Entering the last week of the Major League Baseball season, 13 teams are still alive for October, and not one of them would be considered a totally complete team.
The Milwaukee Brewers have the best record in baseball but just one starter behind its ace it can actually trust. The Tampa Bay Rays are on the verge of clinching the top seed in the American League but have a lineup that goes cold at the bottom of the order almost every night. And a few teams, like the New York Yankees, are staring down injuries that can make or break their October.
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Last season proved how a fatal flaw can come back and bite a team in October.
The Brewers had the best record in baseball in 2025 then scored one run a game and hit .128 in a four-game National League Championship Series sweep by the Dodgers. It was the lowest batting average in a postseason series of at least three games in MLB history. Their power outage was not a fluke. Milwaukee finished the year in the bottom third of the majors in home runs, covering for it all season with contact and speed. The flaw was there, buried under 97 wins, and it was exploited once the bright lights came on.
Here’s the one fatal flaw that could end each contender’s season:
MLB POSTSEASON FIELD: Who has clinched berths and who’s on the verge?
The Rays have the best record in the American League (95-60, through Sept. 20) and need only a win or a New Yankees loss to clinch the AL East and home field advantage through the ALCS. Their flaw is buried at the bottom of the order. The seventh, eighth and ninth spots in the lineup rank 24th in the majors in OPS. Taylor Walls is hitting .219 with a .609 OPS in 52 games. Jorge Mateo has a .397 OPS in 23 games since Tampa Bay acquired him. The Rays have been burned by this flaw before. In 2023,the bottom of their lineup went 3-for-17 with no runs scored in a two-game sweep by Texas in the Wild Card Series, part of a 33-inning postseason scoreless streak.
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The Yankees lead the majors with a 3.08 bullpen ERA, but Aaron Boone trusts exactly three relievers with a game on the line: closer David Bednar and setup men Brent Headrick and Paul Blackburn. Every reinforcement behind them has left doubt in Boone’s mind. New York traded a struggling Camilo Doval away at the deadline instead of adding to the pen, then lost Fernando Cruz to a partial UCL tear in late August. Ryan Weathers, the next man up, hasn’t pitched since Aug. 23. Blackburn and Headrick had already thrown 79 and 73 innings heading into Sunday’s game, more than typical setup men carry into a pennant race, let alone October. History carries a warning for the Yankees here. Cleveland’s bullpen led the majors in the second half of 2016, but manager Terry Francona rode just two trusted arms hard, Andrew Miller and Cody Allen, through October. Both were spent by Game 7, and Cleveland ended up blowing a 3-1 World Series lead. One bad week from the bullpen and the Yankees are heading to the golf course instead of the World Series.
Boston clinched a playoff berth Sunday, Sept. 20 depite losing and hold the second AL wild card at 84-72, but its bullpen depth beyond three arms is the real question. Justin Slaten is done for the season, a degenerative elbow injury discovered too late to fix with anything but rest. Tyron Guerrero has been out since Sept. 1 with shoulder inflammation. Closer Aroldis Chapman, 34 saves and a 1.95 ERA, is nursing lat tightness, which already forced Garrett Whitlock, an ERA near 1.80 himself, into save situations he’s never handled before. Boston gave up infield prospect Marcelo Mayer in August just to get reliever Erik Miller. That’s how thin the bullpen was even before the injuries hit.
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A thin bullpen is a real weakness in October, as the Orioles showed in 2023. Felix Bautista suffered a season-ending elbow injury just weeks before the playoffs and Baltimore went on to be swept in the American League Division Series.
The White Sox lost their lead in the AL Central, and part of the reason is a red flag for the playoffs. If they get in, the worry is that their rotation can’t get through a lineup twice. Sean Burke went six innings against Detroit on Sept. 19, the first White Sox starter to complete six innings since Aug. 21. That’s nearly a month of bullpen games in disguise. Trade deadline pickup Luis Castillo got pulled from the rotation entirely and moved to relief after his outings collapsed. His replacement, rookie David Sandlin, has an ERA near 7. Anthony Kay has been yanked early in four straight starts. Sean Newcomb, who carried the bullpen for months, has allowed runs in five of his last six outings. Chicago fell out of first place in the AL Central for the first time since early July, and it wasn’t the offense that let go.
Cleveland’s bullpen has no safety net. Closer Cade Smith has carried the group all year, but Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz, the two relievers who were supposed to set up in front of him, haven’t thrown a competitive pitch all season. Both are on unpaid leave while awaiting a federal trial on pitch-rigging charges – now pushed to November – which puts them out for the postseason, too. The relievers brought in to cover that gap keep breaking down. Colin Holderman aggravated a wrist injury on a rehab outing Sept. 17. Shawn Armstrong, out since July 25 with a calf strain, isn’t eligible to be back until Sept. 23. Cleveland is leaning on arms with no October track record to hold leads under the most pressure of the year
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Houston’s bridge to Josh Hader has collapsed. The Astros trail Texas by one game in the AL West with six left, and the two setup relievers who were supposed to get games to him are both hurt. Steven Okert, their best setup arm, hasn’t pitched since Sept. 1 with a hamstring strain and won’t be back before the postseason … if there is one. Enyel De Los Santos joined him on the injured list Sept. 19. That leaves Bennett Sousa, who has a 5.27 ERA and control problems, and Bryan Abreu, who blew a save the same day in a loss that knocked Houston out of a playoff spot. That’s two hurt setup arms and a shaky one left standing. That is not a formula for October.
The Rangers lead the AL West by one game over Houston, but the bullpen behind Jacob Latz wasn’t built for this. Texas lost two relievers for the season – Carter Baumler and Jalen Beeks – and designated veteran Chris Martin for assignment in August after a 7.00 ERA. That left Latz, a converted starter, as closer by default. He converted nine consecutive saves before blowing one against Boston on Sept. 18. Days later, Skip Schumaker had nobody left in the pen and had to use starter Nathan Eovaldi for relief innings, then Jordan Montgomery for more two days after that.
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A starter coming out of the bullpen isn’t that crazy in the playoffs, but a bullpen held together by starters filling in is a screaming warning siren.
Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep both had season-ending elbow surgery in late August – Schwellenbach’s second in under a year. Bryce Elder had knee surgery in September. Reynaldo López has been on and off the injured list twice, most recently Sept. 15. That is four rotation arms gone and leaves Chris Sale, 14-9 with a 2.18 ERA, and Tyler Mahle, sharp since he arrived from San Francisco, as the only settled postseason starters Atlanta has. The Braves have tried this before. In 2013 they lost Tim Hudson and Brandon Beachy to injuries, went into October with only Kris Medlen and Mike Minor as trusted starters and rode 37-year-old Freddy Garcia to a Game 4 exit in a 3-1 NLDS loss.
The Phillies traded for Jhoan Duran for just this time of year, and he hasn’t disappointed. The problem for Philadelphia is getting to him. Orion Kerkering, their setup man for most of the year, got optioned to Triple-A on Sept. 19 after an ERA above 8.00 since the All-Star break. Jonathan Bowlan, who took over the eighth inning, is playing through a groin strain. What’s left is rookie Alex McFarlane and September call-up Max Lazar in the highest-leverage innings of the year. Philadelphia holds the last NL wild card spot at 86-70, a game behind the Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres, with no margin for what comes next.
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Milwaukee may have the best record in baseball – 98-58 through Sunday – but they run out of starters really fast. Jacob Misiorowski is a bona fide ace and the likely NL Cy Young winner, and Logan Henderson has quietly gone 10-3 with an ERA near 2.50 behind him. After that, it’s question marks. The Brewers traded Freddy Peralta in January then lost Brandon Woodruff and Quinn Priester to season-ending surgery. Kyle Harrison was supposed to be the answer behind Misiorowski. He had a 2.57 ERA before the All-Star break. Since then, it’s over 7.00, including four earned runs in one and two-thirds innings against Pittsburgh on Sept. 17. Deadline pickup Dustin May is an unproven fourth option with little margin for error. The best record in baseball still needs pitching to win a series.
The Cubs will take the best offense in baseball into October – 835 runs scored through Sept. 20, the most in the majors – and pair it with the pitching staff most likely to give a game away. Chicago’s pitchers have allowed 227 home runs, also a league high. Cade Horton needed Tommy John surgery in April and won’t pitch again this year. Ben Brown was shut down for good in September with a neck injury. Justin Steele hasn’t started a big league game since April 2025. Deadline addition Kevin Gausman has a 5.04 ERA in eight starts as a Cub. Clay Holmes had a 1.55 ERA in his first five Cubs starts then allowed eight earned runs in 4â…“ innings against Miami on Sept. 6, leaving Craig Counsell still deciding whether he trusts him in October. It’s happened to a loaded lineup before. The Dodgers scored 906 runs in 2023 – the second most in baseball that season – then watched Lance Lynn set a playoff record allowing four home runs in one inning as Arizona swept them out of the NLDS. Even the best offense in baseball can’t outscore its own pitchers giving up home runs like this.
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The Dodgers’ bullpen problem is bigger than one bad closer. Edwin Diaz posted an 11.85 ERA before a neck injury, then came back Sept. 18 after a rehab stint so bad he retired two of eight batters in one outing. Dave Roberts didn’t give him the ninth inning back. His replacement, Tanner Scott, isn’t clean either. He blew a save against Miami on Sept. 13, his fourth in 26 chances. Setup man Edgardo Henriquez, who has a 2.85 ERA, went down with a back strain Sept. 14 and won’t pitch again this season. A bullpen implosion has cost the Dodgers before. The 106-win 2019 team kept turning to Joe Kelly until he finally served up a series-ending grand slam. Los Angeles clinched its fifth consecutive NL West title with a bullpen nobody trusts yet.
Luis Rengifo was hitting .291 with a .784 OPS when he tore his ACL on Aug. 29. He is done for the year, and so is the San Diego bench really. Gavin Sheets has been out with a foot injury since late August. Ramón Laureano’s absence has stretched deep into September. The Padres are tied with the Cubs and one game ahead of the Phillies for wild card positioning but sitting on the wrong side of the tiebreakers to both teams. They are filling in with September call-ups instead of players they built the roster around, and there isn’t much season left to figure out if that holds up. The 2012 Yankees tried that when they lost Derek Jeter to a broken ankle in the ALCS opener; they got nothing much from the bench options and were swept by Detroit hitting .157 as a team.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: One fatal flaw on each MLB contender that could derail long playoff run
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