How NBA experts graded Warriors’ blockbuster trade for Butler originally appeared on NBC Sports Bay Area
The Warriors’ Jimmy Butler acquisition was among the NBA’s most prominent transactions during a hectic trade deadline week.
In addition to landing Butler, the Warriors also signed the 35-year-old star to a two-year, $112 million contract extension.
Here’s how the experts graded Golden State’s trade that sent Andrew Wiggins to the Miami Heat in exchange for the five-time All-NBA forward:
Warriors: B-minus
The stakes for Butler in the Bay are simple: Lift the Warriors out of a fierce battle just to make the play-in tournament and give Stephen Curry another playoff run while he’s still performing at an All-Star level.”
“… Butler’s statistical downturn this season — from 20.8 PPG to 17.0, his lowest average since 2013-14 — seems attributable more to motivation than declining skill at age 35.
“For now, Butler can lift a Warriors defense that has been good but not championship-quality. Golden State is ninth in defensive rating after ranking fourth during the Warriors’ 12-3 start. Part of that was due to unsustainable opponent 3-point shooting — teams hit a league-low 31% against them over that span and are at 38% since, second highest — but Golden State has also forced turnovers at a below-average rate after starting the season in the top 10. Adding Butler, who led the league with 2.1 steals per game in 2020-21, should help the Warriors in that regard.
“Butler will be Golden State’s latest attempt to find some offense with Curry on the bench. Over the course of the season, their offensive rating ranks in the seventh percentile leaguewide without Curry, per Cleaning the Glass. Schroder wasn’t the solution. Lineups featuring him but not Curry were only marginally better, ranking in the 12th percentile.
“If the Warriors can escape the West’s pack and make the playoffs, either by climbing in the top six or through the play-in tournament, “Playoff Jimmy” gives them a reasonable chance at pulling an upset or two.” – Kevin Pelton
Warriors: B
“This is a modest price to pay for a power wing who still has that superstar gear. Anderson’s contract has devolved into slight net-negative territory, and Schröder’s fit has been far from seamless since coming over from Brooklyn. Wiggins is having a solid year and has become a more bankable floor-spacer than Butler, but Jimmy has him beat as a self-creator and table-setter and, arguably, defender.
“Getting someone who can capably run the offense when Stephen Curry sits is a monster deal. Golden State may need Butler to take more threes or flesh lineups featuring him and Draymond Green with specific personnel. Steph’s off-ball gravity makes all full-strength looks tenable. And Butler’s on-ball rim pressure is an element that the Dubs offense has enjoyed only during Jonathan Kuminga’s hottest stretches.
“By the way: So much for Butler not wanting to be in—or sign an extension with—Golden State. Bankrolling a max deal that runs through his age-37 season is risky. But the length aligns with current contracts for Steph and Dray. Peak Butler remains someone who can elevate the Warriors to fringe contention, and equally critical, if things go belly up, the organization hasn’t depleted its asset stash.” – Dan Favale
Warriors: B-plus
“The Warriors get an engaged Butler, and an engaged 35-year-old Butler can still produce offensively and defensively. While getting Butler to Phoenix was a hot topic and perhaps his main objective, Butler never ruled out going to Golden State, which is trying to make another title run with Steph Curry. Plus, the Warriors didn’t give up Jonathan Kuminga in a trade, and are locked into Butler long-term.
This season, Butler had a reduced role with the Heat as Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro become the focal points offensively. Butler still produced solid statistics, averaging 17.0 points, 5.2 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 1.1 steals while shooting 54% from the field, 36.1% on 3-pointers and 80.1% on free throws. He will have a larger offensive role with Golden State. And its 19th-ranked offense needs improvement.
Butler will help the Warriors’ No. 9 defense, as well. The 10th-place Warriors are 25-24 and battling for a postseason spot in the West. After a promising 12-3 start, the Warriors are 13-21.” – Jeff Zillgitt
Warriors: B-plus
“So, let’s start with the basketball component of this. Despite Butler’s foibles, he is not only still a very good basketball player, but one that does things the Warriors badly need. He doesn’t just provide secondary scoring and ball-handling next to Stephen Curry, but he does so in ways that the Warriors currently lack. Golden State currently ranks 25th in the NBA in points in the paint. Butler still gets to the rim fairly frequently. The Warriors rank 28th in the NBA in free-throw rate. Butler has always gotten to the line and led the Heat in free-throw rate this season.
“Obviously, Butler’s playoff track record is beyond reproach. He remains a very good and very versatile defender. The combination of him and Draymond Green unlocks virtually any scheme or matchup Steve Kerr might want to deploy. While no offense in the NBA is quite as pass- and movement-happy as Golden State’s, Miami’s egalitarian system is about as close as it gets. The learning curve here should not be too steep. The fit, in just about every way, makes sense.
“And then there’s the matter of the cost. The protected first-round pick the Warriors gave up isn’t exactly nothing. If the draft were tomorrow, it would be in the lottery in the No. 14 slot. But you would assume that Butler will make the Warriors better, not worse, so that pick is likely to drop into the middle of the first round at least, and given how tight the Western Conference is, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that it hits the low-20s.
“Andrew Wiggins is admittedly a loss, but Butler obviously fills in for him ably. Schroder has been bad for the Warriors on just about every front. An isolation scorer, he simply didn’t fit into Golden State’s motion offense. Lindy Waters is a fairly replaceable deep bench player.
… The Warriors still have a long way to go. They have a flawed roster and currently sit in the No. 10 seed in the Western Conference. But this trade was their best chance at making any noise whatsoever this season, and they did well to complete it.” – Sam Quinn
Warriors: A
“The Warriors get a player who should come in and immediately fit their DNA. Butler, in connection with the trade, agreed to decline his player option for next season and sign a two-year extension worth $121 million, locking him in with the Warriors — presumably — until it’s time for retirement.
“Butler will add a formidable defensive and playmaking presence to the Warriors, as well as a shot-creator who can consistently get to the free-throw line, and create in the half-court.
“Butler’s play usually levels up in the playoffs, and since the Warriors are hoping for yet another championship run, that should make them comfortable with the 6-foot-7 wing, who now becomes the clear-cut, second-best player on the team behind Curry.
“The fact that Jonathan Kuminga, who wasn’t a part of the deal, sticks in Golden State is a huge win for head coach Steve Kerr and his troops, allowing the Warriors to run a young second unit.
“If there’s a franchise that can handle all kinds of different personalities, it’s Golden State, meaning the Warriors stand strong, and on firm ground, after this acquisition. This gives them an A.” – Morten Stig Jensen
Warriors: B
Smoke around Golden State’s interest in Butler started over the summer, but the asking price at that time was too high. The one it ended up paying is pretty low.
It’s tough to move Wiggins when he had recaptured some of the magic from his 2022 All-Star season and was playing well on both sides of the floor. But he had to be the matching salary in any big trade, and Butler is clearly the better player between the two.
Moving only one of the team’s two first-round picks is a pretty nice piece of negotiating from Mike Dunleavy. Getting protections on that pick is even better. Golden State also got to hold onto all of its young prospects, including Jonathan Kuminga.
Butler can still bully his way to his preferred spots on the floor. He’s a good facilitator and great at getting to the line. He’s a streaky shooter, but he is hitting 36.1 percent from deep this year. He’s also terrific in the clutch and gives the Warriors versatility at the end of games they were missing. His playoff exploits are the stuff of legends.
Giving Butler the contract extension makes this deal a little more difficult to swallow from the Warriors’ side. There’s such a high potential for this to go badly. If Butler’s value was this low, what will it be like on a longer-term deal for more money when he’s even older? But two years, which was the maximum extension length that he was eligible for, is manageable.
Overall, this does give the Warriors much more upside and a chance to maximize Curry’s last few seasons where he’s playing at an All-NBA level. You can’t really fault Golden State too much for going with that approach.
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