To prepare for my “On Paper” preview between the Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills, I watched Week 1’s game between the Bills and the Houston Texans. Taking notes along the way, I came up with five observations about Buffalo’s performance, and how it may impact Thursday night’s showdown.
1. Their run defense may be significantly improved
I’m feeling pretty darn good about the Detroit Lions’ rushing attack after a strong Week 1 outing against a Saints run defense that was excellent last season. Heading into Week 2 against a Bills run defense that ranked 31st in both DVOA and EPA/rush, I figured this could be a huge advantage for the Lions to exploit.
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However, there were signs the Bills defense could be significant improved this year under new coordinator Jim Leonhard. Yes, the Texans ran for 124 yards and two touchdowns, but it came on 32 carries, averaging just 3.9 yards per carry.
What was particularly impressive was the Bills’ ability to generate negative plays in run defense. The Texans had the seventh-highest “stuffed” rate per FTN Fantasy—with 24% of their rushes being stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Now, the Texans rushing attack was terrible last year (27th in stuffed rate, 29th in DVOA). So this wasn’t the biggest test for the Bills run defense, but it was a promising start.
2. Jared Goff could have some time in the pocket
On the other side of the Bills’ defensive front, they surprisingly did not produce much pressure against a questionable Texans offensive line. Per NFL Pro, C.J. Stroud faced the lowest pressure rate (21.4%) of any quarterback in Week 1, despite taking three sacks (and two forced fumbles).
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Now, when the game was on the line and the Texans were in the red zone to win it, the Bills pinned their ears back and picked up two of those sacks and the game-winning fumble recovery, but for most of the game, the Bills pass rush was largely invisible.
3. Josh Allen, Joe Brady are psychopaths
Okay, this is nothing new, but Josh Allen was an absolute menace on Sunday vs. the Texans—throwing caution to the wind.
Allen is every bit of the gunslinger he has been for the entirety of his career, but I also think Joe Brady’s promotion from offensive coordinator to head coach is enabling him even further.
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Take, for example, when the Bills got the ball up 24-21 at the end of the first half. They were on their own 17-yard line with 18 seconds left and the Texans had only two timeouts. Any sane coach would take a knee and go to halftime with a lead. Not Brady and the Allen. They dialed up a bomb to D.J. Moore, and while it fell incomplete, it just goes to show you they are going to be aggressive in any and all situations.
They also lined up to go for it twice in field goal range on fourth-and-short. They failed to convert one and committed a penalty on the other, but expect them to be a little more aggressive than they were last year—although they’ve always been pretty aggressive on fourth down. Oh, and there was a hook-and-ladder thrown in there in the first half.
The good news is that aggressiveness can can also get the Bills in trouble. Allen made an absolutely bone-headed throw during their game-winning drive that would’ve—and should’ve—been the game-losing pass.
4. Tight ends could be a problem
By now, you may have seen the graphic that shows the Bills were in 13 personnel (one running back, three tight end) 50 percent of the time. And while that puts a ton of pressure on the defense, I’m more just concerned about what Dalton Kincaid can do to a defense on his own. He hauled in five catches for 130 yards against the Texans, displaying his elusiveness and athleticism.
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“He’s a mismatch in the pass game, man,” Dan Campbell said Tueday. “He’s one of these big skill, get through the defense, one-on-one matchups.”
Last week, the Lions did an okay job against the Saints tight ends. Noah Fant caught four catches for 33 yards and a touchdown, while Juwan Johnson had three for 54 and a score.
Perhaps the assumed debut of Lions nickelback Christian Izien will help, but with the threat of Allen running, a decent run game, and a lethal play-action pass, Kincaid feels like a nightmare matchup.
5. Penalty prone?
It’s a one-game sample size, but the Bills committed 10 penalties for 85 yards—five of which gave the Texans a first down. They were particularly handsy in the secondary, committing four defensive holding penalties and a defensive pass interference. Five different defensive backs were called for a penalty, but that may just be something the Bills will live with, because they were sticky in coverage, allowing the seventh-lowest separation rate of all Week 1 teams.
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