The Padres are generally one of the most active teams both at the winter and trade deadline, but it’s been a quiet offseason so far in San Diego.
There was finally some noise made in the Gaslamp District on Wednesday.
BREAKING: Right-hander Nick Pivetta and the San Diego Padres are in agreement on a four-year, $55 million contract that includes a pair of opt-outs, pending physical, sources tell ESPN.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) February 13, 2025
According to Passan, the contract contains opt-outs after the second and third season, and the deal will pay him a $3 million signing bonus and $1 million salary in 2025, $19 million in 2026, $14 million in 2027 and $18 million in 2028.
Here’s a look at what Pivetta has done in the past, and why he can potentially help fantasy teams and the Padres in 2025.
How successful has Pivetta been over the past few seasons?
Pivetta was a respected prospect as a member of the Phillies after joining the club from the Nationals in a trade for Jonathan Papelbon, but didn’t have a ton of success — at least on a consistent basis, anyway — in his three-plus seasons with Philadelphia as seen in an ERA of 5.40 over 94 appearances; 73 of those starts. He was dealt from the Phillies to the Red Sox in a deal for Heath Hembree and Brandon Workman, and his results with the Red Sox have been better, if still not spectacular. He forged an ERA of 4.53 in his first year as a full-time starter in Boston, and followed that up with a 4.56 mark over a league-leading 33 starts in 2022. He worked both in relief and as a starter in 2023 with a 4.04 ERA, 183/50 K/BB ratio and 1.12 WHIP over 142 2/3 frames.
The 2024 season was Pivetta’s most consistent season of work,, and the reason he gets the (potentially) long-term deal and why he was given a Qualifying Offer from the Red Sox after the campaign concluded (note: the Red Sox will receive a draft pick will receive the 77th pick in the upcoming draft as compensation, and the Padres will lose their second-round selection in the process). He made 27 appearances — 26 of those starts — with a 4.14 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 172/3 K/BB over 145 2/3 innings.
What are Pivetta’s strengths?
It probably goes without saying after looking at the numbers above, but Pivetta has been able to get his share of strikeouts in the majors. His career K/9 of 10 tells you that picking up punchouts isn’t a question for the 31-year-old, and it seems unlikely that’s going to change in 2025. His strikeout percentage of 28.9 put him in the 89th percentile of all pitchers who qualified, and he was in the 93rd percentile in that category the season before.
Sometimes pitchers who pick up a good amount of strikeouts have a tendency to issue a good amount of free passes, but that’s not Pivetta’s game. He throws five pitches for strikes — mostly relying on his fastball, sweeper and curve — and his walk percentage of 6.1 percent in 2024 was well above-average in the 80th percentile. The fact hitters know he’s going to be in the strike zone helps him generate a quality chase rate of 30 percent, and his expected batting average against was just .221.
Pivetta has quality stuff, and he challenges hitters with that arsenal to help fantasy managers in both the K category and WHIP.
Where has Pivetta struggled?
Sometimes, challenging hitters hasn’t worked out for Pivetta so well.
In every season that Pivetta has been a full-time pitcher, he’s allowed at least 20 homers, and he allowed 28 of them in his final season with the Red Sox. It hasn’t been a case of bad flyball luck, either. The right-handed hurler allowed a barrel rate just above 10 percent in 2024, and that ranked him in the bottom 10th percentile. His ground ball percentage of 38.5 ranked in the bottom sixth percentile, and his average exit velocity allowed of 89.4 mph against hitters shows that there weren’t many cans of corn.
One of the biggest issues for Pivetta has been avoiding the blow-up start. Of his 27 appearances in 2024, five of those outings saw him allow at least five runs, and another three where he gave up four. While those numbers may not seem horrific, they become a little more ugly when you see that he went over five innings in just one of those outings.
When you go after hitters and you don’t have your best command — and there’s a difference between control and command — then you’re at risk for a clunker. Pivetta has just had too many clunkers to make him an elite starter so far.
How does Pivetta fit in with San Diego, and could this bring about a trade for the Padres?
Obviously, Pivetta is coming to San Diego to join the rotation. The locks of that rotation right now appear to be Dylan Cease, Michael King, Yu Darvish and Pivetta. If those names stick around, it seems likely that Pivetta would be the fourth starter for San Diego to open the season, with Randy Vazquez the probable fifth starter to begin the year.
But the likelihood of those names sticking around seems a bit unlikely, at least in this writer’s eyes. Cease has been mentioned as a potential trade candidate for most of the offseason, and there’s simply no denying that adding a player like Pivetta to the rotation makes trading him — or potentially King, but that seems much more unlikely — a more realistic venture. Recently, the Orioles signed Ramon Laureano to a deal. The Padres have a question mark in the outfield. Could Heston Kjerstad headline a move for Cease? Purely speculation, but it isn’t hard to justify, either.
How aggressive would you be in drafting Pivetta for the 2025 season?
Not terribly.
Now, that’s not to say that you should ignore Pivetta in upcoming drafts. He’s a good bet to help in a few categories, and his chance of picking up some wins behind a good San Diego lineup shouldn’t be ignored either.
With that being said, there’s just as much risk with Pivetta as there is reward from a fantasy perspective, and it seems unlikely that he’s going to make marked improvements considering he turns 32 on Valentine’s Day (happy early birthday, Nick). Yes the strikeouts are solid and the walks are not going to be an issue, but the issues of keeping the ball in the park and avoiding hard contact are just as prevalent, if not more so. The fact that you are just as likely to get a four-inning, five-run start as you are a six-inning, two-run effort is a little too scary for me to trust him as one of my top three starting options.
If you can get Pivetta as your fourth option outside of the top 40 or so hurlers and use him more as a streamer than everyday basis, it’s a nice get. Otherwise, you can probably do better.
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