Though the card has undergone some changes, the latest Riyadh Season boxing card on February 22 should be one to remember. The main event on DAZN will see a rematch between Artur Beterbiev and Dmitry Bivol for the former’s status as the undisputed light heavyweight champion.
Beterbiev (21-0) has held light heavyweight gold since picking up the IBF belt in 2017. He won the WBC belt in 2019 and WBO gold in 2022. The 40-year-old had a 100% knockout-to-win ratio before facing Bivol in October.
In the first fight, Beterbiev won via majority decision. The Russian with Canadian citizenship looks for a decisive win this time against his opponent and put away any doubt of his reign.
Bivol (23-1) won the WBA light heavyweight title in 2016, holding onto it until the Beterbiev fight. The Russian consistently fought against the division’s best fighters and even beat those (Canelo Alvarez, Gilberto Ramirez) outside his division.
Bivol wants to hold gold again and looks to step it up without taking his foot off the gas.
“All athletes want to win. We’re like gamblers and of course I wasn’t a winner. Now I want to win, it’s burning inside of me. I want to change something because I can see where I was wrong, and I want to change it,” Bivol said.
With the help of the FanDuel Sportsbook, The Sporting News makes predictions on the entire Artur Beterbiev vs. Dmitry Bivol 2 fight card.
Artur Beterbiev vs. Dmitry Bivol 2 expert picks and full card predictions
Artur Beterbiev (c) vs. Dmitry Bivol 2 for the WBA, WBC, IBF, WBO, and Ring light heavyweight titles
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Artur Beterbiev is the -134 favorite, while Dmitry Bviol s the +106 underdog.
Before moving forward, we must relive what was a top contender for Fight of the Year.
In the first fight, Beterbiev landed 137 of 682 shots (20.1%), and Bivol landed 142 of 423 (33.6%). Beterbiev earned a majority decision win after pushing forward in the later rounds and acting as the aggressor following Bivol’s incredible first-half performance. Bivol landed 50% of his power punches, while Beterbiev only landed 29%.
What can we expect in the rematch?
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Among the top pound-for-pound fighters, Bivol ranks third in +/- at +17.2, while Beterbiev ranks tenth with a +6.9 mark. However, Beterbiev ranks second in average total punches thrown per round (60.5) and third in total punches landed per round at 18.2. Bivol ranks fifth (52.3 and 16.2) and has a higher connect percentage (35.6% compared to 30.1%).
Beterbiev and Bivol are two of the best at throwing and connecting on jabs, with Bivol holding a 24.6% jab connect percentage and Beterbiev at 21.7%. Beterbiev trumps Bivol in power shots landed per round (12.2 compared to 7.8).
Meanwhile, Bivol’s opponents land the second-fewest shots per round (4.3) compared to 6.6 for Beterbiev. The first fight saw an offensive clinic for both, and that could be the same, and maybe even more, in the rematch.
As The Sporting News previously stated, Bivol is a master craftsman and one of the best pure boxers out there. Beterbeiv is an offensive force with an attack plan like no other. Something has got to give.
Beterbiev rarely competes in quick turnaround fights. Outside of 2023, Bivol has fought multiple times a year. In this fight, Bivol should be the faster and more efficient. He will learn from his mistakes and keep his foot on the gas through all twelve rounds. Expect another epic clash but with a different outcome.
Sporting News prediction: Bivol via unanimous decision
Joseph Parker vs. Martin Bakole for the interim WBO heavyweight title
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Joseph Parker is the -182 favorite, while Martin Bakole is the +144 underdog.
Parker was supposed to fight Daniel Dubois for the IBF heavyweight title before the latter fell ill days before fight night. Late opponent changes in boxing are always a gamble. Let’s still play, shall we?
Parker ranks fifth in +/- at -0.2% within the heavyweight division. Bakole ranks seventh. Bakole throws (65.2) and lands (18.9) more total punches per round (29% connect rate) compared to Parker (42.1 thrown, 12 landed, 28.5%). That is a result of a lighter resume.
Bakole lands the most jabs per round (6.7) in the division compared to Parker (3.1).
However, he can get hit himself.
Bakole’s opponents have the highest connect rate (32.1%) compared to Parker (28.7%) and land more power punches. It appears Parker has the edge in defense, if only by a little.
Parker is tough as nails. He overcame two knockdowns against Zhilei Zhang and outworked the Chinese fighter, landing 101 of 349 shots (28.9%). Against Deontay Wilder, Parker landed 29 jabs and 41% of his strikes for power. He landed 20 strikes in the eighth round.
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An upset for Bakole isn’t out of the question. He landed a surprise uppercut against Jared Anderson, knocking the big man down early. He landed 86 of 284 strikes (30.3%), 19 in the third for power and 22 total in the fourth.
Parker can work on the inside and land vicious uppercuts against Bakole, who can do the same. What is Bakole’s stamina like after not having a full training camp to prepare?
Upsets in boxing are not new. Bakole can walk into Saudi Arabia and shock the world. However, Parker has had a full training camp with Andy Lee, one of the best trainers in the sport. It may take a while to figure Bakole out, but Parker should get a stoppage win.
Sporting News prediction: Parker via TKO (round seven)
Shakur Stevenson (c) vs. Josh Padley for the WBC lightweight title
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Shakur Stevenson is the -4500 favorite, while Josh Padley is the +1600 underdog.
Stevenson was supposed to fight Floyd Schofield, who backed out due to illness. Realistically, this should be an easy win for Shakur Stevenson. However, for him, that can mean a quick beatdown or a drawn-out fight.
Stevenson ranks first among all active boxers with a +/- of +20.3. Within the pound-for-pound list, he ranks ninth in average total punches thrown per round (40) and in total punches landed (13.6) for a total connect percentage mark of 34%, which ranks fifth.
There are moments where Stevenson has shown signs of brilliance. He landed 189 of 580 shots (32.6%) against Oscar Valdez and 123 of 245 shots (50%) against Shuichiro Yoshino. The latter fight saw Stevenson limit Yoshino to an 11% connect rate.
There are moments where he can be one of the most frustrating fighters out there.
Stevenson ranks second in the fewest total punches thrown per round at 40, which is on par with the fewest strikes landed (13.6). Even in a win, Stevenson did not land double-digit shots against Edwin De Los Santos. Against Artem Harutyunyan, Stevenson took his foot off the gas multiple times, backing up to not secure counter shots that could have won him the fight early.
MORE: Shakur Stevenson’s biggest test to date: Adapting to new opponent
However, his opponents land the least punches landed per round (5.3). De Los Santos landed 40 punches, a CompuBox record, while Harutyunyan landed 74. So there may be some method to the madness.
Padley is known for knocking out Mark Chamberlain, landing 85 of 250 shots (34%) against the favorite in that fight. A left hook took Chamberlain down, which convinced the judges to give him the win.
Stevenson has everything to lose here. If he wins, it must be a one-sided affair. If he loses, it would be embarrassing for someone considered boxing’s future.
The champion should get the win here. While taking out Schofield would have been satisfying, Stevenson not coasting against Padley should keep the fans interested.
Sporting News prediction: Stevenson TKO (round five)
Carlos Adames (c) vs. Hamzah Sheeraz for the WBC middleweight title
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Hamzah Sheeraz is the -290 favorite, while Carlos Adames is the +215 underdog.
The fight features two hungry middleweights ready to prove to the world what they can do.
Against Julian Williams, Adames landed 160 of 458 shots (35%), with 134 strikes for power.
Adames was even against Terrell Gausha in strikes at 107, landing three more power punches. While slow in the first half, Adames kicked it up a notch later in the fight, landing double-digit shots in five of the last six rounds.
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Sheeraz decimated Tyler Denny in his last fight, landing a knockdown in the first thirty seconds. In less than two rounds, he landed 39 shots, 26 of them power punches. Against Austin Williams, Sheeraz landed 134 of 372 shots (36%), 64 jabs, and 70 power punches.
The challenger is quite big for a middleweight, with a four-inch height and a two-inch reach advantage over the champion. Sheeraz is also five years younger than Adames. Age won’t play a factor, but power and reach might.
If Adames can handle Sheeraz’s power, it could be a long night for the latter. However, Sheeraz should be able to land enough punishing blows to tire Adames out.
Expect this to be a firefight at some point, with Sheeraz pulling through in the end.
Sporting News prediction: Sheeraz via TKO (round six)
Vergil Ortiz Jr vs. Israil Madrimov for the interim WBC super welterweight title
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Vergil Ortiz Jr. is the -124 favorite, while Israil Madrimov is the -102 underdog.
It is one of the toughest matchups to call. The clash of styles can make for a unique and chaotic fight.
Ortiz ranks eighth among active fighters in +/- at +13.3. He ranks third in total connect percentage at 36.2%. Ranked seventh at 6.8, Ortiz lands some of the best jabs per round (26.9%).
The 2016 Golden Gloves silver medalist does land some of the fewest shots per round (9.4), but his opponents rank fourth in the fewest punches landed in 6.5. That could help against someone like Madrimov, who is masterful at footwork and angles.
Madrimov managed to land more power punches than Terence Crawford and had a better connect percentage mark (30.5% to 21.9%) in a loss. He has power, as seen when he took out Magomed Kurbanov and Michel Soro. Can that power translate well against someone like Ortiz?
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Ortiz faced steep competition when competing against Serhii Bohachuk in an epic August clash. He proved he could fight through adversity after being knocked down twice. Ortiz landed 40 more punches and outlanded him 112 to 89 in rounds eight to twelve. He also had a higher connect rate (35.5% to 27%).
Ortiz’s relentless pressure mixed with Madrimov’s unique style could make for some magic at super welterweight. After some back-and-forth thinking, Ortiz’s skills and power should be enough to get the nod from the judges.
The real winner of the fight? The fans.
Sporting News prediction: Ortiz via split decision
Joshua Buatsi (ic) vs. Callum Smith for the interim WBO light heavyweight title
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Joshua Buatsi is the -215 favorite, while Callum Smith is the +164 underdog.
The fight is an interesting clash of styles between a veteran and a rising contender at light heavyweight.
Buatsi has the power to take his opponent down a notch.
He landed 228 of 841 strikes against Dan Azeez (27.1%), with 76 jabs. The last five rounds saw him consistently land 20+ shots. Against Willy Hutchinson, Buatsi lands 150 body shots to the former’s 18. Buatsi landed 264 of 600 shots (44%), landing 36 and 31 shots at one point.
Moving from super middleweight to a new division, Smith found some power, as seen when he took out Mathieu Bauderlique in four rounds. That was also the case when he obliterated Carlos Galvan in five rounds.
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Smith’s resume gives him an edge as he faced Artur Beterbiev at one point. Does that make a difference, considering his performance? “Mundo” landed 59 of 355 shots (16.1%), while Beterbiev landed 182 of 471 (48.6%). Smith hit the canvas twice for the first time in his career in the seventh round before losing via TKO.
Buatsi is not Beterbiev. Nor is he Canelo Alvarez, who landed 57.3% of his power shots, leaving Smith with an 18.4% connect mark. However, Buatsi could be considered the perfect balance between a force and someone in his way.
Buatsi beating Smith, not impossible, would be massive for his career. Once considered a touted prospect, he has a chance to prove critics wrong.
Smith may have a physical edge, but Buatsi has promise, potential, and the skills to back that up. Expect this to be a close back-and-forth affair early on, with Buatsi taking the lead in the later rounds.
Sporting News prediction: Buatsi via unanimous decision
Zhilei Zhang vs. Agit Kabayel for the interim WBC heavyweight title
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Agit Kabayel is the -158 favorite, while Zhilei Zhang is the +124 underdog.
This fight could be over before you can even blink. Could we be in for a surprise?
Among active heavyweights, Zhang ranks first in +/- at 11.2. He averages the seventh-most total punches thrown per round at 27.6 and landed at 9.9, for a connect percentage of 35.9%, the best in the division. “Big Bang” lands the highest power connect percentage at 44%, with a mark of 84.8.
When he is on, Zhang is a runaway train.
He was more consistent in throwing power punches against Deontay Wildr, landing 29 of 33 shots for power. He landed 284 fewer punches than Joe Joyce in the first fight but landed 18 more power punches. He used his power to take Joyce’s vision out and landed 57% of his shots for power in the rematch to drop him.
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Against Frank Sanchez, Kabayel averaged 16 punches landed per round. He also focused on the body, landing 51 shots, some of which took Sanchez down. Kabayel landed 110 of 276 shots (39.9%). When facing Arslanbek Makhmudov, Kabayel focused on the body.
Kabayel loves to push the pace and pressure his opponents. However, he does not have the size or power advantage against Zhang compared to the others. Moving defense to the back of the line, Zhang could take advantage.
Could age play a factor in the fight? The 31-year-old Kabayel is faster than the 41-year-old Zhang. Durability is key here, though someone with Zhang’s experience could have the edge. In that case, Kabayel must play it safe early on but may be unable to, given both their explosive nature.
The Sporting News is going with Zhang to end the fight with a “Big Bang.”
Sporting News prediction: Zhang via KO (round four)
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