Even before the early injuries in spring training there was a nagging feeling that the Mets had left themselves short on quality starting pitching, never mind the level needed to win a championship.
David Stearns deserved the benefit of the doubt based on his track record, and he still does, but if nothing else, Frankie Montas’ lat strain and now Sean Manaea’s oblique injury are an ominous reminder that betting on a repeat of last year’s pitching success is a risky proposition.
Or to put it another way: looks like we’re about to find out if the ballyhooed pitching lab is as good as the Mets’ brass seems to think it is.
Because even though Montas and Manaea both will be on the IL to start the season, indications are the front office is comfortable with the internal options their depth gives them.
That means counting on the likes of Paul Blackburn, Tylor Megill, and Griffin Canning, in addition to Kodai Senga, David Peterson, and Clay Holmes.
For a team that intends to use a six-man rotation, at least after several early-season off days that lighten the workload, suddenly there seems to be a lot of wishful thinking in that starting pitching.
Remember, the six-man rotation at some point becomes a necessity, partly because Senga is accustomed to extra rest from his days in Japan, and partly because no projected starter other than Manaea threw more than 121 innings in 2024.
In short, the Mets are already deep into their depth. Especially since they seem committed to utilizing Jose Butto strictly as a reliever, the role in which he excelled last season before seemingly wearing down from overuse.
On the bright side, Holmes offered reason to believe he can make a successful transformation to starting with his three impressive innings on Saturday, demonstrating an effective changeup as part of his expanded arsenal, but can he throw 150-or-so innings after six seasons as a reliever?
Already, then, it’s fair to say the Mets could use another starter.
Personally, I’d still be thinking big, if it’s at all realistic to acquire Michael King or Dylan Cease from the San Diego Padres. The Mets are going to have to trade prospects at some point soon the way their roster is built, so why not now?
But if the cost is prohibitive, which it may well be, the still-unsigned Jose Quintana would make a nice security blanket. At age 36 he’s not a difference-maker and endured some shaky stretches last season, but he was money in September and is considered a pro’s pro.
Because the Mets are already over the so-called Cohen tax threshold, named after Mets’ owner Steve Cohen, any deal for Quintana would essentially cost them 110 percent of the price, so it’s fair to argue the left-hander wouldn’t be worth it.
But Cohen himself made the point, speaking in Port St. Lucie last week, that the Mets will have the flexibility to add to the roster during season, presumably at the trade deadline.
In that case, why not now?
During that same press session last week, Cohen told reporters, “I think everybody is going to be surprised by our pitching.”
That was the theme of the offseason, that Cohen trusted Stearns could find pitching value where it wasn’t obvious, as he did in 2024.
The Montas signing, a two-year deal for $34 million, including a player option after one, seemed to be stretching the trust limit at the time, considering the right-hander’s history of injuries and inconsistency.
I thought free agents such as Walker Buehler and Jack Flaherty, both of whom received short-term deals elsewhere, offered more potential for high-ceiling performance, and who knows how all of that will play out.
But in any case, it’s fair to say the Mets had the depth to cover an injury to Montas. Manaea’s oblique injury is a bigger problem.
“He’s their horse,” was the way an NL scout put it Monday. “And obliques can linger for several weeks. Then (Manaea) would basically be starting his spring training over at that point, which means you could be well into May before he’s ready to pitch.
“So I’d consider this a pretty big blow for them. Now they really need Senga to stay healthy. I do think Peterson took a big step forward last year, and Holmes has dominant stuff, if it translates to a bigger scale. That still leaves a lot of innings to fill, and their depth looks a little spotty. Maybe they’ll outperform expectations like they did last year. But it’s hard to bank on that every year.”
The Mets also could have high-ceiling help on the way in 24-year-old Brandon Sproat. The hard-throwing right-hander blew through High-A and Double-A last season before struggling at Triple-A, and it remains to be seen if he makes necessary adjustments in 2025.
In addition, several scouts this winter have speculated that by the trade deadline the Mets will have a better read on prospects such as Jett Williams and Drew Gilbert, who missed much of last season due to injury, and at that point the front office will be ready to deal from the farm system if they need pitching.
None of this should change the big-picture excitement for 2025 that came with the signing of Juan Soto, and finally the return of Pete Alonso. The Mets clearly have a championship-caliber lineup and Stearns has earned the trust to believe they had enough pitching.
If nothing else, however, the early injuries have added a new level of scrutiny to that trust.
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