has been fabulous in the margins all year, but for once, it showed an ounce of vulnerability.
Maybe Iowa State bounces back with a vengeance in Monday’s road tilt against Kansas. Maybe it was just one of those bad nights which has happened for just about everybody this year. Outside of Auburn, St. John’s, Alabama, Houston and Duke, there are only a handful of clubs that have navigated into February without a head-scratching loss. But entering Saturday, Iowa State was revered as one of those elites.
Recalibration might be in order.
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