How Indiana’s 23-point loss to Ohio State impacts Hoosiers’ College Football Playoff chances

Indiana’s special season ran into a brick wall Saturday afternoon as the fifth-ranked Hoosiers fell 38-15 on the road against No. 2 Ohio State. All week, questions about Indiana’s legitimacy as a Big Ten power and a College Football Playoff competitor swirled. 

Curt Cignetti’s squad needed a statement answer. It leaves Columbus with a whimper after managing just 151 yards of total offense — the fewest that Ohio State has allowed against a ranked opponent in 17 years — 75 of which came in garbage time during its final touchdown drive. This result also gave Ohio State its largest win against a top-five opponent since 2000.

The loss, it says here, does not at all erase what Indiana has achieved this season. It entered Saturday’s slate with the No. 6 strength of record, per ESPN’s FPI metric, which is a résumé befitting a College Football Playoff competitor. The Hoosiers have been largely dominant while playing in one of college football’s premiere conference. Their first 10 wins came by an average of 30.1 points. 

But none of those wins were against ranked opponents. Indiana still has just one victory against an FBS opponent with a winning record. 

The Hoosiers have largely excelled against the schedule they were given. In the one game where they really needed to look competitive, though, they weren’t. Now they’ve left their College Football Playoff fate up to the whims of the selection committee. 

So what does Indiana need to do to make the field at this point? 

Finishing the year 11-1 is a good start. An 11-1 Big Ten team will always have a strong claim for a spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff, no matter what else is happening around the nation. 

All Indiana needs to do to get to 11 wins is beat in-state rival Purdue. That shouldn’t be too difficult — the Boilermakers are 1-10 this year and they’ve been outscored 195-17 in four games against top-10 opponents. 

So that win wouldn’t necessarily resonate as the selection committee goes into decision-making mode, but it would put Indiana past a key win threshold. Then it just comes down to how the Hoosiers are viewed against other at-large teams. 

Indiana will want to pay close attention to the SEC, which has a logjam near the top of its standings. In the latest set of College Football Playoff Rankings, the SEC had four teams in the top 10. Three of them already have two losses. 

Here’s how Indiana’s record stacks up against those two-loss SEC teams that are still in the running: 

Ole Miss’ Week 13 loss to Florida, which dropped it to 8-3 on the year, is a step in the right direction for the Hoosiers since it effectively eliminates one at-large team. It should also be noted that Tennessee dropped a game against Arkansas, which is 3-4 in SEC play, earlier in the season.

Indiana also needs to keep an eye on the ACC. 

Based on ranking trends, there is a chance that both the Hurricanes and the Mustangs make it into the College Football Playoff — provided they finish the regular season 11-1 — regardless of what happens in the ACC Championship Game. 

The next set of College Football Playoff Rankings will be crucial for seeing how the selection committee now views Indiana. Regardless, the Hoosiers can only feel good about their standing if other teams start to slip up.