Take a quick look at FanDuel’s listed odds for the Eastern Conference Champion and you’ll see the defending-champion New York Knicks there at +340. After them, you have the Philadelphia 76ers (+400), Boston Celtics (+500), Detroit Pistons (+850), and Cleveland Cavaliers (+900) rounding out the top five.
However, there is one team missing from that top five that may just be better than all of those championship hopefuls, and that is the Toronto Raptors, who currently sit at sixth-place in the Eastern Conference title race at +950 (an implied probability of 9.5%). If you ask me, this is a gross underestimation of their abilities, and the basketball world is going to rue the day they counted out the Raptors.
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There’s a reason SB Nation considers Toronto a top-5 championship contender in the entire league entering the season. Now that they have finally officially landed Kawhi Leonard, the Raptors all the pieces necessary to be a darkhorse for the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
Why the Raptors are so good
I may be as bullish as anyone I know on the Raptors, but it’s hard not to be after seeing the unique way they were able to improve their team this offseason.
Let me explain. The Raptors and Pistons are not too dissimilar in the sense that they were both elite defensive teams (Raptors were 5th in defensive rating, Pistons were second), lead by their top five picks from the 2021 NBA Draft (Scottie Barnes, Cade Cunningham), who were using this offseason to find ways to get over the hump offensively (15th in offensive rating, 10th).
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For the Pistons, they had to go about this in a very orthodox way. Additions like Isaiah Joe, John Collins, and Ebuka Okorie helped improve their offense. But to get these guys they got rid of Isaiah Stewart (arguably the team’s second-best per minute defender), Tobias Harris (a metronomic veteran presence), and Caris LeVert (67th percentile Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus, per Dunks & Threes). Simply put, they improved their offense, but had to take a hit on defense to do so.
The Raptors’ big offseason acquisition (which looks like it won’t be getting rescinded by the league front office) involved trading Brandon Ingram, Gradey Dick, and first/second round draft capital in exchange for two-time NBA champion Kawhi Leonard.
Dick, while still a promising player in my opinion, hardly factored into head coach Darko Rajakovic’s rotation last season (averaging just 14 minutes per game), so his loss won’t really be felt. That means that from an on-court perspective, the Raptors swapped Ingram for Leonard – a player who is not only a far superior offensive player, but a marginally better defender as well.
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Not only is Leonard an upgrade on both ends of the floor, but he is also an easier fit alongside other high-usage players. Last season, the Raptors were better with Scottie Barnes on the floor on his own than they were when he shared the floor with Ingram. Meanwhile, the 2018-19 Raptors were better with Leonard and Pascal Siakam (a player with similar offensive shortcomings to Barnes) on the floor together than they were when just one of them was on the court.
The Raptors’ other marquee edition was Allen Graves, who they took with the 19th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. I’m not going to pretend to be some draft aficionado, but everything I’ve seen from Graves thus far screams immediate two-way impact player. At the very least, he certainly doesn’t tilt their team one way or the other.
Unlike the Pistons, the Raptors were able to build upon their weakness while also avoiding diminishing from their strength. This is without noting that, even with the 35-year-old Leonard, the Raptors are still fairly young. If Rajakovic’s head is in the same place as mine, it’ll mean that the other four players in Toronto’s starting lineup (Barnes, Collin-Murray Boyles, Immanuel Quickley, and RJ Barrett) will all be 27 years old or younger. Then, off the bench they’ll have Graves, Jamal Shead, and Ja’Kobe Walter (all of whom are under 24); plus Jakob Poeltl and Kyle Anderson there to provide some much-needed veteran experience. Tons of room for in-house improvement, but also enough steadiness to survive the rigors of the NBA season.
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Yes, all of this hinges on Leonard’s health, which, before last season, was as reliable as a restroom soap dispenser. Prior to 2025-26, Leonard had only played over 60 games once since the last time he called Air Canada home. But is that any more risky than the Celtics relying on Jayson Tatum and Paul George, or a playstyle that keeps leading to upsets in the playoffs? Is it more risky than the 76ers starting a lineup with a 42-year-old, the basketball analytics equivalent of a flat Earther, and Joel Embiid (who has an even more checkered availability history than Leonard)? What about a Cavaliers team with three non-shooters in their opening five and two guards with durability concerns and a huge target hovering over them on defense? Is it riskier than that? I don’t think so.
All the teams favored over the Raptors have some glaring holes (heck, even the Knicks have to overcome the loss of Mitchell Robinson). On paper, the Raptors have the fewest flaws of any Eastern Conference team. And in the playoffs, the team that comes out alive is usually the one with the least amount of weaknesses.
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