A viewer’s guide to the NASCAR regular-season finale at Daytona: Five things to watch on NBC

The surprise of the “win and in” is gone, but a bevy of unknowns still lurks at Daytona International Speedway for Saturday night’s NASCAR Cup Series regular-season finale.

With their cars having undergone an aerodynamic and horsepower overhaul, drivers will be learning on the fly at 200 mph around the 2.5-mile oval.

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There will be no practice session before the 400-mile race at Daytona. To understand the impact on handling from changes that will increase passing runs by 3 mph while also reducing grip, the first opportunity will come when cars are inches apart at speed shortly after the green flag.

How to watch 2026 NASCAR Cup race at Daytona: TV info, schedule, entry list, Chase standings, preview

The Cup Series regular season will conclude Saturday night on NBC.

So what to expect?

“That’s a great question and it’s something that every driver, every crew chief, even every spotter is currently debating,” said Austin Cindric, who has a lot riding on the performance of his No. 2 Ford.

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Cindric is one of five drivers trying to claim the three remaining spots in the Chase, the 10-race title run that will begin Sept. 6 at Darlington Raceway. Through 25 races, there are 13 drivers locked into the Chase field, which will be set exclusively by the points standings.

That’s a major change from the past 12 seasons of the elimination playoffs, which tied championship-eligible berths to victories and opened up the possibility of out-of-nowhere winners (such as 19th-ranked Austin Dillon and 34th-ranked Harrison Burton in 2024) making the playoffs.

NASCAR resurrects ‘The Chase’ as the 10-race championship format returns for 2026 season

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The overhaul is the most significant update of its postseason in 12 years.

But there still could be an upset brewing at a track whose reputation for chaotic scrambles and unpredictable finishes could increase exponentially under the lights.

“Honestly, at this point, I have no expectations,” defending series champion Kyle Larson said. “I’m not a car guy. I’m not an engineer. I’m not an aerodynamicist, so I don’t really know what the racing is going to look like, but I’m excited to get out there and try to feel it out and learn quickly. I think we all hope that the racing is better and you can make runs work and all the things, but until we get out there, I have no clue.”

There are some things that we do know heading into Daytona … and here are five major items to keep an eye on Saturday night:

Chase cutline

Bubba Wallace needs only two points to lock up a Chase spot. The 23XI driver is a superspeedway ace (with two Daytona 500 runner-up finishes), and he easily could clinch by the end of Stage 1 (a ninth or better in the opening 35-lap segment would be enough).

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To make up a 66-point deficit to 16th, Brad Keselowski will need some poor finishes by the competition combined with a strong result for his No. 6 Ford (which has been 18th or worse in six of the past 10 races at Daytona and hasn’t scored 66 points in a race this season).

That means the final two spots in the Chase will likely be decided among three drivers: Cindric (who is ranked 15th in the standings at 44 points to the good), Shane van Gisbergen (who has the last provisional berth in 16th) and Ryan Preece, who trails 16th by 31 points. A case can be made on both sides for each.

Cindric won the 2022 Daytona 500 as a rookie but has finished 34th or worse in his last two trips to the World Center of Racing. Preece has experienced the good (three top 10s and a chance to win on the last lap as a 2019 rookie) and the bad (a wicked crash with several barrel rolls in 2023) at Daytona. Ovals still are relatively new for van Gisbergen, but the New Zealander finished in the top 10 of both races at Atlanta, a drafting track similar to Daytona.

Points positioning

Though Denny Hamlin has clinched the top seed in the Chase, the next 15 spots are up for grabs and could have major ramifications on the championship picture in 11 weeks. Hamlin will start the Chase with an extra 25 points, the second-place driver will have a 10-point lead on third, and the rest of the 13 drivers will be separated by five-point increments.

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According to NASCAR analytics firm Racing Insights, the champion started among the top six seeds in 85% of more than 25,000 computer simulations used to statistically model the Chase.

Ryan Blaney, Ty Gibbs and Tyler Reddick are locked into a top-four seed, but the points scenarios are wide open from fifth-ranked Christopher Bell (who could fall as far as 11th in the standings at Daytona) to Daniel Suarez, who could move up to seventh from 13th).

More passing, less saving

By shortening the spoiler from 7 to 4 inches and detuning the engines by 45 horsepower, NASCAR’s goal is to enhance the ability to pull out of the draft and slingshot past the competition.

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Drivers and fans have complained the racing at Daytona and Talladega Superspeedway in recent years has fallen into a pattern of following the leader because there is no slingshot effect to pulling out of line. Seeking other ways to gain positions, teams have focused on maximizing their mileage to advance through the field by spending minimal time refueling in the pits.

Hamlin is optimistic that the changes will make Daytona more similar to Atlanta, the circuit’s third drafting track that puts a greater emphasis on full-throttle racing.

“What we’re essentially trying to re-create is Atlanta at Daytona and Talladega,” Hamlin said. “It happens organically at Atlanta, and the fuel-mileage (racing) really doesn’t happen because you have to be on offense constantly. If you watch the pack, there is no saving. Guys are dicing it up the entire race. So this is what we’re aspiring to get to at some point. This is our first bite of the apple at this, so what I believe is that from the numbers that I’ve seen, it’s going to be roughly a 33% gain in the right direction.”

First-time winner alert

Rising stars Corey Heim, Carson Hocevar and Ty Gibbs each became NASCAR Cup Series winners this season, so the odds are lower of a breakthrough win Saturday.

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But Daytona has a habit of producing new faces in victory lane – 24 first-time winners in its 67-year history (which is nearly double the 13 first-timers at Talladega, which ranks second). There have been four first-time winners in the past eight summer races at Daytona: Erik Jones (2018), Justin Haley (2019), William Byron (2020) and Harrison Burton (2024).

And if it isn’t a first-time career winner, it could be a driver ending a season-long drought as five of the past eight winners have done in the Daytona summer race. The list of 2025 winners who have yet to capture a victory this year is long, starting with Christopher Bell (whose seven runner-up finishes without a win have tied a record). Kyle Larson and William Byron also are overdue for a win.

Late lead changes

Nine of the past 11 Daytona winners have led 10 laps or fewer, and three led only the final lap.

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The final pass for the win has come on the last lap in four consecutive Daytona races, a record streak for the track.

That’s on par for finishes at drafting tracks recently – nine of the past 10 were determined on a last-lap pass (and the other came with a lap remaining).

Here’s the list: