This four-game tilt against the Rays in the penultimate series of the season had the chance to be a blockbuster showdown to decide the division. However, the Yankees losing two out of three to the Diamondbacks removed a lot of the jeopardy from this series, New York now needing to sweep just to avoid being eliminated from the AL East title race and depending on a very unlikely collapse from Tampa in their final series of the season to keep the divisional door the slightest bit ajar. All the same, this could be a preview of a prospective ALCS showdown, so I expect both teams to come out firing. The first game of today’s doubleheader is a makeup of the rainout from May 23rd.
Carlos Rodón finds himself in the unexpected position of being on the postseason rotation bubble. Cam Schlittler and Max Fried are seemingly locks which would pit Rodón against Gerrit Cole for that final spot if they roll out a three-man rotation. It almost comes down to a style choice at that point — Rodón walks almost three times as many batters as Cole, but surrenders about half as many home runs per nine. He’s a good choice to start a game against the Rays — in six starts against Tampa with the Yankees, Rodón has a 3.69 ERA and 31.3-percent strikeout rate in 31.2 innings. In 15 starts this season, Rodón is 6-3 with a 2.95 ERA (142 ERA+), 3.69 FIP, and 83 strikeouts in 76.1 innings.
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The Rays have a maddening habit of transforming other teams’ castoffs into rotation stars. This season’s example is longtime journeyman Nick Martinez, who had pitched as a swingman the previous four years in San Diego and Cincinnati. Martinez owns the lowest walk rate (3.5-percent) of any qualified starter, using deception and precise command to induce soft contact. He’s technically got a six-pitch mix but usually sticks with sinker, changeup, cutter, and four-seamer. In 29 starts, Martinez is 15-4 with a 2.94 ERA (142 ERA+), 3.98 FIP, and 101 strikeouts in 171.1 innings.
This is more or less the Yankees’ go-to lineup for the rest of the regular season with Aaron Judge on the IL. Heliot Ramos and Spencer Jones are both going to get a lot of run out in the outfield, so it was encouraging to see them both hit home runs against the former Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes in their last game. José Caballero gets the start over Ryan McMahon at third and sounded eager to make an impact against the team that traded him to the Yankees at last year’s deadline.
The Rays have their three-headed slugging monster atop lineup and then stack the bottom two-thirds with speed. Junior Caminero is third in MLB with 41 home runs giving him back-to-back 40-HR seasons. Chandler Simpson is MLB’s stolen base leader with 46 and third in batting average at .309, but is the only qualified hitter in baseball without a home run this season.
How to watch
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Location: Yankee Stadium – Bronx, NY
First pitch: 1:05 pm ET
TV broadcast: YES, Rays.TV
Radio broadcast: WFAN 660/101.9 FM, WADO 1280 (NYY) | WDAE 95.7 FM, WQBN/1300AM (TB)
Streaming: Gotham Sports App, MLB.tv (out-of-market only)
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