Even the most outlandish preseason College Football Playoff projections failed to account for the possibility of two Group of Five teams making the field. Given the selection committee’s track record of excluding deserving non-Power Four programs in the past — 2017 UCF comes to mind — it seemed almost unimaginable that the Group of Five would, or even could, exceed the one automatic bid its highest-ranked conference champion was effectively allocated when the new 12-team format dropped.
Well, fast-forward 13 weeks into the season and No. 19 Army has a chance to do something unimaginable. The Black Knights take on No. 6 Notre Dame inside Yankee Stadium, with a chance to start 10-0 for the first time in program history.
If they walk out with a win, there’s no debate: two Group of Five teams should make the College Football Playoff.
That comes with the obvious caveat that Army would have to finish the regular season undefeated and then win the AAC title, while No. 13 Boise State — which has long sat in good standing for the playoff — runs the table the rest of the year.
That would present a hypothetical where 12-0 Army and 12-1 Boise State each have a conference title. Depending on how other conference races play out — like the log-jammed Big 12, which could hypothetically produce a champion that isn’t highly ranked — that may be enough for both teams to steal an automatic bid.
Unfortunately, what seems like a slam-dunk decision will still come down to the mercurial opinion of the committee. The Group of Five’s one auto-bid means either Army or Boise State would have to stack its résumé against the rest of the at-large bubble.
Take conference affiliation out of the conversation and there’s no doubt that a 12-win league champion absolutely deserves a spot over a two-loss Power Four program that didn’t even do enough to make a conference championship game.
Recent ranking trends suggest that it would be hard to unseat Boise State as the Group of Five’s automatic qualifier. Army beating Notre Dame could be enough to propel it into the driver’s seat, though, and a momentous result like that certainly resonates.
In 2021, Cincinnati became the first Group of Five team to make the College Football Playoff largely because it downed No. 9 Notre Dame on the road early in the year. The timing, in this instance, would be perfect for Army, since its potential win against the Irish would land less than three weeks before the selection committee releases its final set of rankings.
Both Boise State and Army already boast impressive records, even if their respective strengths of schedule may fall below the national average. Boise State’s strength of record (SOR) currently sits at No. 15 nationally while Army is No. 19, according to ESPN’s FPI metric. Those numbers can tick up over the next couple of weeks with additional wins.
Both already rank higher than other potential bubble teams like Colorado, and Boise State is just a couple of spots behind the likes of SMU, Ole Miss and, yes, Notre Dame.
All of this hinges upon Army actually winning against Notre Dame. It’s doable, but it won’t be easy, and recent history hasn’t been kind to the Black Knights. They haven’t claimed victory against the Irish — who have won 15 straight in the series — since 1958.
Notre Dame already crushed one service academy’s hopes when it dispatched Navy 51-14 on Oct. 26. While the Midshipmen were overmatched, they hurt themselves by turning the ball over six times.
Army’s been dominant this year, but it will have to play a near-perfect game to unseat the Irish. If that happens, placing two Group of Five teams in the College Football Playoff should be an easy decision.
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