The NBA prioritizes parity over dynasties, and with that the path to repeat as NBA champions is intentionally difficult. The NBA is also set up to make it incredibly difficult to keep a contending team together for any reasonable length of time. That is especially true in the tax aprons era of the latest CBA.
The Boston Celtics have run headlong into the wall of both of those realities, which is why change is coming this summer.
The only question is how much.
How Boston got here
Boston was riding high after last season’s NBA title, so it didn’t make many changes last summer and ran it back, which was the right thing to do. Throw in the franchise sale and the decision was made to punt on the big financial questions for a year, knowing the price tag to continue down that path would eventually get too steep. Look at it this way: To bring back Boston’s starting five for next season (2025-26) would cost about $188 million, and the second apron of the luxury tax is expected to be $207.8 million. To keep this full Celtics roster together next season would set a record of more than $500 million in payroll and luxury tax (including a steep repeater tax that kicks in).
There had been buzz around the league for more than a year that the Celtics would have to trade away a core player or two to save money this coming summer, and that was before Tatum tore his Achilles and cast a shadow over next season.
This year, the Celtics were bounced from the playoffs much earlier than expected, in the second round at the hands of the New York Knicks. Part of that was this Boston team that leaned even more heavily into 3-pointers than the championship squad — 53.6% of their shot attempts were from beyond the arc during the season. Even with a top-five defense and a team that still scored well around the rim when they got there, this team was at the mercy of 3-point variance. When Orlando came out with a plan in the first round of the playoffs to take away those 3-point attempts (a model New York followed), it put the Celtics on their back foot and they had some less-than-stellar games.
Bad luck also played a role in the early exit. There was Kristaps Porzingis’ respiratory illness slowing him, Jaylen Brown playing through a torn meniscus, and then Jayson Tatum’s torn Achilles. That last injury leads to the big question before Brad Stevens and the Celtics’ brass heading into this offseason:
How big a change does Boston make?
If Tatum were healthy, we likely would have seen Boston move away from one (maybe two) rotation players, replace them with younger or minimum-contract players, and hope that the depth would hold out. That is still an option, perhaps even the most likely one.
Or, the Celtics can treat next season more as a “gap year” — not trying to lose, but accepting it may not be a championship season — giving them more time to be aggressive and retool the roster to contend with Tatum once he’s healthy. How many moves the Celtics make and who will be sent out depends on how Stevens answers the “how big” question.
Let’s look at players who could be on the move.
Jrue Holiday/Derrick White
We’re combining the guards because it was already expected that one of them would be out the door, even before Tatum’s injury.
Holiday is more likely to be moved, according to league sources. Holiday will be 35 next season and has three years, $104 million left on his contract, starting at $32.4 million. He’s a proven, winning two-way point guard who will draw interest — there are teams like Orlando where Holiday would be a fantastic fit — but with his age and contract, this is not an easy deal to make. The Celtics may need to attach a second-round pick or something else of value to get another team to take on that contract.
While rumors are flying around Holiday, he made it clear, speaking to reporters at his exit interview, he wants to stay in Boston and compete for a title.
“We still have a really, really great opportunity and a great window to be successful and win a championship again,” Holiday said. “I think the talent that we have on this team, not only on the court, but the coaching staff all the way up to Brad, has been amazing. So, the opportunity to win is now, and I still want to be a part of that.”
White, who will be 31 next season, has four years, $118 million remaining on his contract. That deal may be too good to trade away, other teams will ask but they will have to blow away Boston with an offer to make it a reality. That said, there are teams like the Warriors who may have a real interest and make a big offer.
Kristaps Porzingis
He has an expiring $30.7 million contract and is the kind of stretch big in high demand all over the league. He’s also coming off two straight playoffs where he missed time due to injury, and he has been out for 65 regular-season games since coming to Boston.
The Celtics will make calls to try and find a new home for Porzingis, but the market for him is not that deep, especially at that price tag. Again, the Celtics might have to attach another player or a pick to move on from him.
Jaylen Brown
It would be devastating to the fan base — and the ultimate example of why the new CBA with its aprons is bad for fans who want to watch their team draft a player and win with him — but the Celtics have to at least consider trading him this summer.
Brown is 28, in his prime, and next season his five-year, $285.4 million contract kicks in. It’s going to be expensive to keep Brown and Tatum together and have enough around them to contend, which is why if a team like Houston (with good young players and picks) calls and wants to talk Brown trade, Stevens has to consider it.
Brown isn’t looking to move on. He talked about playing through his meniscus injury and his desire to come back and win in Boston after the team was eliminated.
“Losing to the Knicks feels like death,” Brown said. “But I was always taught that there’s life after death, so we’ll get ready for whatever’s next in the journey. I’ll be ready for it.”
“I’m looking forward to coming back stronger, so you just take this with your chin up,” Brown added. “I know Boston, it looks gloomy right now, obviously with JT being out and us kind of ending the year, but it’s a lot to look forward to. I want the city to feel excited about that. This is not the end, so I’m looking forward to what’s next.”
Luke Kornet
Kornet is a free agent this summer who will have better offers from other teams than the Celtics are willing to pay. It’s difficult to see how Boston can afford to bring him back, unless there is room after a major move this summer. Kornet had a strong Game 5, and that should help him get a deal in a spot where he will get more run.
Al Horford
Horford is a free agent who will be 39 next season. He’s still good enough that will be a contract for him if he wants to play, but it won’t be in Boston.
Tatum talked about retirement at his exit interview.
“I’m going to take some time here with my wife and my kids,” Horford said. “There’s still a lot for me to process, feeling everything out from last night — that was difficult.”
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