On Friday afternoon, ten fighters will enter the PFL SmartCage in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, to compete for five one million dollar prizes. Gambling may not be allowed over there, but this card will still attract bets from around the world. TSN’s Val Dewar broke down the best bets for PFL 10.
Timur Khizriev vs Brendan Loughnane
One-time PFL featherweight champion Brendan Loughnane lost in the first final he ever competed in when he faced Movlid Khaybulaev, albeit by split decision. Despite being a solid wrestler himself, Loughnane got out-grappled that day by the Dagestani. Odds-makers clearly expect the same to happen now, Brendan is +255.
Increíbles movimientos que nos ha dejado Timur Khizriev en esta pelea #Bellator301 pic.twitter.com/hrv5aiKSDg
— Pelunaton (@pelunaton) November 18, 2023
Khaybulaev’s countryman Timur Khizriev is a decision machine, winning 76% of his fights that way and having zero finishes in PFL/Bellator. His last fight had thin margins, he won by split against a striker with good defensive wrestling in Gabriel Braga. Five rounds will be even more grueling; he has not gone 25 minutes since 2019.
The price is off. Although Khizriev is more likely to win, Loughnane has better than the 28% win probability that the odds imply.
Brendan Loughnane misses out on the UFC because Dana said he was boring.
Goes on a 11-1 run & wins a million dollars.
What a G pic.twitter.com/PnRjowVM3Q
— Ocelot MMA (@Ocelot_MMA) March 29, 2023
Taila Santos vs Dakota Ditcheva
Manchester’s Thai boxing starlet has a bright future, but Santos may be too experienced and well-rounded for a woman who has only faced one decent grappler and no good wrestlers.
Dakota Ditcheva🔥 pic.twitter.com/DacHp9gbsx
— Connoisseur of Combat (@ConOfCombat) September 30, 2023
As a +290 underdog, the pick is obvious, but +900 for her to win by submission is also a gift given the matchup.
The former UFC title challenger could fall to the striking of Ditcheva, but her own Muay Thai background should help her survive and set up her takedowns.
Taila Santos with the only finish so far 👏🏼 pic.twitter.com/7l8tuA6q40
— MS (@UFC_Obsessed) November 21, 2021
Brent Primus vs Gadzhi Rabadanov
Gadzhi Rabadanov is a massive favorite, and rightly so. His striking is far better than a BJJ expert like Brent Primus, as is his wrestling. Primus will be hard pressed to get this fight where he wants it.
Yet it is surprising to see the point spread (-5.5) priced at -180. A knockout finish or a wide decision, which is his mostly likely path against the durable Primus, would make this bet a winner.
Gadzhi Rabadanov SHEESH #PFLPlayoffs
— Connoisseur of Combat (@ConOfCombat) August 17, 2024
Denis Goltsov vs Oleg Popov
Denis Goltsov has been a PFL mainstay going back to the opening season and has built a 13-3 record with the promotion without ever managing to secure gold. Losses to most of the decent heavyweights he’s faced – Ali Isaev, Ante Delija, and Renan Ferreira, the former two of which managed to take him down – do not bode well.
Popov is undefeated but is everything nobody wants in a heavyweight. With three decisions in his four PFLator fights it is unlikely he will finish Goltsov, but his wrestling is even better than Delija and Isaev. Oleg’s striking is more than serviceable as well; his moneyline and decision are both solid bets.
Oleg Popov finishing high crotch shots on the cage by reaping inside the calf and pulling it out
Good option for HW where you might not want to risk running the pipe and ending up underneath a large fat guy pic.twitter.com/1kFje7crZf
— MixingMartialArts (@RyanAWagMMA) June 20, 2024
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