Bracketology Bubble Watch: North Carolina, Indiana, Texas looking for wins to boost NCAA Tournament résumés

Time is running out for teams on the bubble. For all except the West Coast Conference teams, the final week of the regular season approaches.

And we cannot forget the conference tournaments. Many people think those games do not matter, but they absolutely do. They don’t get any special treatment from the committee – they are just another game on the schedule, same as one in November – but in most cases, they are neutral-site games, so there is some value in that. Also, the winner automatically qualifies, and the committee needs that information as well.

There is a massive slate of games on Saturday, all of which are important at some level. Strap in!

Check out Palm’s latest bracket, full field of 68 and Bubble Watch at the Bracketology hub

All times ET

Saturday’s ‘double-bubble’ game

Georgia at Texas

8 p.m. | ESPN2, fubo (Try for free)

These teams have similar profiles. Each are 9-11 vs the top three quadrants. The Longhorns have a couple more wins and one more loss in Quad 2. The primary reason why the Razorbacks are ahead at the moment though is that they won in Austin. Texas will be looking to even the score in the head-to-head matchups and move ahead in the bracket pecking order.

Other bubble teams in action Saturday

North Carolina

vs. Miami, 12 p.m. | ESPN, fubo (Try for free)

The Tar Heels are biding their time until they play Duke next week. They certainly cannot afford to lose before then.

Arkansas

at South Carolina, 1 p.m. | SEC Network, fubo (Try for free)

South Carolina has already shown to be dangerous at home. The Gamecocks beat the Longhorns last week, knocking their tournament prospects back a step. That was South Carolina’s only win in conference play so far. The Razorbacks better make sure that is still true Saturday night.

Nebraska

vs. Minnesota, 2 p.m. | Big Ten Network, fubo (Try for free)

The Cornhuskers have lost three of their last four, including a 17-point whipping at Penn State. Losing to the Gophers would really put Nebraska in a hole.

Oklahoma

at Ole Miss, 2 p.m. | ESPN2, fubo (Try for free)

The Sooners took a tough loss to Kentucky at home Wednesday night to drop to 17-1. That puts more pressure on getting a result or two prior to the SEC Tournament. After this, Oklahoma hosts Missouri and travels to Texas in what could be a very important game for both teams.

Cincinnati

at Houston, 4:30 p.m. | CBS

Cincinnati has won some important games over the last few weeks to get into this position. Now, they do not have to beat Houston to make the NCAA Tournament, not that the win wouldn’t be welcome. The Bearcats will have some work to do still win or lose though..

Xavier   

vs. Creighton, 4:30 p.m. | Fox, fubo (Try for free)

Xavier is the last team in because while there is nothing spectacular about their profile, it is also largely inoffensive. That is not going to work on Selection Sunday though. This game is vital to the Musketeers chances to be an at-large team in two weeks..

Vanderbilt

vs. Missouri, 6 p.m. | SEC Network, fubo (Try for free)

Even though the Commodores are a No. 8 seed in the current bracket, they are still on the bubble because all three of their final regular-season games are dangerous. After this, Vanderbilt will host Arkansas, likely as favorites, followed by a trip to Georgia. It isn’t hard to imagine the Commodores losing all three, but one win should put them in the clear.

Indiana

at Washington, 6 p.m. | Peacock

Indiana is just 4-11 in Quad 1 games and two of those wins are to teams not in the bracket. The other two are at Michigan State and home to Purdue and it has no losses outside of Quad 1. The Hoosiers start their West Coast swing at Washington, which is a “must win” if they are to be able to still say all of their losses are Quad 1. 

Boise State

at Fresno State, 7 p.m. 

Boise State climbed into the bracket for the first time this season. To stay there, the Broncos have to win games like this wherever they are played. Fresno State has had a miserable year and their next opponent, Air Force, has been just as bad. A loss to either of those may not be something they can recover from.

San Diego State

at Wyoming, 8 p.m. | CBS Sports Network

The Aztecs are in a position where they should be OK if they take care of business. Nonconference wins over Creighton and especially Houston are a big help and something the other Mountain West teams don’t have. The home loss to UNLV hurts and the rematch is next week.

Baylor

vs. Oklahoma State, 8 p.m. | ESPN+

Baylor has fallen out of the bracket following the loss at Cincinnati on Tuesday. That is the Bears’ fourth loss in their last five games. All losses hurt, but the one in that stretch that hurt most was the one at Colorado. That was a Quad 2 loss. A loss to the Cowboys would be a second for the Bears in Quad 3.

West Virginia 

at BYU, 10 p.m. | ESPN2, fubo (Try for free)

West Virginia has had some moments this season, like wins over Arizona and at Kansas, but the Mountaineers also have five losses of their 11 to teams that are not in the bracket. That kind of inconsistency is why they are here. The Cougars won the first meeting in Morgantown. West Virginia needs to return the favor. 

San Francisco 

vs. Gonzaga. 11 p.m.  | ESPN, fubo (Try for free)

If the Dons are going to be an at-large team in the NCAA Tournament, this is a “must win.” They don’t have a great schedule, in part because so many conference games are Quad 4, but they have defeated Saint Mary’s and Boise State. This is their last chance. If they lose to Gonzaga, by the time they have enough good wins to be an at-large team, they would be the WCC Tournament champion.

Teams near the cut line

NCAA Tournament locks

Locks based on résumé: 23 | At-large bids in play: 14 | Automatic bids secured: 0 of 31

Note – all references to NCAA Tournament selection records and trends based on NET rankings excludes the 2021 tournament. Due to shortened schedules and a relatively small number of nonconference games, those rankings are not reliable enough to be considered.